By Nick Giambruno - February 20, 2026

Warren Buffett once referred to derivatives as “financial weapons of mass destruction.”

He wasn’t being dramatic—he was warning that if things went wrong, these complex financial instruments could cause massive, far-reaching damage to the global economy. What Buffett feared most was how a sudden, unexpected market shock could set off a dangerous chain reaction through the financial system, fueled by the hidden risks and tangled interconnections that derivatives create.

These instruments link major banks, hedge funds, and corporations in an intricate web of bets on the future prices of oil, interest rates, currencies, and more.

For example, airlines and energy companies routinely use oil-linked derivatives to hedge or speculate. If oil prices were to surge unexpectedly, the counterparties on the losing end—often large financial institutions—would be on the hook for enormous payouts. That, in turn, would trigger margin calls, liquidity crunches, and potentially forced asset sales.

The fear spreads quickly, because many of these derivative contracts are opaque—no one really knows who is exposed or by how much. That uncertainty can lead to panic in the markets, as everyone starts pulling back at once.

Losses like these rarely stay contained. A default in one part of the system spreads risk outward. If a major player can’t cover its exposure, it endangers its counterparties. If one of those is a major bank, the problem quickly becomes systemic.

This is precisely the kind of domino effect Buffett was describing—a market shock lighting fuses in unexpected places, turning financial interconnectivity into financial fragility.

Because derivatives are so interconnected and can involve huge sums of money, the damage can grow quickly and unpredictably, much like a series of explosions. That’s why Buffett saw them not just as risky tools, but as potential threats to the entire financial system. In other words, financial WMD.

So why bring this up now?

Because a more serious confrontation between the US and Iran appears inevitable—and when it comes, it will almost certainly disrupt the flow of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.

To call that a severe supply disruption would be an understatement.

Consider this . . .

[SNIP]