And $93 oil is $140 . . .

By Gold & Geopolitics - March 17, 2026

Treasury Secretary Bessent went on television Monday and announced that the United States is “allowing” Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. “The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world”.

Iran has been controlling who enters and exits that waterway since day 5. Chinese tankers have sailed freely since day 1.

A Pakistani Aframax called the Karachi just carried Abu Dhabi crude through the Strait, paid for in yuan, on Iran’s terms with Iran’s public thanks. The US didn’t allow anything. Iran allowed the Karachi. The US watched.

The markets didn’t care about the truth. Oil crashed 8% in 12 hours. WTI fell from $99 to $92. Brent dropped below $97. The machines read the headline, did what machines do, and moved the number. Problem solved.

War’s over. Bessent said so.

Meanwhile, in the physical world where actual barrels move on actual ships, Singapore fuel oil hit a record $140 per barrel. Up 146% since the war started. Kuwait’s oil output was halved – 1.3 million barrels a day, down from 2.6 million in February. UAE production fell to 2 million from 3.56 million. These aren’t simple export disruptions anymore. This is a full blown production collapse. Countries that can’t ship are running out of room to store what they pump.

Pre-war Hormuz flow: 20 million barrels per day. Current: roughly 6.7 million. Iran exporting 1.2 million. UAE pushing 1 million through Fujairah. Saudi Arabia rerouting 4 million through Yanbu on the Red Sea. Everyone else – scraps.

Except Fujairah got hit. Again. Its pumping equipment was targeted. The port that was supposed to bypass the Strait is offline. The bypass needs a bypass now.

The WTI futures market appears to have concluded the Iran war ended yesterday while forgetting to inform the refined product market, which continues to tighten. And the real achievement of all this jawboning is a delay in the production response the world actually needs to offset the shortfall.

Paper says peace. Physical says war.

The USS Abraham Lincoln, the most powerful aircraft carrier in the US Navy’s fleet, has retreated to a position 1,100 kilometres from Iran. Chinese satellites confirmed it sheltering near Salalah, Oman, tucked behind coastal mountain ranges.

Nothing says winning like . . .

[SNIP]