posting on GLP:
Putin threatens pre-emptive nuclear strikes on NATO countries In Europe
‘You won’t even have time to blink your eye when you
execute Article 5 (collective defense of Nato members)
There we have it... Direct from the horse's mouth
So while our governments sit on their hands waiting...
There we have Putin openly threatening pre-emptive
strikes with nuclear weapons.
My comment: While that is possible, we still don't know what Putin will do. If Putin makes a big move he can only do it once, then he is toast, along with his country.
Usually leaders will make powerful enough moves, then allow the enemy to run, or call for a truce. Then the leader has the option to make another power move and take more ground. If he is too strong, the backlash could come back to haunt him for years. A big move by Putin could actually be all the incentive and selling points the west would need to go to war in earnest against Russia. It would then become a holy crusade to eradicate the so called new Hitler for years to come.
My guess is he will wait until he gets full permission and the green light from the Russian congress, the Duma, to protect the Donbass. He will then send in tanks and a measured incursion into that small area to defend them from the 125,000 Ukrainian troops on the southern and western sides of the Donbass. Then in short order it is possible Russia can annex that territory like they did with Crimea.
He may allow the Ukrainian troops to vacate the Donbass region and avoid conflict, and many of those troops are wanting no part of a war with Russia and would gladly go home. Many of the people in Ukraine would welcome in Russian troops, in at least the areas from the eastern front to the Dnieper river which is about one third of the nation.
Putin could also exercise the option to invade from the north and the east and take the capital, Kiev easily. But he may not need to. He can take the parts that they are already defending, in a measured way, and avoid conflicts. However, if the Ukrainians are stupid enough to strike back at Russia at any time, they will be shut down instantly. Also, if a demonstration of power is required, Putin may destroy ammo storage areas with missiles, that could be used against Russia later. This solves several problems and avoids bloodshed on the battlefield.
If there is a conflict or a limited incursion, it will not go as the west has hoped it would. The west wants a Nazi like blitzkrieg slaughter to give them the political justification to destroy Russia. Putin doesn't need to do that. All he wants to do is hold the line so Nato nuclear missiles won't be a threat to his nation.
However, during his measured moves, over several days in the very eastern areas, if the US and Nato make ANY aggressive military moves with missiles or bombings against Russian troops, that would send things to a higher level of battle. This would then give Putin the green light to hit any targets where those attacks came from, and he might very well attack Nato bases in a variety of locations - with hundreds of missiles and bombing runs. If they want a war, he will give them a war, but on his terms.
Keep in mind he has state of the art defense missiles and hypersonic missiles that can hit any target they are programmed to hit. Whatever the west tries to do, can for the most part be blocked by the Russian military. And every offensive move the Russians make, the west can't defend against. (The only way to change that dynamic is for the west to attack Russian military assets first and with total, all out force using stealth bombers. This robs Russia of being able to use their advanced armaments. However, Russian war planners know this. And that fact may be a great incentive for Russia to attack first and with overwhelming force - instead of waiting to be destroyed.)
Afterwards he will hold off, let the dust settle and allow saner heads to prevail over the situation. If that doesn't happen, then Putin will then start using tactical nukes all over Europe, including England, Poland, and Belgium to name a few. And he will then give the green light to take all of Ukraine which could be accomplished in mere hours at that point.
It is at that juncture of the war, that the west will consider a pre-emptive nuclear strike against all of Russia and any of their military bases and naval assets world wide.
Putin will know they are considering this. He will then have to decide if their belligerence and hatred is so deep seated and so pervasive - that he has no choice but to make a massive pre-emptive nuclear strike against the US, Europe and all the military bases, subs (that can be found) and battleships. It would be a huge undertaking, but it is doable and has already been gamed out for years, on both sides.
Naturally, he won't want to do it, but if he sees his nation going down anyway, his best chance to have a semblance of national survival will be to push the button first. And that is how World War 3 happens. George Eaton