National Security advisor Jake Sullivan made a speech at the Council of Foreign relations (CFR) recently. In the speech he lined out the Biden administration and NATO’s policy regarding Ukraine and Russia – which was as clear as mud.
It was nothing more than double speak and an exercise of saying nothing. He said they wanted to continue the status quo with China and Taiwan, and he expected to agree with some of Russia’s statements during meetings and to disagree with others. And that is the nature of diplomatic meetings. LOL

Biden is going through the motions of dialogue with Russia, but it is obvious they have no intention of agreeing to Russia’s redlines and giving them any assurances.

It is obvious that Putin is very concerned about the possibility of military conflict between Russia and the US. He may be wanting to make clear to Biden that they don’t want war, and are willing to negotiate, but at the same time he will make unambiguous statements that he needs solid assurances that NATO won’t set up bases and missile systems in the buffer states.

It is even possible that Putin would agree to disengage from the breakaway provinces if Ukraine does not join NATO and leaves Crimea alone. It is doubtful that Putin would relinquish control of Crimea. NATO, Ukraine and the US have a wide range of things they want to accomplish. But Russia is against all of them.

Russia could cut their losses in the Donbas area and facilitate an exodus of those Russian speaking Ukrainians and help them immigrate to Russia. But I don’t see Putin bending any further than that, and even going that far is highly doubtful for a variety of reasons. In addition to that, Putin may line out his next moves IF NATO continues their eastward march towards Russia.
Those moves would include setting up nuclear missiles in the western border areas of Russia, plus Belarus, Georgia, Kaliningrad and Crimea. And, he may also set up bases and/or missiles in Venezuela, Cuba and possibly a Central American country. These are drastic measures, but Putin believes that the US and NATOs moves are equally drastic and aggressive against Russia.

In my opinion, Putin and other Russian officials simply can’t grasp the idea that the western nations are actually threatening Russia with offensive military moves, which in their minds are clear red lines never to be crossed.

Russia is trying to remind the US of the ramifications of these new policies of the west. This reveals the fact that even Russia was lulled into a false feeling of security and "cognitive dissonance". To cling to the status quo and a “normalcy bias” can be a fatal mistake. IMO it is the failure to comprehend and understand the existence of conspiracies in high levels of societies that has led to this confusion.

But the truth is, the US and NATO knows exactly what they are doing, and they have done it on purpose. This has been a calculated risk that was already assessed by NATO, and then the green light was given to make these aggressive moves against Russia.

This is a new policy move by the west, but it shouldn’t have been a surprising move to Russia. Since the standoff started in Eastern Ukraine, Russia has tried to convey their own stance, thinking it would be sufficient. But the west knows exactly what Russia can and can’t do - and has no fear of it, and has no intention of backing off.

This is like a poker game and NATO has gone “all in”. Russia is sitting at the card table and simple can comprehend that NATO is serious about going “all in”. Well, believe it Putin. They went all in - and now you have to decide if you are going to call their bluff or fold your hand.
These phone calls Putin has made for dialog is an exercise in futility. NATO has already gone all in. The next move is up to Putin and the Russians.

Unfortunately, if Putin backs off in any way he will look like a weak leader to his people. If he goes forward with his threats it could lead to World War 3. This is a tough position to be in for the Russians and they have painted themselves into a corner.

The call today between Biden and Putin will allow Putin to present his case one more time, and get clarification from Biden on what they intend to do. Biden will obfuscate and be uncommitted to recognize Russia’s redlines. This will give Putin something to go on, even if Biden doesn’t say what he will do.

But the lack of agreement between the US and Russia, will give the signal to Putin that there is no room for diplomacy or talks to bear fruit, so his red lines would be respected. After the call, Putin and his generals will discuss the issue and then have a hard decision to make.

I have no idea what direction it will go, but I do find it difficult to believe that the Russians will fold on this issue. If Putin decides to soften his stance, he has to do so without losing face. He can withdraw his troops as a first step, which would avoid an immediate conflict and also buy time. After that, it is hard to tell what moves Ukraine will make. But I would assume they would attack Donbas and try to provoke a reaction from Russia.
If Russia tries to make moves to set up bases in the western hemisphere the US will repeat the Kennedy ultimatum. George Eaton