A new frontrunner has emerged in California’s wide-open race for governor.

Conservative commentator Steve Hilton now leads the field with 17%, followed by Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, who are tied at 14%, according to an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of 1,000 likely voters released Wednesday.

Hilton is a former director of strategy for British Prime Minister David Cameron and a current Fox News contributor. He took in roughly $4.1 million in donations in the second half of 2025, according to campaign finance reports cited by CalMatters.

Bianco had a one point lead over Hilton and Swalwell in early December.

Former Rep. Katie Porter has 10% support in the latest poll and billionaire Tom Steyer has 9% – both are Democrats. Importantly, 21% of respondents said they remain undecided.

Pollsters noted that since December, support for Hilton and Steyer rose five points, support for Swalwell increased two points and support for Porter dipped by one point.

“The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton at 38% and Chad Bianco at 37%, while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voters at 22%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate.”

Outside the top tier, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has struggled to gain traction since entering the race in late January.

“Maybe its because he got in late, but the enthusiasm for his candidacy is not right now translating into votes,” noted political analyst Matt Klink.

California’s primary is set for June 2. The two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to the November general election to determine who will succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited.

With the race in flux, Klink said it is possible California voters could see two Republicans on the November ballot – and no Democrats.

“It is mathematically possible that you could have two Republicans finishing one‑two in the primary,” he said. “That said, I believe the political brains in the Democratic Party will get involved and say we need to make sure we get one of our candidates into the runoff because he or she will likely win the general election.”

The survey was conducted Feb. 13-14 and carries a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Other poll results:

• The survey found 44% approve of Gov. Newsom’s job performance, while 45% disapprove. That represents a three-point drop in approval and a six-point rise in disapproval since the December Emerson/Inside California Politics poll.

• A majority of voters at 53% say they have considered leaving California because of the state’s cost of living.

• Asked to identify the biggest strain on their household budgets, 28% cited housing, 21% utilities and 17% groceries.

• On immigration policy, 41% prefer the Biden administration’s approach, 38% favor Trump’s and 21% prefer neither.

Marc Sternfield is the Director of Digital Content at KTLA 5, where he oversees digital news strategy, streaming, and social media. His editorial focus includes crime and public safety, weather and climate, and consumer news, with an emphasis on the Southern California economy.

Contact Marc: marc.sternfield@ktla.com.