PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGE BULLETINS
June 14, 2001 by MW Mandeville

ITEM(S): Early Merry Christmas and Happy new year From Alonso Franco J.

This latest prediction of Polar Motion (Alonso Franco J. is a mechanical engineer in Columbia) prompted him to send his card early.

Below is his analysis and projection of polar motion through the remainder of this year. He used a method of analyzing the rate of change in the radius of the wobble since 1998 to compose a projection from this point on.

He predicts that the size of the wobble will begin to exceed all normal maximums in about August of this year. This is currently the tendency because of an unsual speed up of the distance covered by the wobble.

This effect can be seen in the attached photo. On the bottom a red/brown line can be seen crossing the blue spiral circles of the last X MAX spiral in 1998 (which was historically nearly as large as the wobble gets) This point is August 1, 2001. From the period of April through August, the wobble plot of the pole can be seen to cross three spiral plots (in blue) of the wobble since 1998. Over a period of six months that is a rate of change of the radius of the wobble which normally takes about half of the complete wobble spiral cycle, about three and a half years.

Alonso points out that this extension of the wobble so far out into new "territory" probably makes the spin stability of the Earth more unstable, more prone to upset by other factors.

Please note that this graph does not look exactly like the Wobbletracs or my charts. That is because the data used by the polar motion database in mathematically the reverse sign (mirror image) of the way computer spreadsheets normally display and make graphs. So this image by Alsonso is a double-flipped mirror image of the Wobbletrack and Excel charts in the
Earth Systems Monitor site.

For the puposes of anlysis and prediction, it makes no difference.

This is not happy Earth News. At miNimum this will accelerate major activity in the Earth's crust. The current high levels of shaking, quaking, and spreading in the South Seas (quite often running more than 50% of the world's 5.0+ quakes) is likely a direct reflection of this acceleration of the wobble. If this motion continues we can expect a contining record outbreak of Earthquake activity and the last half of the year will be more virulent than the first half of the year. If there is no
sudden avalanche of the pole in 2001 I can predict that the next El Nino will onset early next year and will be the nastiest one on record while global warming stats heat up substantially.

One more point in answer to Alsonso's question: Columbia in Cosa Nostra Damus refers to your country.

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Hello Michael:

Herewith, I am annexing you my last analysis on the X vs Y movement for the north pole. This graph was constructed extrapolating the current speed of change of the pole radii, which is now increasing over all means.

As you can appreciate, the present cycle (red curve) overpasses three inner cycles in half a year and if the current tendency (brown curve) continues, for mid august, the polar radii will overpass its historic maximums. In this point, the earth globe is very sensible to any influence, similarly to a swing in its higher position. So any asteroid, CME, abnormal weather or so, can cause great damage.

So in the event this will unleash the Phoenix five avalanche, I will not be able to greet you by year end. So, please have in advance a merry Christmas and a happy new year.

One more point.

In the third verse of the Cosa Nostradamus Joan mentions Columbia
summer. Will you please be so kind to check with her whether this
Columbia refers to a US state or to my South America country.

With my best regards:

Alonso Franco J.