By Erik Wallbank - March 6, 2025
It's hard to decide between Zelensky and Netanyahu as the biggest mass murderer in 2024, but I relished watching Zelensky exposed for who he is by Trump and JD Vance in the Oval Office. Trump's 2nd term is a new administration (once removed), but during his 1st term he armed Ukraine to function as a NATO deterrent against Russia.
Given historical fact, what's the rational for Ukraine paying back the squandered hundred of billions the US gave (not loaned) to have Ukraine fight to the last man? Demanding a devastated Ukraine pay back double — most of which stayed with US arms manufacturers, has little basis in reality. The amount Trump insists on is twice the entire GDP of Ukraine. Does he consider whether they can repay, or the consequences? Does Trump see that UKR "raw earth" (whatever that is), and shared profits from UKR's future is more than reparations put on Germany, post WW1, the reparations that gave us Hitler? Trump tells Z "You don't have the cards". Did UKR ever have the cards? Outside MAGA exuberance, is Trump just another schoolyard bully stealing Ukraine's lunch?
Trump reminds Zelensky that he (Trump), gave UKR Javelins to wipe-out Russian tanks. Does that help negotiations? Scott Bessent, Soros trained, reportedly wants to control all aspects of UKR economy? It's described as: pay us, then feed your children.
Trump tells us tariff is the most beautiful word in the English language. For Trump, it has been, since the 1990's, when he brought tariffs to late nite talk shows. Now, his tariffs are being portrayed as negotiating gambits. They weren't back then so why are they now? Isn't it more likely he's weaponizing trade/dollar? And his tariffs are blanketing sanctions, misrepresented as tariffs. And his focus on fentanyl, is that just a ruse? The question we each need to ask is whether or not Trump knows what he's talking about. When he doesn't know if China/Spain are in NATO/BRICS, is he just playing us? When he speaks about Ukrainian "raw earth", does he know it's actually "rare earth", and he's referring to "raw earth" because he intends to take all of UKR minerals in payment?
Trump is an enigma that will in due time resolve. If he doesn't understand Triffin's dilemma (i.e. the country with a reserve currency has to run a trade deficit to provide currency units for participating nations), his balanced trade deficit will starve the world of needed dollars. Trump's trade policy would then prove fatal to the dollar as the global reserve currency.
Trump will be judged by a number of things: Will he be able to find a way to peace in Ukraine? Will he sit down with Iran and Putin to forge a peace treaty to replace the Iran treaty he shitcanned? Will he back-away from demented-madman Netanyahu, forcing Israel to make peace with its Arab neighbors? More importantly, can he avoid conflict with China? And, as important as everything else, will he take steps to save the dollar?
Difficult issues to be resolved, seemingly, by a peace-loving bully. Canada/Mexico, our biggest trading partners are to be tariffed, across the board, 25%. Does Trump have a strategy, or does his lack of economic understanding put our economy in peril?
Persisting in unquestioned support for Zionism in Palestine or backing Israeli attacks on Iran, while insisting on the degradation of Chinese economic influence at all costs, with a mission to un-unite Russia/China, will, in a worse case scenario, rain hell on us.
Maybe he knows the game's changed and unlike the Global South (BRICS), his underlying strategy is to threaten/control spheres of influence, as he is doing with Ukraine/EU, Greenland, Panama. Unfortunately, Latin America will prove a harder task. It needs to be recognized (possibly Trump does not), that the US, like Ukraine, does not hold the cards. Blather about 100% tariff on any nation not using the dollar in trade (because Trump says so), indicates preference, not outcome. Trump is not the world.
When Trump suggests China and the US could cut defense budgets by half, that would necessitate re-assessing his core belief of "Making America Great Again" at China's expense. Is the US positioned to where it can have a serious economic effect on China now that most Chinese exports are to the Global South? What if China has had enough and stops exports to the US? What happens to US economy/dollar then? What if Trump's attempt to take down China rather than negotiate becomes the kind of colossal mistake like the one we made in Ukraine? What if China/Russia decide our oil sanctions on their ability to trade are an act of war? What if pipsqueak NATO moves forward with sinking Russian ships? Will Trump come to the aid of NATO insanity? Hopefully he won't, but we don't know. When Putin said he would rather have Biden than Trump, heaven forbid he meant it, seeing Trump as an unknowable loose cannon.
As for the economy, most analysts agree it will crash, the question being when? Consider Brent Johnson (i.e. the dollar milkshake theory). His idea comes from the film: There Will Be Blood. In it oil tycoon Daniel Plainview tells a landowner that if he doesn't accept his terms, he will drill/down/sideways to suck away his oil milkshake through a straw. Brent sees dollar reserve currency through that lens. Where he and I part ways is on the question of dollar longevity/durability. He forecasts the eventual death of the dollar, but reserve currency/US sustainability put a dollar demise timeline well into the future. Can $ reserve currency persist for a nonproductive US needing reserve currency status just to keep up with debt service? Brent sees no currency to take its place. What about gold? Brent's been waiting for gold to correct since in the $1600's. What if Brent is wrong, and Trump's strategy is dependent on a US hegemony? One that is no longer credible?
There are no coincidences. Tonight, a 1949 b/w film, All the King's Men, came on, and I watched it again. Broderick Crawford plays Willy Stark, a lightly made-over portrayal of Louisiana Governor, Huey Long (1928/1932), then a Louisiana Senator until he was assassinated in 1935. For both campaigns he ran as the hick savior for overlooked/uncared for rural folk. Could Trump's legacy be that of urban-hick tyrant? Will Trump's desire for a legacy of peace square-up with his willingness to "Make America Great" at other's expense? Will the world, tired of US bullying, prefer Russia/China as business partners as compared to the US with its weaponized dollar and trade policies? Or, will Trump accept multi-polarity decision making as a way to save the republic?
Get my articles by email with a request: erik@neverhadaboss.com. And thank you . . .
