[With what's going on in the Middle East right now, and the potential impact that may have on the price of oil (and the economy in general), this piece by Bill Holter from a week and a half ago seems to be pretty prophetic . . . SC]

By Bill Holter - October 8, 2023

I believe a crash of Biblical proportions is now imminent. When I say “crash”, I am speaking of stocks, bonds, and real estate, and thus it will lead to breakdown of society. Stocks averages have been held up by only a handful of stocks, very similar to the Nifty Fifty, 1987, the Dot-com bubble, and 2008-09. The averages themselves are now rolling over. Credit markets (bonds) have already been destroyed. Treasury-Bond Collapse Ranks Among the Worst Market Crashes in History (businessinsider.com)

The reality is that credit has already crashed and it is the ONLY market that really matters. The credit markets have been in the worst bear market bonds have ever experienced in all of history. The simple reason is that rates started upward from zero, “zero coupon bonds” are THE most volatile of all. Essentially, the entire world became a financial “zero coupon bond”, the resulting rate rise is absolute death for the entire system. Everything is levered and this time around the “debt saturation trap” includes nearly all central banks and sovereign treasuries. Central banks and sovereign treasuries still had room to expand credit in 2008-09, balance sheets today are blown out everywhere! If you know nothing about macro finance, please understand that credit (bonds) are the “foundation” to EVERYTHING in today’s world… the foundation has cracked! Everything “financial” is based on credit, and more importantly, the “real world” ( production, distribution etc.) is entirely based on credit. Any stoppage of credit anywhere in the world will begin to snowball and engulf ALL credit. Nothing, NOTHING that you now do in your everyday life will be the same, or maybe not even function at all when credit is no longer available. Credit is entirely based on confidence and this con game is over!

This is it folks, it is the end of our “credit based” society. You think crime is bad now? Think “everyone for themselves”, this is what is unfortunately coming. How do I know this? Because once credit is no longer advanced, NO ONE WILL BE PAID! Workers, vendors, suppliers, first responders …NO ONE! Mathematically, the amount of debt currently outstanding worldwide can never be repaid in current terms. It is either print to oblivion or outright default, either way the result is total financial collapse. The amount of “unrealized losses” systemwide is staggering. The Federal Reserve itself already has far more unrealized losses than the paltry $65billion of equity they used to claim. They are upside down but now hiding their balance sheet within the US Treasury since they were merged a couple of years ago. The Treasury itself is in a debt service death spiral as it must pay $1.5 trillion per year in interest going forward, up from $400billion just two or three years ago.

If you have been paying any attention at all, you know that almost everything you are being fed and told has been a lie. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but, your “lifestyle” has been a lie. We are told that one can change their gender if they wish? Financial and economic numbers used to be massaged, now they are outright fantasy. Climate change, racism, sexism, or whatever “isms” are put forth as fact and parroted by a captured media. Speech is severely censored and throttled if you don’t go along with the bullshit du jour. Elections are a complete farce. Government at all levels is pitted and pointed against citizens who for the most part just want to live their lives and be left alone. If you cannot see how abnormal your world has become, you are part of the problem.

The “lies” could never have passed as “truth” were it not for asset prices. Sky high stock, bond, and real estate prices masked what was really happening. As long as 401k balances and homestead prices were good, the masses were placated. Asset prices could never have come close to where they are, were it not for the easy money available at interest rates resembling “free”. If the Dow jones and housing were trading at 50 cents on the dollar, people would be pissed and then ask some tough questions with some very disturbing answers. These questions, and thus answers are just around the corner, spiking interest rates assure this!

Now that rates have spiked . . .

[SNIP]