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My comment:
Putin has now spoken to the Russian people and called the coup an act of treason, a criminal act and a stab in the back, and that those responsible will suffer. So, the lines have been drawn between the two groups.
Putin exhausted the use of adjectives to denounce the Wagner group action, calling it anarchy, a mortal blow to the "hallowed" nation and an opportunistic act.
This has fractured the political stability of Russia. This may cause Ukraine and the west to double down on their attacks, thinking Russia is weaker at this time. It may also cause the Russians to fight even harder against Ukraine, and make an attempt of fighting to end the war sooner than originally planned. Because of this instability, the war may take a harsher more active direction - and that could lead to a nuclear confrontation.
The leader of the Wagner mercenary group is very gung-ho and is more motivated to make strong military actions against Ukraine than the Russian leadership has been. If Prighosyn was leading Russia, many say that he would be more prone to use nuclear weapons than Putin.
However, the leader Prighosyn,(sp?), has had partial disagreements on how and why the war was started against Ukraine. He feels that Russia shouldn't have gone into Ukraine because he didn't feel they were fully justified to do so.
He also felt that the military with the "corrupt and incompetent" leadership, had monetary motivations to carry on the war as they did.
He was also very upset that he lost so many men in the Bakhmut battle, and he blamed the leadership for not giving them enough ammunition and weapons to fight as they needed to be effective.
He had a long list of complaints about the two major generals of the Russian army, and he refused to sign a new military contract with them.
Then a few hours ago, one of his large military groups was hit by a Russian missile, wiping out 2,000 men. That was the last straw. The leader believed it was done on purpose to get rid of him and his men. And that is when he made the move to start the "march of justice".
As far as numbers are concerned the Wagner army group has around 25,000 to 30,000 troops. Russia has more than 10 times that amount. More have been recruited for Wagner since the coup was started. But, if there are continued hostilities, his army will need to be fed and housed, and that all takes money.
It is unknown how many disaffected troops and citizens in Russia will support the Wagner army. The leader said that 50% of the Russian troops will support him, but that was before Putin's speech. Now that the nation knows how strong Putin reacted against this coup, it is hard to tell how the balance of power will change any, if at all.
When this coup started, anti-Putin Russians in exile in the UK, and Ukraine supporters in Ukraine were posting articles and reports on this event as if it was Christmas for them. It was obvious that any conflict inside Russia was a good thing for their cause, and a sign of possible weakness to take advantage of in some way.
A lot of researchers were concerned that if Putin didn't deliver a decisive victory in Ukraine, that he would be replaced by hardliners. And whoever replaced him would take an even harder stance against the US and Ukraine.
But the majority of westerners were thinking that this coup would bring in a less militant government and one they could work with in the future as a new world order trading partner. But in my opinion that was wishful thinking.
Putin enjoys an 80% to 90% approval rating from the Russian people. The Russians are not interested in their country being westernized and gay lifestyles being promoted.
So far, looking at this coup attempt logically, would give it a slim chance of success. But there are many unknowns that cannot be factored in at this time, so all we can do is wait and see what happens next.
The main question is now, how will this affect the war with Ukraine and Nato?
Basically, the coup by Wagner forces in Russia doesn't change the war situation between Russia and Ukraine. It may affect it on a temporary basis, but at this time it is unknown how much it will affect the long term goals of the war.
On the short term both sides may ramp up their war activities and hit the other harder than ever before. It may create rash moves, and more bold, decisive actions.
It is like a boxing match, and if one boxer has hit the other hard enough to put him in a daze, the boxer will start a fury of blows hoping to finish him off.
On the other hand, Putin may feel he has something to prove to the west and he may hit back at Nato and Ukraine with heavier bombing campaigns to let the west know he is serious about winning the war.
The bottom line is, in situations like this both sides can overreact and cause a conflict to get out of hand. Nato may decide now is the time to go after Russia with Nato forces inside Ukraine. Russia may feel that they must use tactical nukes to scare off the west from taking the war to a higher level.
One thing is certain, we live in interesting times and anything could happen, at anytime. George Eaton
Heavy Fighting is reported to now be ongoing in the Voronezh Region between the Wagner PMC Group and Forces within the Russian Military and National Guard; the Russian Air Force is also continuing to Target these Wagner Positions with Guided-Bombs and Rockets. pic.twitter.com/hPYh8Lj7Ri
My view on the actions by Prigozhin and the Wagner Group in Russia:
This started as a power struggle between Prigozhin and Shoigu. In the beginning of the Special military operation Shoigu and his team made mistakes and Prigozhin became of strong critic of Shoigu.