By Jon Wolfenbarger

Investors are on the edge of their seats for any sign that Fed central planners will someday “pivot” to cutting interest rates, instead of raising them. They forget that recessions and major stock bear markets have occurred after the Fed started cutting rates and the yield curve spread shifted from negative to positive.

The Fed has been very clear that they now have “that old-time religion” of former Fed chairman Paul Volker to fight the inflation they created when they increased the money supply by 40 percent after the covid panic in 2020. They now say they need to see inflation clearly slowing to their arbitrary 2 percent target (which cuts the value of the dollar in half every thirty-four years) before they will even consider cutting interest rates. They claim they learned the mistake of the 1970s that cutting rates too soon before the inflation battle is won likely prolongs the misery of high inflation.
The Trillion-Dollar Question

The trillion-dollar question is: when will inflation clearly slow toward 2 percent?

No one can say for sure, particularly Fed bureaucrats who have proven their inability to predict anything. But a recently published paper by investment research firm Research Affiliates attempts to answer this question by looking at prior historical periods of high inflation. This paper, titled “History Lessons: How ‘Transitory’ Is Inflation?” Analyzed all cases where inflation rose above 4 percent in fourteen developed countries from January 1970 through September 2022.
History Lessons for the Fed and Investors

During this period, inflation rose above 4 percent in these fourteen countries. In six of those instances, inflation proceeded to rise over 20 percent fifty-two times. More than 60 percent of the time, inflation did not exceed 6 percent. But if inflation rose over 8 percent, as happened in the US and most of Europe this year, inflation rose to 10 percent or more over 70 percent of the time.

If inflation rises above 6 percent, it takes a median of ten years to fall back to 2 percent. As shown in the chart below, with inflation of 8 percent to 20 percent, it takes a median of nine to twelve years for inflation to fall below 3 percent. But, as the authors caution: “This lengthy period may actually be understated because of the handful of cases missing from our dataset in which inflation has failed to return to 3 percent, to this day.”

So much more here:

https://mises.org/wire/history-shows-high-inflation-can-last-over-ten-years