By Aden Tate

Break out your 2022 apocalypse bingo cards. Now, we can check off the slot for “highly pathogenic avian influenza” (HPAI, for short). We haven’t even finished a quarter of this year, and we’ve already checked off “potential WW3,” “high gas prices,” “potential nuclear war,” “incoming hyperinflation,” and “globe dropping the dollar as a reserve currency.”

We may as well add yet another strike against the American food supply chain, right?
What’s making these birds sick?

As of right now, at least twelve different states within the US have reported outbreaks of H5N1. Virtually the entire Eastern seaboard has reported cases, and much of the Midwest has as well. Anytime that a farm is found to have a single case, it’s being reported that the current policy is for every single bird on the farm to be culled. We’re currently seeing the exact same strain of H5N1 popping up all over the country right now.

No human cases have been reported in the US at this time, and bird-to-human transmission is said to be incredibly rare for this particular illness. If we look back to 1997, we do see a 50% death rate in human cases, but I personally am of the belief that this human transmission isn’t something to worry about. I believe a larger concern is what this epidemic is going to mean for the American food supply.

The US is currently the largest producer of chicken meat in the world. If we are no longer producing, we’re not going to get anywhere near as much chicken imported into the country as we would have had otherwise. What does it mean for the nations we exported much of that chicken meat to as well? They’re going to have to look elsewhere, or they’re going to have to go without.
How will bird flu affect meat and egg prices?

You’re going to see problems with supply, so you’re going to see an increase in prices. Scarcity drives demand. That’s just the way this works.

Within Iowa, this meant that approximately 920,000 birds were culled. Approximately 2.75 million birds were culled in Wisconsin. And those numbers are just for two states! It is currently estimated that at least 2.8 million chickens and turkeys have died within the US as a result of the HPAI within the past month.

The last major epidemic of a bird flu we had in the United States was back in 2015. It was during this time that egg prices rose to $3.00/dozen. If we adjust for inflation, this would be the equivalent of $3.61 in 2022 dollars (you know, because we have to make that disclaimer nowadays). If history is a guide, then you could easily expect to spend well over $3.61/dozen for your eggs in the near future, though I would argue you’ll see even higher prices.