observer.com / MA John Schindler, | 27. 01. 2017 to 06: 38h

http://www.blic.rs/vesti/svet/trampova-prva-medunarodna-kriza-desice-se-na-balkanu/h5kxs45

Given the decade and a half of warfare in remote areas after the attack on September 11. Now, it is easy to forget how much time Western spies, military and diplomats nineties conducted in an effort to save itself from the Balkans, writes John Schindler from "Observer".

The disintegration of Yugoslavia in 1991 left behind the violence and turmoil, and NATO, led by the United States, was given the role that solves a nasty mess. Today, a generation later, a temporary solution that is tailored Washington experienced decay, in a volatile region of South Eastern Europe once again be able to return to war, said John Schindler, a security expert and analyst Bisi National Security Agency (NSA).

Bosnia and Herzegovina, which in the nineties attracted huge media attention ten years subsists as polupropala country. Steeped in crime and corruption, not to mention a serious problem with Islamic extremism, Bosnia's sick in the political, economic and social terms. Unusual makeshift arrangement, which is at the end of 1995 in Dayton brought about President Bill Clinton to Bosnia held together after the terrible civil war in the country, was never meant to be more than short-term solutions.

However, Bosnia is still trapped in the Dayton system, in a weak state with its headquarters in Sarajevo, and the authority which is passed on to the two pseudo-state entities: the Federation of BiH, dominated by Muslims (with a slight Croatian minority) and the Republic of Serbian. In this strange organization nobody is satisfied. Muslims have too much power, Serbs are insufficient, and Croats are unhappy that they do not have their own, the third entity.

The leadership of the Republic of Serbian after years of frustration, threatening to pull out of the Dayton Agreement. President Milorad Dodik, who is fraudulently led his para-state in the last 20 years, does not hide revived nationalism. His threat to withdraw from the RS to the Dayton Agreement are no longer a fantasy. Washington has recently punished by Dodik had imposed sanctions for attempting to sabotage the agreement at Dayton. To him, however, is not scared and declared the US ambassador in Sarajevo "proven enemy" Bosnian Serbs "not welcome in the Serbian Republic."

Since you have just strained relations between the Serbs and the government in Sarajevo, which is dominated by Muslims, were the reason that pushed the country into civil war and genocide in 1992, Dodik's moves islustruju devastating modest political progress - despite more than twenty years of Western political and military intervention and billions of dollars of aid invested in combating fratricidal tendencies in Bosnia.

Even worse situation in Kosovo, the former Serbian province, which has gained its independence thanks to the 78-day NATO bombing in 1999 which forced Belgrade to obedience. Tensions strengthen due to frequent provocation from Belgrade. Serbia insists on the independence of the north of Kosovo, where many Serbs (Albanians make up more than ninety percent of Kosovo's population, numbering 1.9 million people, while four percent are Serbs, most of whom live in the north around Mitrovica, near Serbia).

Belgrade has recently been sent to Mitrovica carts decorated with the slogan "Kosovo is Serbia" printed in 21 languages, as Albanians experienced as a deliberate provocation. Fortunately, the train returned before he came to Kosovo, but the escalation of the crisis averted - for now. However, the Serbian president, a great nationalist, threatened to send an army to Kosovo if someone harms local Serbs, which would re-started ominous inter-ethnic war, which was terminated by NATO bombing in 1999.

Kosovo's leadership has reacted by making it asked the EU to calm Belgrade before things get out of control, and some Albanians mention the revival of the Kosovo Liberation Army, the rebel force that successfully fought against the Belgrade regime in 1990. Since Kosovo has no army, but the paramilitary police - NATO insisted on disarmament in order to prevent future conflict - every Albanian attempt to rearm will only encourage even worse behavior of Serbia. Not to mention that, due to the fact that hundreds of Muslims from Kosovo joined the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and to Jihad veterans now returning home, has a well-armed Albanians who were also eager for war.

No strengthening of Serb nationalism is not accidental. As I wrote two years ago, Vladimir Putin poking Republic of Serbian as official Kremlin ideology that implies solidarity Slovenian Orthodox dekandentni compared to the West, gaining ground among many Serbs - particularly in Bosnia, which is under the occupation of the West in 1995. years. Moscow has cultivated Dodik politically and financially, while encouraging his increasingly vocal criticism of the Dayton system.

Russian interference in Serbia itself zabrinjavauće. It is no coincidence as provocative train from Belgrade to Kosovo manufactured in Russia. The presence of Russian intelligence services in Serbia is very large and conspicuous, and has recently established a spy base in the south of the country, whose purpose is obvious follow-up activities in the western region. Two months ago, Russia, Belarus and Serbia have carried out joint military exercises on Serbian territory "Slovenian brotherhood", a demonstration of anti-NATO forces.

Most importantly, the Moscow Belgrade recently donated a modern armament, including 60 armored vehicles (half of the tanks T-72) and six MiGs-29th These planes are changing situation in the region. Russian planes, which should arrive this spring, will be Serbia, the only former Yugoslav republic that has combat jets. Croatia, a member of NATO, has dozens of decommissioned MiG 21s, which are generations older than the Mig-29, and since we have not been maintained for years only a handful will be able to fly. Without the help of NATO Zagreb, Serbian airplanes will dominate in this region.

However, the biggest concern at the moment is the risk that the Balkans are the secrets of the Kremlin spy game, to call a special war: espionage, subversion, propaganda and terrorism. In November last year, operatives linked to Russian intelligence service were preparing to carry out a coup in Montenegro, a small former Yugoslav republic on the Adriatic Sea, which aspires to join NATO, but politicians in Belgrade who are not in the least interested in the spađaju Moscow, considered that such murderers from the shadows could be a threat for them. Given Putin's habit of targeting people who he does not like the nefarious way, it seems that the fears are justified.

It's pretty clear what Putin wants the Balkans, namely, the political chaos that will occupy the attention of the West, which in the nineties made himself guardian of the region. He will be ready to risk a local war to do so, because the Russians will not be the ones who will be most dying. The political solution that is tailored NATO pre dvaddesetak years there are more fragile and Moscow are ready to use it. Like many Russians, Putin sees Western intervention in Bosnia and Kosovo as an attack on the Slovenian Orthodox world and plans revenge.

At the moment NATO deploys forces in Poland and the Baltic Russia to turn away from adventure, but Russian saber rattling to test the resolve Alliance, 2017 could be moved to the Balkans, where states are weak and wobbly western control works. Bearing in mind what happened when the Russian intelligence service last time encourage and assist Serbian secret machinations in Bosnia (murder of Crown Prince Ferdinand), the United States and our European allies really need urgently to defuse Southeast Europe, before problems get out of control and mass violence again reign forever troubled region.

Written by John Schindler, a security expert and analyst Bisi National Security Agency (NSA)

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Above is all google translation.

Original site ha some photos.

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