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Real-Estate Bust 2.0: The Commercial Real-Estate Tsunami Has Arrived

Posted By: Basil
Date: Thursday, 9-Mar-2023 11:38:17
www.rumormill.news/218722

~Basil

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/03/no_author/real-estate-bust-2-0-the-commercial-real-estate-tsunami-has-arrived/
Real-Estate Bust 2.0: The Commercial Real-Estate Tsunami Has Arrived

By David Haggith

The Great Recession Blog

As we’ve all heard many times, history never repeats exactly. This time around, commercial real-estate is where all the naked swimmers are showing up, and the big reveal has arrived almost overnight like a tsunami, sucking all the water out of the bay. carrying more than a few swimmers out with it.

While home mortgage interest is rising, the rise is having little impact on most Americans because the number of mortgages affected by high rates is only 1%. Ninety-nine percent of US homeowners purchased their homes when rates were extremely low, and the great majority were smart enough to lock into fixed rates. That is a huge safety factor for the overall housing market this time around compared to the last earth-shattering real-estate bust. It means there are far fewer of those adjustable-rate mortgages that turned into time bombs that set off a housing crisis when rates started adjusting upward. ...

...Commercial real-estate, on the other hand, is an entirely different story. This is where we have just started seeing the first major signs of a real-estate bust, which began to emerge around the start of this month. The events I’ll lay out below reveal conditions are closing in on us quickly now to the time when something big, and perhaps unexpected in real-estate finance, breaks.

This time around, our Lehman moment is going to happen in commercial real estate, rather than in home real estate … at least, in the US. ......




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