By Tom Luongo - June 25, 2023

After this weekend’s whirlwind events in Russia we’re left with a lot more questions than answers about what happened with Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive rebellion against Moscow. I’m not here to answer any of those questions definitively because we’ll never really know.

That said, if what I think happened is anything close to the truth then this may be one of the greatest non-battlefield victories in modern history.

Let’s start with what we know. Prigozhin’s been running his mouth for months about lack of support from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) while his boys did all the heavy lifting in Bakhmut. His issues with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu are pretty well known. It’s also likely that there’s zero love loss between Prigozhin and General Valeri Gerasimov either.

Pissing contests between military commanders are not unheard of, after all.

You could easily make the argument that Wagner was brought in to clean up the mess made by Shoigu while Gerasimov undertook the bigger task to reorient the Russian military away from Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) towards an infantry-focused army more capable of taking and holding territory.

There is this looming war with NATO after all.

You could also easily make the argument that his successes left Prigozhin in a position to demand changes and for him to begin getting a big head.

Now, let’s bring in the external factor here, the enemy, NATO. But really it is the US/UK neoconservatives who have been the ones spending every waking hour punching Russia in the face with blatant escalatory moves to try and draw Russia and Putin offside.

Nordstream 2, the Kerch Strait Bridge bombing, the staged massacre at Bucha, the Kakhovka dam explosion, the attacks at Belgorod, the arms smuggling into Odessa under the auspice of the ‘Grain deal…” The list is nearly endless.

We heard reports of the Russian FSB thwarting a smuggling operation of Cesium-137 into Ukraine to simulate a nuclear weapons attack. Salt some of this stuff to taste, but in the world I’ve come to live in there is almost nothing, no dirty trick low enough, that in desperation the Brits and their American co-conspirators would not attempt.

In my worldview MI6 and the British Defense Ministry spend all day, everyday coming up with a new way to justify a wider conflict between NATO and Russia. The destruction and balkanization of Russia has, after all, been their raison d’etre for more than 300 years.

And, so far, that heuristic has been almost perfectly accurate in predicting where things would go next.

So, let’s cut through all the bullshit about this, shall we?

In no way was this an organic affair. It’s been building for months. But what’s been building?

A guy like Prigozhin could easily become massively disheartened with Russia’s leadership. Could it be to the point of him taking up arms against Putin? Well, that’s certainly what a lot of people wanted us to believe this weekend.

And I’m in no way suggesting that it isn’t possible or even probable. It is the most likely story.

Now factor in the stories floating around out there that Prigozhin was bribed with billions for Wagner to stage his insurrection. Would anyone be surprised by this if it were ever found out?

What? the CIA with suitcases of cash for some foreign malcontent with delusions of grandeur?

The deuce you say!!

Remember folks, since we live in a world of dis- if not mal-information we have to concoct stories that fit what few facts we have along with assessing such basic things as motive, means and opportunity.

NATO or Bust

Moreover, things are accelerating into the July 11-12th NATO Summit, where it is obvious the neocons are pushing for a statement or policy change that will be the ultimate punch in the mouth for Putin.

It will be one he cannot ignore because it will violate a major red line which he has laid out with stunning clarity.

Those are either Ukraine’s accession into the EU or NATO, one begets the other. For anyone thinking they are not one and the same thing, please turn in your geopolitics street cred card with the usher by the door.

But this is exactly what is being pushed by the most openly hostile members of NATO — namely UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. At the same time the Brits are nearly as mad at President Joe Biden as they are at Putin himself.

Why? Because Biden is the one that blocked UK Defense Minister (and IQ 60 mouth-breathing moron!) Ben Wallace from taking over for Jens Stoltenberg as NATO’s General Secretary. This was supposed to happen next month. It’s been put on hold and Stoltenberg has been urged by Biden to stay on for another year.

The Brits are pushing the world into war.

Wallace becoming NATO Chief would ensure this.

The only good news here is that France’s military, as much as likely the American’s, would rather be caught dead in a bathroom with an underaged hooker and pile of blow than have a Brit running this war.

It’s clear have promised everyone a piece of the pie after Russia is defeated in Ukraine. The Poles get back Lvov and parts of Belarus. Ukrainian Right Sector thugs get to wipe out Russians in the Donbass, Hungary gets Transcarphia (to Viktor Orban’s credit he doesn’t want it on these terms), Georgia gets the Caucuses…. etc.

They are being cheered on by serial Death Eaters Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, who this week penned a bipartisan resolution to widen the scope of NATO’s Article 5 to include not only Russia’s use of a tactical nuke but also any radiation that resulted from a nuclear accident.

Really, Lindsey, like we can’t see the setup here at it pertains to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant?

The bribes have been flying around everywhere. And Wallace as NATO chief would ensure that the final iteration of Britain’s ‘divide and rule’ strategy would work. But Biden said no.

And that’s the piece to this puzzle that tells me we’ve reached the crescendo of this nonsense.

That maybe, just maybe, the Pentagon and even Davos are getting off this train.

Putin – Lucky, Smart or Both?

With all of that in your back pocket now let’s look at this weekend’s events.

Here’s you quick and dirty list of hits:

- Prigozhin may or may not have been bribed by the CIA/MI6 with money and dreams of ruling the Caucuses. Long a dream of the Brits to deny Russia the oil and gas from that region.

- Oil, gas and coal Ukraine and Europe desperately need.

- He comes out with some ridiculous statement about Putin lying about the reasons for this war.

- He also implicates the Russian MoD in dispersing Wagner

- He begins the March to Moscow.

- There are unconfirmed reports of helicopters being shot down. Fighting, etc.

- The Neocons go into absolute overdrive that this is the end for Putin.

- Twitter becomes unreadable

- Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov comes out in full support of Putin

- So too, the Russian Ministry of Defense.

- There are no defectors from the Russian military

- There are small kerfluffles in St. Pete and Moscow

- Putin comes out and makes his speech denouncing Prigozhin as a ‘traitor.’ He is as angry as I’ve ever seen him.

- President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko negotiates with

- Prigozhin and within an hour the whole thing is over.

What started out as the ‘Fall of the Evil Russian Empire’ ended with “Suck what?” in a matter of hours . . .

[SNIP]