By Nick Giambruno - January 21, 2025

World War 3 is already well underway, even though most don’t recognize it.

Russia, China, and their allies want to transform the current US-led world order that has been in place since the end of WW2 from unipolar to multipolar—giving themselves a bigger seat at the table in the process.

The US and its allies want the unipolar status quo to prevail.

WW3 is unlikely to evolve into a direct kinetic war between the US, Russia, and China because that could invite nuclear Armageddon, where everyone loses.

Instead, WW3 is playing out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological wars, deniable sabotage, and information wars.

This is World War 3. It’s happening right now and rapidly escalating.

2025 could be the year it all comes to a head.

As I see it, World War 3 is a conflict between two geopolitical blocks.

The first block consists of the US and its allies who have hitched their wagons to the unipolar world order.

I’m reluctant to call this block “the West” because the people who control it have values antithetical to Western Civilization.

A more fitting label would be NATO & Friends.

The other block comprises Russia, China, Iran, and other countries favorable to a multipolar world order.

Let’s call them the BRICS+, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other interested countries.

BRICS+ is not a perfect label, but it’s a decent representation of the countries favorable to the multipolar world order.

Some countries don’t fall decisively into one category. I’ve put these countries in a separate Non-Aligned category. They are prime arenas of competition for NATO & Friends and BRICS+.

Below is an approximate map of the geopolitical chessboard as I see it:

I believe proxy warfare will likely determine who wins World War 3 and gets to shape the new world order.

Proxy wars are a method by which major powers fight their battles indirectly, using smaller nations or groups as stand-ins rather than confronting each other directly.

Major powers support, equip, and finance smaller groups or nations in a proxy war to fight against a common adversary. This support can include military training, weapons, funding, and other resources. The critical point is that the major powers do not engage directly in combat.

There are numerous ongoing proxy wars in World War 3.

However, the ones I believe will prove decisive will be in Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Middle East. The other proxy wars are peripheral in comparison.

Unlike in Europe (Russia) or East Asia (China), there is no sophisticated nuclear power to deter NATO & Friends from more aggressive military action in the Middle East. Iran is, therefore, the weak link in the BRICS+ alliance to push for a multipolar world order.

That’s why I expect NATO & Friends will make their last stand to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order and preserve the US-led world order in the Middle East.

The Middle East is roughly divided into two different geopolitical groups.

The first is the US and its allies—Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and others.

(Though Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are members of BRICS+, their true allegiance is with the agenda of NATO & Friends).

The second group consists of Iran and its allies—the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, several Palestinian groups (including Hamas), and an assortment of militias in Iraq.

Iran is a key member of BRICS+ and a proponent of a multipolar world order. That’s why Russia and China stand behind Iran with economic, political, and military support.

In early 2024, the geopolitical momentum in the Middle East appeared to be with Iran and its allies.

However, that all changed recently as the Middle East has undergone its most significant geopolitical transformation in generations.

It culminated with militants supported by Turkey, Israel, and the US overthrowing Bashar al-Assad in Syria. It dealt a severe blow to Iran and its allies and, by extension, the multipolar agenda of BRICS+.

Previously, it seemed Turkey was moving closer to BRICS+. However, after recent events, it’s now unambiguous. After delivering the biggest geopolitical win for NATO & Friends in decades, there’s little doubt Turkey is fully onboard with their agenda.

Turkey has emerged as the dominant power and kingmaker in Syria, extending NATO & Friends’ influence into new strategic territory in the heart of the Middle East.

Turkey’s ambitions likely extend well beyond Syria. Erdogan has made no secret of his intention to create a Neo-Ottoman Empire. He now has a golden opportunity to make this a reality with the help of NATO & Friends.

Turkey’s conquest of Syria is not without immense challenges. The country remains fractured and unstable.

Armed Kurdish forces, avowed foes of Turkey, control about a third of Syria.

Assad loyalists are concentrated in the coastal region and other parts of the country. They remain heavily armed and hostile to the new Syrian authorities.

There are ISIS remnants that haven’t submitted to the new government either.

Then there is the Israeli military, which has destroyed all of Syria’s previously formidable air defense systems. The Israeli Air Force now has free reign over the skies of Syria. Israeli tanks and soldiers have occupied new strategic parts of the country.

In short, the new Syrian authorities have a gigantic mess to deal with. They do not have a monopoly on the use of force within Syria’s borders, and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to achieve that anytime soon.

That’s why Syria could easily continue being a geopolitical black hole, sucking in blood and treasury from anyone who tries to stabilize a situation that cannot be stabilized.

Presuming Syria can be stabilized—which is a big if—who will pay for the hundreds of billions required for the country’s reconstruction after more than 14 years of war?

Nobody knows.

Turkey and, by extension, NATO & Friends were popping champagne over Assad’s ouster. But the celebration may end soon as they realize they have bit off more than they can chew.

Turkey, the US, and Israel will be responsible for . . .

[SNIP]