Germany and France fear a Ukrainian attack on Crimea
by Theofrastos Andreopoulos
(translated from Greek)
The conflict in Ukraine could cause a chain expansion on a number of fronts that will involve Russia, the EU, China and the US in a global conflict.
The EU is now openly afraid of a general outbreak in eastern Ukraine that could spark a war in Transnistria, a forced Russian invasion and down to Moldova, and the involvement of European forces against the Russians.
They then fear a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, new sanctions against China and Russia by the EU and the US, the transfer of medium-range nuclear missiles to Europe from the US targeting Russia, and the targeting of European cities by Russian nuclear missiles.
In short, the French and Germans consider very likely the possibility of a Third World War with opponents who may be stronger than the power they can commit together with the United States.
The leaders of Germany, France and Russia held a teleconference to discuss the situation in Belarus, Syria, Libya and Ukraine.
This latest teleconference has alarmed Kiev because they believe its fate will be decided without its presence.
In a sense, the "Normandy Four" have been replaced by the "Big Three" who will have to work together not only to solve European but also global issues.
And this is no exaggeration. The need for an informal tripartite convergence lies in the escalation of a pre-war situation around Donbass and Crimea.
The Internet is full of pictures of armored trains being sent from Ukraine and Russia to a possible war front.
The probability that Kiev, with an order from Washington, wants to repeat the "Karabakh" scenario against the DPR and LPR is very high.
Moscow fears Kiev moves to commit suicide in Crimea at Washington's urging
According to Russian sources, the Russian Foreign Ministry has another headache: There is a possibility that the Ukrainian armed forces will launch a provocation not only against the unrecognized democracies but also against the Russian Crimea.
We have repeatedly stressed the Kremlin's possible response, but why did Germany and France, which backed Ukraine in 2014 after the fall of Yanukovych, choose to talk to Russia?
"The answer is simple: Neither Berlin nor Paris want full involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
It is a new market for European products and a cheap trained workforce but a war with missiles and tanks is unnecessary and even more they do not want what will follow its completion.
Turkey took part in northern Syria by military force. Turkish troops arrived in Libya where Ankara formally established sea zones with the Tripoli government.
It seems that the Turks are ready to fight in the Eastern Mediterranean against Greece.
"Turkey has also helped Azerbaijan to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by force and is now turning to Central Asia."
"Erdogan's 'neo-Ottoman' policies have inspired Kiev to try to advance into the Donbas," they say in Moscow.
If Washington gives the "green light" then the Ukrainian armed forces will try to attack Crimea by launching a challenge on its borders.
And this can have far greater consequences that would not suit France and Germany.
Of course, the fact that the Russian Air Force of 2021 is much more powerful than the Russian Air Force of 2014, as it has all the state-of-the-art Su-35, Su-34, Su-30 and even the six newly received Mig-35 plus double Ka attack helicopters -52 and Mil Mi 28, raises reasonable questions as to how they chose in Kiev to prepare for an attack against a much superior opponent.
It is clear that there is a transatlantic "promotion", but to expect the immediate involvement of American forces outside the Russian borders where the Russian war machine is literally powerful (due to proximity) is utopian.
Why do Germany and France not want to get involved in Ukraine?
Russian analysts, however, believe that for certain reasons Germany and France do not want their involvement in Ukraine at all (but the US wants it and does everything to force them to get involved).
Firstly, in the event of a counterattack by Russian troops in the Ukrainian direction, the EU should impose a new package of sanctions on Moscow.
For Berlin in particular, it will mean the glorious end of Nord Stream 2, which will certainly not please Chancellor Merkel.
Economic cooperation between the EU and the Russian Federation will evaporate.
Second, Kiev may request military assistance from NATO and request the entry of Allied troops into its territory. The corresponding law for the application of such a permit has already been passed.
If German and French troops find themselves in Ukraine on a permanent basis, this will further worsen Berlin-Paris-Moscow relations.
Third, there is no doubt that the United States is using hostilities in eastern Ukraine as an excuse to deploy medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe to "counter Russian aggression."
In response, the Russian Ministry of Defense will be forced to target the respective countries with the Strategic Missile Forces.
No European wants that.
But all this is far from the possible negative consequences. An example of a forced solution to a problem can be contagious.
Romania and Moldova may be tempted to crush Transnistria by military means.
Japan has the potential to impose a naval blockade on the Kuril Islands for their return.
Beijing may eventually try to find a final solution to the "Taiwan issue", which will provoke European and US sanctions against it, complicating economic cooperation between France, China and Germany, but will also raise the issue of East Prussia, which was given to Poland after the 2nd FP.
A global conflict that will start with a Ukrainian "snowball"
It will be a "snowball" that will be launched from a mountain (Ukraine), which will lead to a real avalanche, which will crush everything in its path.
Note that Merkel, Macron and Putin also discussed Syria, Libya and Ukraine.
It is in their interest to prevent an uncontrollable chain reaction from starting which can very easily lead to the "War of All Wars", to the nightmarish FP3 (WW3) that we have only suspected of being in movies.