By David Stockman - September 20, 2024

When in the course of history’s twists and turns dire necessity becomes the mother of invention the hour is usually late. That’s the case with America’s septic fiscal derangement at the present time. There is simply not a snowball’s chance in the hot place that either the Trumpified GOP or the beltway blob-controlled Democrats will lift a finger to deflect America’s fiscal doomsday machine from its appointed rendezvous with disaster.

The latter stems from the UniParty’s bargain with the fiscal devil. It amounts to a coalition of convenience dedicated to the fierce perpetuation of the fiscal status quo at all corners of the budget.

For its part, the Trumpified GOP now says it will no longer be accused by the Dems of planning to throw granny out into the snow. Instead, its very own party platform now says no cuts from Medicare or Social Security. Not even a single thin dime is to be squeezed from what will be the staggering $36 trillion cost of these two programs over the next decade.

That’s right. Neither wing of the UniParty will now even utter the words entitlement reform or spending cuts in the same sentence with Social Security, which alone will cost $20 trillion over the next decade, or Medicare, which will clock in at $16 trillion.

The GOP also reiterates its long standing refrain of no tax increases in any way, shape or form. In fact, it calls for an extension of the expiring Trump tax cut (2025) at a deficit cost of $4.5 trillion over the next decade.

Such an extension, however, would bring down Federal revenues to an average of just 16.5% of GDP—the lowest level since the 1950s. And, no, it won’t even out in the wash of higher “growth” either because CBO’s Rosy Scenario already assumes loads of cumulative real growth owing to no recession or any other economic upset for the next 10-years. Effectively, CBO’s 2.0% real growth with no recession for a decade is the same thing as 3.0% growth interrupted by a normal cyclical downturn and recovery.

In any event, the resulting revenue number of $58 trillion over the 2025-2034 decade would actually give the idea of soaring red ink an altogether new definition. That’s because the baseline spending level during the same period according to CBO’s latest projections is just under $85 trillion or 24% of GDP. So as the Trumpified GOP would have it, Joe Biden’s parting public debt of $36 trillion would reach upwards of $65 trillion by the mid 2030s.

At the same time, the Beltway Blob on the Dem side of the aisle is dug in deeply on the Medicaid/ObamaCare complex and safety net programs like Food Stamps, SSI, unemployment insurance, family tax credits and child nutrition, which would cost about $13 trillion over the decade. And when push comes to shove in the cauldron of legislative battle, the GOP doesn’t have the cojones to dislodge the Dem defenses in this corner of the budget, either, despite rampant abuse and weak to non-existent work requirements for most of these programs.

Finally, we come to the Forever Wars, the Washington global hegemon, the military/industrial/intelligence/security assistance complex and the $15 trillion of baseline spending over the next decade for defense, international relations and veterans. As it happens, the neocons, war-hawks, the internationalist busy-bodies and the beltway racketeers which infest both parties have locked up this bulging corner of the budget tighter than a drum.

In fact, there is so much loose change seeping through the budgetary cracks of this $15 trillion Warfare State bonanza that the defense think tanks, international NGO’s and multitudinous military contractor lobbying arms are in high clover. The massively swollen national security budget thus funds its own lobbying and self-justification force—a self-licking ice cream cone, as it were.

Therefore, and to summarize: From a slate of $85 trillion of total baseline spending over the next decade we have the following UniParty “No Go”” zones . . .

[SNIP]