Eventually Israel will nuke Iran before anyone else. They aren't desperate enough at the moment, but they are approaching the zero hour.

Before the Trump deadline someone asked what the chances were for a nuke to go off. I wrote a response online that 2 weeks ago the chances were 50%. But the night before the deadline, I said the chances were less than 5%. Today it has changed again and is going back up to at least 25%.

There will be no invasion of Iran at all. That ship has already sailed.
Iran already has plenty of nukes they acquired from other countries over the years. And they have already built more. The idea they will scramble to build them is complete nonsense.

The concept that the west has to rush to hit them before they put together a nuke is childish. The question though remains...will Iran use a nuke first. The answer is NO, No, No.

It is Israel, when they are desperate enough, that will be the one that launches a nuke first. Afterwards, Iran and possibly other players will launch nukes on Israel.
I would place a bet on Pakistan being a prime player in launching a nuke around the same time Iran does. However, we are not at that threshold yet and things can change. So we are a few days or weeks away from facing such a possible scenario.

Mentally and emotionally I would've never imagined the day before Trump's deadline that the chances someone would use a nuke would only be 5%. But things changed behind the scenes, and the reality of those events could not be ignored.

Trump's irrational, erratic and bombastic statements and decisions caused the public and the military to lose trust in him as president. The truth is, if he would have given the green light for the attack and invasion of Iran, a large percentage of the US military would have not carried through with the orders. He could not risk that embarrassment.

I will say this, the recent massive attack by Israel against Lebanon was not a sign of strength or offensive power. on the contrary...it was a sign of utter weakness and desperation. The Israelis have been stopped on the ground by Hezbollah and only had one offensive option to use besides nukes, and that was to use their bombers to bomb a city to murder innocent people that had no defense or air force.

But afterwards they still can't invade northward or hold any conquered ground. All they accomplished was to rile up more hatred towards them from hundreds of millions of people in many nations to gear up for war against Israel.

Israel and the US are losing...and Trump is pretending to have a peace deal and a cease fire. But he has nothing. His hands are now tied and he can no longer give the order to invade.

He is now in a holding pattern hoping Iran will agree to a peace deal. So as it stands now, everything and everyone is in limbo. A Pakistani leader made a very accusatory and aggressive statement against Israel. This is a sign the Pakistan gov. is one step closer to entering the war and will back up their statements with nuclear missiles.
Also, that is where the so-called peace talks are supposed to be held soon. However, Iran has no compunction or motivation to moderate their stance or compromise their position in any peace talks.
If anything they are now more emboldened and have extra fuel for their revenge at this time. Whatever we hear in the news media does not reflect the attitude on the ground. Trump and Israel are bluffing. They no longer have any cards to play.

Even if Iran is destroyed, the retaliation is guaranteed to be massive against Israel and the U.S. and the state of Israel will be toast - they will no longer exist. The US will then limp back home. That is the automatic outcome.

However, there is still a chance that the conflict can be defused. With each day that passes without a major outbreak of war, the dust settles and the defusing of the conflict increases. And, that would mean a cessation of violence for the time being. We are at a crossroads..and where it goes from here is anyone's guess. George Eaton