November 2, 2020
October Surprise: This Race Is Over
By Jerry Cave and Bill Thomas

We now know -- thanks to October -- who will win on November 3. The reason we know is found in early voting data.

October voting is no longer the exclusive domain of the Democratic Party. Both parties vote early and in ever-increasing numbers. Which makes the October vote an early “action report” on the election outcome that’s more reality based than the polls or the mainstream media.

Who you vote for is a secret. When, where, and how many voters cast their ballots is not. It’s data. In this case, data in its most meaningful form: the number of early votes by registered Democrats and the number of early votes by registered Republicans.

Convincing the other party’s voters to vote for your candidate is a long shot. Getting your voters to turn out for your candidate is how elections are won. It’s called GOTV, for Get Out The Vote.

GOTV plus voter enthusiasm invariably equals winning results at the polls.

In the final weeks of the campaign, enthusiasm for Donald Trump, demonstrated at multiple daily rallies, has been far beyond what it was four years ago. Will enthusiasm help produce another winning voter turnout for Trump?

Spoiler alert: Data generated by early voting says “yes.”

SNIP