[People in the US should note that Russia would likely not even have the types of missiles used to strike Dnipro this morning had Trump not unilaterally pulled out of the Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) treaty between the US and Russia during his first term in office. One of his more stupid moves (unfortunately, there's plenty of them) . . . SC]

By Boyko Nikolov - November 21, 2024

President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin denied that an intercontinental ballistic missile [ICBM] was used in today’s attack on the city of Dnipro. The Russian president announced that the missile used in today’s attack was the 9M729 Oreshnik.

Meanwhile, an expert speaking to BBC Verify questioned Ukraine’s claim that Russia launched an ICBM in the center of Dnipro. Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested that the United States would have detected the launch of an ICBM by the Russian military.

“Typically, intercontinental ballistic missiles do not carry conventional warheads. If one had been launched from an operational silo, the United States would have raised alarms, fearing it was a nuclear attack,” said Cancian.

Based on footage of the strike circulating online, Cancian speculated that a missile with a shorter range, flying on a lower trajectory than an ICBM, might have been used. “The videos strongly suggest a ballistic missile due to the angle of impact,” Cancian said. “There’s nothing in the footage that necessitates the missile being an ICBM.”

Others pointed out that using an ICBM to attack Ukrainian targets would be an expensive move for Russia. “Russia launched a medium-range ballistic missile, not an ICBM, against Ukraine,” a U.S. official told Reuters, citing initial indications.

IRBMs (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) are designed to travel distances between 3000 and 5500 kilometers, whereas ICBMs can travel over 5500 kilometers. IRBMs are intended for attacks within a specific region or continent, such as targeting locations in neighboring countries or regions, experts told Wazn.

“IRBMs have a shorter range than ICBMs, making them suitable for strategic strikes in closer geographic areas. They are typically used to target military sites or critical infrastructure in neighboring nations.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the incident, calling it a strike by a “Russian intercontinental ballistic missile.” “Russia is using Ukraine as a testing ground,” he said. He did not specify the name of the missile but mentioned that necessary expertise was underway to determine its characteristics.

However, the 9M729 Oreshnik is not an ICBM but a conventional missile. In October 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces [INF] Treaty. However, Washington continued to work in this direction: after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in December, the alliance sided with the U.S. and also accused Moscow of violating the 1987 disarmament treaty that bans all ground-launched ballistic missiles with a range between 500 and 5500 kilometers.

At the same time, Washington issued an ultimatum to Moscow . . .

[SNIP]