George Orwell Quote:

"War is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. War is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not victory"

NightSky

How many times have we heard that a peace deal with Iran “is almost finalized” or “could be signed today”? And how many times has it not happened? Sometimes I feel like I am watching a really twisted version of “Groundhog Day” where people wake up each day and decide to believe the same lies over and over again. Iran is never, ever, ever going to sign anything unless it includes an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. But Israel just launched a major military operation against Hezbollah in response to a spike in drone attacks against Israeli targets. If Hezbollah would quit sending drones into Israel, perhaps we could get somewhere, but Iran either can’t or won’t get Hezbollah to stop their terror attacks. So the Israelis plan to “strike them decisively”, and that is going to seriously upset the Iranians. Unless some sort of a miracle causes the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah to stop, a peace deal with Iran is impossible right now.

There is so much confusion about the negotiations that are taking place between the United States and Iran.

First of all, a permanent end to the war is not being negotiated.

What is being negotiated is a 60 day ceasefire extension. During that 60 days, the Strait of Hormuz would be temporarily “reopened” under Iranian management, and U.S. forces would pull back and suspend the blockade of Iranian ports.

Once the 60 day ceasefire extension is signed, there would be a limited window of time for negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program. The Trump administration is insisting that Iran must hand over their enriched uranium, and the Iranians continue to deny that they have agreed to do this.

I don’t see how the Trump administration and the Iranians will ever come to an agreement on the nuclear issues.

I really don’t.

But the 60 day ceasefire extension must be signed before we ever get to that stage, and that simply is not going to happen as long as Israel and Hezbollah are still fighting.

According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is “at war with Hezbollah” and he is pledging that the IDF will “press the pedal even harder”…

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he instructed the military to “press the pedal even harder” against Hezbollah, after a US official signaled that Washington would approve a larger operation against the Iran-backed terror group amid a surge in drone attacks.

“We are at war with Hezbollah. Just in recent weeks, our brave fighters have eliminated more than 600 terrorists,” Netanyahu says in a video statement. “But we are not taking our foot off the gas. On the contrary, I have instructed them to press the pedal even harder.”

“We will strike them. Yes, they are attacking us with drones, cyber-enabled drones, and we have a special team working on this — and we will solve that too…But what this requires from us now is to intensify the blows, increase the force. We will strike them decisively,” the premier says.

This is a major military operation.

Within a 24 hour period, the IDF hit more than 70 Hezbollah targets all over Lebanon…

The IDF says it struck more than 70 Hezbollah infrastructure sites across Lebanon over the past 24 hours, including around 10 command centers and weapons depots in the city of Tyre.

The military says it used more than 85 munitions to target the sites, which were “used by Hezbollah to advance terror attacks against IDF troops and Israeli civilians.”

The IDF also says the air force struck and killed Hezbollah operatives riding motorcycles in an area where troops are operating in southern Lebanon.

As long as Israel is conducting such attacks, Iran is never going to sign anything.

And Israel isn’t going to stop as long as Hezbollah keeps sending drones into Israel.

As I write this article, large numbers of people are feeling from the southern areas of Beirut.

The reason they are evacuating is because they are concerned about Israeli airstrikes, and Iran is warning that any Israeli airstrikes on Beirut could cause the negotiations with the United States to completely collapse…

Iran has warned Washington that any Israeli attack on Beirut or the city’s southern suburbs would seriously threaten ongoing efforts to end the war and could collapse the current diplomatic track, according to Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem citing an Iranian official source.

The warning comes as negotiations involving Tehran, Washington and regional mediators continue in Doha amid growing efforts to secure a broader understanding tied to the Strait of Hormuz and regional de-escalation.

Of course if the Iranians actually wanted peace to prevail in Lebanon, all they would have to do would be to get Hezbollah to stop conducting drone attacks.

So why won’t they do that?

Someone should really ask the Iranians that question.

As long as Israel and Hezbollah continue fighting, there is zero chance that Iran will sign anything.

But for a moment let’s assume that a miracle occurs and the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah stops and we witness a 60 day ceasefire extension.

In order for any sort of a permanent peace deal with Iran to be achieved, they are going to have to agree to hand over their enriched uranium, and they continue to steadfastly refuse to compromise on this issue…

Later Sunday, however, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran has not agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile. The source said Iran’s nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary agreement with the United States.

“The nuclear issue will be addressed in negotiations for a final agreement and is therefore not part of the current deal. There has been no agreement over Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile to be shipped out of the country,” said the source.

Last week, Iranian sources claimed that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, had issued a directive that the near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad.

The Trump administration is not willing to waver on this issue either…

US President Donald Trump insists that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile will either be turned over to the US or destroyed at another location with International Atomic Energy Agency oversight, amid ongoing talks on an agreement with Iran.

“The Enriched Uranium (Nuclear Dust!) will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event,”
Trump writes on Truth Social.

I don’t see how the matter of Iran’s enriched uranium is going to get resolved.

I also don’t see how the matter of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz is going to get resolved either.

But before we get to those hurdles, the fighting in Lebanon has got to stop.

Unless the Iranians restrain Hezbollah, how is that supposed to happen?

I understand why people are hoping for peace. I certainly don't want a war, nor innocents to be killed.

But even getting a short-term ceasefire extension signed will be very difficult.

In fact, as I am writing this article U.S. fighter jets have attacked Iranian naval vessels…

Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem says an Iranian source claimed heavy gunfire heard near Bandar Abbas began after the IRGC targeted a vessel at sea, followed by US fighter jets striking IRGC naval boats in the Gulf.

According to the source, several IRGC Navy personnel were killed.

“The situation is still unfolding,” the source said.

Those that are boldly proclaiming that “the end of the war is here” are not being realistic.

This isn’t the end of anything.

This is just the beginning.