We like the deep weeds, most do not. The geopolitical ramifications of the U.S. confrontation with Iran are vast and complicated; however, to encapsulate one of the most interesting dynamics consider this ‘tldr’ statement to open the discussion with your friends: Right now, Russia is like Amazon during COVID-19.

What follows is not me saying President Trump and President Putin are holding nightly conversations, discussing steps or details, or even obliquely coordinating measures as Trump eliminates the generational threat posed by Iran.

However, I am saying that given the nature of all contact and communication between Trump and Putin, including extensive contacts by their representative emissaries, both Putin and Trump are well aware of each downstream effect from the Iranian confrontation.

Two days after the U.S./Israel began Operation Epic Fury, President Vladimir Putin said Russia should consider shutting down oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) shipments to the EU in advance of the previously scheduled April deadline date when the EU would stop purchases.

♦ First, remember ‘force majeure’ contract nullification is in place for every producer, supplier and transporter in the middle east. Second, with shipments from the Gulf of Oman greatly reduced, LNG prices along with oil prices are increasing rapidly. The result – ships filled with oil and LNG currently on the water are diverting in real time as international bidding for the content of the ships take place.

If Putin stops selling LNG to Europe, and Europe cannot get LNG from the Gulf of Oman, and China/Asia are LNG dependent (not exporting), then where is Europe going to get the LNG to replace what Russia will no longer provide?

Answer: The United States, and to a lesser extent, Norway.

[SIDENOTE: now does President Trump continuously smacking Great Britain about shutting down their North Sea oil and gas operations take on context? Geopolitical foresight? I digress. END SIDENOTE]

The European Commission’s decision to phase out and ultimately stop purchasing Russian oil/gas was made in 2025 prior to the Iran conflict triggering. Europe’s replacement plan included increased LNG purchases from the U.S., Norway and middle east; the latter supply option is now void.

Europe’s decision to stop buying oil/gas from Russia puts them in a very precarious position. The supply option for Europe is suddenly very limited, and Putin’s statement about stopping the flow early was obviously made with this understanding in mind.

[Go back to the sidenote above. Without question President Trump already knew that an LNG supply restriction from the middle east would disproportionately hurt Europe. Both President Trump and President Putin would understand this geopolitically obvious fact/reality.]

If Europe now has to purchase more LNG from America (at higher prices) President Trump’s leverage over Europe increases. If both oil and LNG prices increase substantially, the price of oil/LNG currently on the water increases.

[SIDENOTE #2 – Previously the EU confiscated their holdings of the Russian Sovereign Wealth Fund, value €210 billion held in Euroclear and another €50 billion from other G-7 countries; total €260 billion. From those seized assets the EU created a €90 billion loan scheme to Ukraine with no repayment mechanism, because the EU predicts Russia will be forced to pay reparations for war and the negotiated settlement will deduct the €90 billion loan scheme from the balance.

Hungary, a Trump ally, is currently blocking the transfer of funds; but this payment scheme -created by the EU holding the assets- underpins why the EU will not permit the conflict to end without their approval. END SIDENOTE]

♦ To increase distribution of oil/gas “currently on the water” President Trump and Secretary Bessent have dropped the sanctions against Russian oil and LNG. India and Southeast Asia, not coincidentally both with new U.S. free trade agreements, are suddenly bidding customers for previously sanctioned oil/gas.

Here it is important to note that ‘sanctioned’ oil and gas sales were done in the transactional currencies of the selling and buying country (see BRICS). However non-sanctioned oil/gas, traditional OPEC market oil/gas products, are bought and sold using petrodollars. If Russia is suddenly allowed to sell to OPEC market customers, then petrodollars will likely back the transaction. Who wins, Putin (higher prices) & Trump (leverage and petrodollar). Who loses, the EU.

Now, you know how much I love timelines to explain things…. So consider:

On August 15, 2025, Vladimir Putin and President Trump met in Alaska. One of the key points that followed the meeting was both Trump and Putin discussing a realignment of strategic interests surrounding energy development.

