4/16/22
The Ukrainian resistance is rightly "praised" internationally, but behind the "hymns" lurk other emerging dangers, as Farid Zakaria notes in an article in the Washington Post .

This is because the Russian attack on Kyiv and the surrounding area may have failed, but Moscow's strategy in southern and eastern Ukraine could very well have succeeded, as the American journalist and author explains.

And if that strategy succeeds, then "Russia will have turned Ukraine into an economically paralyzed state with no access to the sea, threatened by Russian military forces from three different directions, thus remaining vulnerable to a new invasion by Moscow." ».

In this context, however, "much greater military assistance from the West will be needed to ensure that such a catastrophic scenario does not become a reality."

Zakaria emphasizes, citing a report by Turkish analyst Jan Kasapoglu, of the American Hudson Institute, that there are not one, but two wars now taking place in Ukraine: one in the north and the other in the south, but with the footnote that in the south the Russian military successes are much greater.

Russia was able to move forces and supplies from its bases in Crimea and occupy the cities of Melitopolis and Kherson. At the same time, Mariupol is now surrounded and occupied by Russian troops and the Ukrainian forces trapped there can not be refueled.

At the same time, the access of Ukrainian forces to the Sea of ​​Azov has been blocked, with the Russians having managed to secure a corridor from the Crimea to Donbass and at the same time trying to move west towards Odessa.

"Odessa is the prize, as the main port through which Ukraine trades with the world," Zakaria notes in his article. "Odessa is the most important city for the Ukrainian economy, a city full of symbolism. If Odessa fell, Ukraine would become virtually enclosed and the Black Sea would become virtually a Russian lake - something that would almost certainly tempt Moscow to extend its military power to Moldova, which has its own territory with Russophones (Transnistria) ", warns.

In such a case, "Russian President Vladimir Putin could present the result as a great victory ," which "liberates Russian-speakers, secures control of critical cities and ports, and turns Ukraine into an unsustainable, vassal state."

"This should not happen," Zakaria said, noting that Ukrainians are fighting hard to prevent it.

In eastern Ukraine, the Russians are trying to advance from Kherson through the town of Mykolaiv, but are prevented from doing so by the bravery of the townspeople, who reportedly blew up the bridge connecting the town with Odessa and blocked the railway lines.

This week, Ukrainian forces claimed to have been able to deploy the never-used Neptune missiles and sink the Russian Moskva missile - something that the US Pentagon now confirms.

Nevertheless, it is important to remember that, before the invasion, Russia had a 10-on-1 advantage in defense spending over Ukraine - and Putin seems determined to continue, regardless of cost.

What can the United States and the West do?
Much more than they already do. Ukraine needs more weapons, especially those that give it enormous, asymmetric combat power. "Lt. General e.a. "Mark Hertling, who has insightfully diagnosed Russia's weaknesses and Ukraine's strengths, explained to me," Zakaria writes, "that Ukraine needs more equipment, which will allow it to quickly maneuver around Russia's rigid forces." ». This means helicopters, armed Humvees, multi-launcher missile systems and unmanned aircraft of all kinds.

Turkish drones have proven to be a surprisingly effective weapon in this conflict. Hertling urges Ukraine to provide more of these, as well as US kamikaze drones and surveillance drones for data collection.

"NATO embargo on the Black Sea"
Farid Zakaria, however, argues something else: that NATO "should impose an embargo around these waters (of the Black Sea), preventing Russian forces from entering by carrying out attacks on Ukrainian cities or supply operations."

The Russian navy, which is concentrated in the Black Sea, remains a major threat to Odessa, threatening to either besiege it or make an amphibious landing behind Ukrainian lines. Despite the supposed success of the Neptune missiles, Ukraine has no chance of stopping the Russian navy.

"NATO should consider doing something similar to what it did during the Balkan wars of the 1990s," he said - without referring, of course, to NATO bombings in Yugoslavia, which killed thousands of civilians. .

Zakaria argues that NATO "should impose an embargo on these waters, preventing Russian troops from entering to attack Ukrainian cities or replenishing their own forces."

" NATO ships would operate from international waters, issuing a 'warning to seafarers' on any approaching ship, that NATO forces would be active in the area, warning them not to enter," he said.

Retired Greek-American Admiral James Stavridis, a former NATO commander-in-chief, supports the Biden administration's actions, Zakaria said, "but urges a more aggressive response from the West on all fronts. "Give Ukraine fighter jets and air defense systems," she wrote on Twitter.

The United States has provided about $ 16 billion in aid to Ukraine since the invasion. Meanwhile, the world is expected to pay $ 320 billion to Russia this year for its energy. Economic sanctions will not force Putin to end the war as long as there is a gap. The only pressure that will force Russia to sit at the negotiating table is a military defeat - in the south.

source:
https://warnews247.gr/diethneis-analytes-ean-o-poutin-parei-tin-odisso-tha-ftasei-sti-moldavia-ti-prepei-na-kanei-i-dysi/