I downloaded the ISDN copy of the video several weeks ago. The ISDN version of the video gives a picture that is about twice as big. The file size is about 7.1 meg. The way I found the video was that some anonymous caller to Robbie Noel's talk show (see Robbie's http://www.eaglesup.com website) happened to mention it. Now, if I wanted to stir up people, calling into right-wing broadcasts like Robbies would be a primary way I would promote such disinformation. So I didn't feel the information was off to a good start.

Here is my analysis as to why I think it was an unbelievable fake.

"So I went ahead and I bought this camera." This shows that there should be a low level of sophistication in the quality of the tape. Yet the scene changes showed none of the video noise that normally occurs when shutting a handheld camera off and on.

Secondly, the sound levels. Street sounds are heard on the tape. If the guy was recording live then he would have to be shouting over the traffic noise. Not a very "secure" method of creating a tactical tape. Shouting your plans on a street corner is not an approved method.

Most cameras have sound leveling built in so evertime he said something the sound level of traffic should have reduced. It didn't.

So obviously, for the above reasons, the guy did some editing of the raw footage at a later point. This is more than a simple "I went ahead and bought this camera" level of ability. If his base has an editing studio he could use, he shouldn't have had to buy his own camera, he could have borrowed one instead. The editing studio obviously can do visual cuts that don't create video noise and has the ability to record sound on sound.

Next, the "names" were too "cool" and "fortunate". The black guy in the unit is call "Raven" (a black bird). The white guy who will be talking to the skinheads is called "Cracker" (common jive for white guys).

The leader creating the tape was obviously a Viet Nam vet. Slang French usage of "boucou". And Vietnames usage of "didi-mao out of there". I'm also told the that shoes shown at the beginning of the tape are a specific kind of remake of the Vietnames sandles which you can buy out of the back of "Soldier of Fortune".

"Hobo" gets left behind? Why? They should have had a prearranged safe house for him to report to for later pickup. This doesn't fit.

"There's alot of pressure from upstairs to get this thing done right." Obviously an attempt to implicate Clinton. It fits the theory that Clinton wants Martial Law so he can suspend next year's elections and stay in control. Too obvious.

"If the situation is crazy enough, the civilian autorities are gonna have no other choice but to call in our boys to fix it." Obviously, if a riot gets out of control and the NYPD can't hold it, the first ones being called in will be the NY National Guard. Is this supposed to be a NG operation, or US Military? Where is the base? Fort Dix? Would NYNG members have so little regard for friends and neighbors that they would go along with this operation to "close down the island"?

If this is a NG operation then how can it be that "there's gonna be a lotta of hot lead flyin' every which way all around here"? Currently the NG has been basically disarmed. The NG Armories are only allowed to stock 3 rounds per weapon currently. The rest is locked down in California. If the NYNG get re-ammoed in December that will be a bit of a warning to all concerned.

If any of this were true, the rest of the country gets a couple of hours of notice to beware. Those in LA watching at 9 PM as the ball drops in NYC would be given some time before martial law is called in LA.

Also, isn't it "cool" that the guy whose brother was able to leak this tape was able to register the CrowdedTheater.com domain? The NYC operation could easily be called Operation Crowded Theater based on the number of people that will be there in the "Theater of Operation". And the military people in the film are obviously shouting "fire", as it were, in this Theater. But by the same token, as a fake, this film is "shouting fire" to those watching it as well. And the email address given on the webpage of fire@crowdedtheater.com seems a little too obvious as well.

I'm sticking with the obvious theory that this thing is just what Wired and Village Voice claims. Think of it as a Martial Law version of the Blair Witch Project. Cheap to create and film, but still effective in causing fear in the audience.