On August 18, 2025, three days after the Alaska meeting:

[SOURCE]

We do not believe in coincidences at this level.

We have been waiting.

Two days ago, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the easing of sanctions against Russian oil/LNG exports, specifically toward Asia in order to relieve some of the global supply constraints. {SOURCE} Yesterday, Moscow announced the redirection of Russian oil/LNG exports to Asia {SOURCE}.

“Our companies are considering opportunities, ​without waiting for ​further restrictions from Europe, to conclude ‌new long-term contracts with ​our partners ​and redirect some of the gas from Europe to other countries, including India, Thailand, ​the Philippines and ‌the People’s Republic of China,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak ​said.

♦ Before February 28, European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) liquified natural gas traded around 35 euros per megawatt hour. As of March 6, TTF settled at 52.81 euros, a 50 percent monthly surge in the value of LNG to Europe.

Asian Japan Korea Marker (JKM) spot cargoes, the benchmark LNG price assessment, are trading above $20 per million BTU, with Bangladesh paying $28.28 for emergency deliveries.

The difference between Russia selling LNG to hostile Europe or selling Russian LNG to friendly Asia at post gulf crisis premiums is the widest it has been since the post pandemic (2022) ‘Build Back Better” energy crisis.

Russia supplied 13.8 million tonnes of LNG to Europe in 2025. The EU is phasing Russian gas out: short-term contracts banned beginning in April, full LNG ban by year end 2025, pipeline gas fully banned by 2027.

Russia is not fighting the EU bans; Russia is finding new customers at higher prices. Every tonne Russia redirects to Asia before the EU ban was scheduled to begin creates a potential long-term contract at a premium price with a buyer who will not legislate Russia out of the relationship.

Qatar and all shippers and suppliers declared force majeure after Iranian drones struck Ras Laffan facility on March 2, 2026. Approximately 20% of global LNG went offline. Asian buyers are now bidding against Europe for every tanker “on the water.” Russia has a lot of supply on the water and the ability to put a lot more into the market quickly.

Hormuz is closed, at least temporarily, through forced reinsurance withdrawal triggered by the U.K (Lloyds insurance market). And Russia, the one major energy exporter whose supply chains run through neither the Gulf nor the Strait, is the only non-western producer that can deliver to Asia without navigating a war zone.

Right now, Russia is to energy supplies for Asian customers as Amazon was to U.S. consumers during COVID. Both selling to an isolated and captive customer base, who were regulated out of options.

SUMMARY:

(1) Upon reelection President Trump told all U.S. energy providers to “drill baby drill” and maximize energy production. Trump then deregulated the industry for maximum efficiency: Secretaries Burgum (Interior), Wright (Energy) and Zeldin (EPA).

(2) Trump then meets with Putin in Alaska Aug 15, 2025. Three days later, Aug 18, 2025, Putin restarts Russia’s flagship Arctic project, the LNG export facility via the Northern Route to Asia.

(3) President Trump then signs contracts with Finland for the urgent start of Arctic icebreaking ship manufacturing in the USA and emphasizes the prior conversation about taking over Greenland which infuriates the Dutch and EU.

(4) President Trump then triggers the Venezuela operation, captures Nicholas Maduro and -in addition to other benefits- forms a new strategic oil development relationship with the interim Venezuela government. Russia stays silent.

(5) President Trump then triggers Operation Epic Fury against Iran; completely changing the geopolitical landscape that surrounds energy partnerships. Energy flows through the Gulf of Oman are impacted.

(6) President Trump then removes specific sanctions against Russia permitting Russian oil and LNG to be sold (in petrodollars) into the Asian market. Meanwhile, the European Union is forced to increase LNG purchases from the United States.

Sure, it could all be just coincidence… or not. One thing is certain, the FIVE-EYES opposition do not think all of this downstream benefit that flows to Russia and the USA is coincidental. The FIVE-EYES opposition see all of this as a strategic realignment between the USA and Russia, and they are going to do everything in their power to stop it.
Now does this sudden news story make sense?

pics and links at

theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/03/07/right-now-russia-is-like-amazon-during-covid/#more-281304