Best case scenario for an Israeli air strike against Iran, it's still going to be not enough.

Assuming the vast majority of Israeli attack jets and multi-role will launch from Israel, each with 2 JASSM missiles on board, that would be something like 600 missiles.

Bombing runs are excluded in the first Israeli attack, because the losses will be significant, and the result poor at best.

Let's assume that the Russians and the Chinese are somehow blinded, and won't be able to see the launch of 300-350 Israeli jets...but Iran will, at some point, either detect them or they will know when those jets will be above Iraq, because they will have to fly VERY LOW...and will be SEEN and HEARD.

But, let's assume that even that will not happen.

HOWEVER, when the Israeli jets will launch their missiles, Iran will detect them...and will launch a crap ton of missiles toward Israel.

The fact that the Israeli jets will be as light as possible (they need refueling and speed), it means that they will not have air-to-air missiles to shot down the Iranian missiles. They will be equipped with air-to-ground missile, for maximum impact.

600 Israeli missiles, heck, even 800 of them, is ALL Israeli jets launch, will, at best destroy a number of radars, a number of missile installations, but won't be able to destroy the majority, because Iran have hundreds of above ground missile launchers, and more then that UNDERGROUND.

Not only that Israel won't be able to stop the first Iranian response once they detect either the jets, either the missiles, or, as it WILL BE THE CASE, the Russians will detect the take-off from Israel and will instantly announce the Iranians, Israel won't be able to stop the NEXT Iranian attack, from whatever is left above ground, and everything they have underground.

The only option for Israel is to have the U.S. join the attack, with Tomahawk missiles and their jets, along British and French jets.

In this case, we talk about 400-ish Israeli jets, 200-250 U.S. jets and a couple dozen British and French. Roughly 700 jets, which means 1,400 air-to-ground missiles. There will also be several hundreds of Tomahawks, likely around 200, maybe 300.

If all those missiles will target exclusively missile launchers and radars, Iran will lose almost every launcher they have and almost all radars. But, they won't lose their underground launchers.

Even in this case, Iran will launch everything they have above ground, long before they will be hit, and many of those missiles will hit American bases, but most will lay waste in Israel, both on military and civilian targets.

And then the second wave of Iranian missiles, from underground, will start, and those missiles are HEAVY BALLISTIC ones, and they will launch before the Israeli/Western jets can go back and refit with air-to-air missiles.

And this is the "best" case scenario for Israel and the U.S.

Anything else will be A LOT WORSE, because the next "anything else" means no U.S. involvement, means a lot less missiles to hit Iran, and it also means a lot more missile to be launched toward Israel, ALL of them towards Israel...because the U.S., and nobody else will take part.

I expect the Israeli attack to do minimal damage to Iranian military, but a lot to Iranian oil and gas infrastructure, as well as governmental assets...but this means that Iran will launch against civilian targets in Israel...and the result will be horrific, because they only have to hit Tel-Aviv city and metro area, to simply f**k up Israel for good.

Will see what will happen, because it will happen soon.

Source:
https://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message4250712/pg628

#Breaking |

Israeli airstrikes tonight on the Dahiyeh suburb in southern Beirut reportedly targeted a significant underground weapons depot used by Hezbollah. The precision strikes are said to have completely destroyed the facility, triggering multiple secondary… pic.twitter.com/LGNjaMGFDb

— RAGE X (@ragereports) October 5, 2024