Quote: "Fiona's quickly galvanized fury..."
Weather manipulation?
-NW

Maria's niece, Fiona
Caribbean Hurricane Network
Monday, September 19, 2022 14:11PM EDT
https://stormcarib.com/

Good afternoon,

Category 1 Hurricane Fiona is now back over water north of the Dominican Republic on her way to a close encounter with Grand Turk and the rest of the Turks and Caicos while also expected to menace the easternmost southern Bahamas. The T&C are very low lying so storm surge and coastal flooding could become problematic. This does not mean the misery is over yet for the DR nor Puerto Rico which took the brunt of Fiona's quickly galvanized fury, not so much wind wise although there was significant damage in some areas, but the scope of torrential rainfall, flooding and mudslides.

This scope rivaled and continues to exceed her Aunt Maria's rainfall totals almost 5 years ago to the day, even taking out a newly constructed bridge first taken by Maria's floodwaters, plus, like Maria, the whole island was out of power at one point. After today, hopefully after the tail flashes by with a final bang, cleanup can begin in earnest and power more quickly restored than with Maria.

Maria claimed over 3000 lives that were verified and many more unaccounted for. Fiona has been kinder in that area. For the DR, the flooding is not as extensive but homes and hotels have been damaged, the power grid is damaged and fluctuating, cell service spotty all while Fiona is still pounding away at the Samana Peninsula as she pulls away from the E and NE part of the country where tourist areas abound. Sadly another fatality has been reported.

After moving farther west than anticipated, putting the T&C too close for comfort to Fiona's wrath, Fiona is expected to ramp up to the season's first major (storm) upon approach to Bermuda as wind shear, while moderate, is expected to align up with the rotation and not against it while going over untapped very warm waters. A Cat 4 is possible but a high end Cat 3 is more like it. After a close fly by with the strongest side of the storm doing the interaction with Bermuda, or, even a direct hit at this point, Fiona will get picked up by a trough and speed on her way to a potentially damaging encounter with Newfoundland, East Labrador, Prince Edward Island and even east Quebec maybe. Too early to tell but she should still be a hurricane on approach to Canada.

While all eyes are on Fiona, we do have a few sleeper waves to mention, one which could impact Barbados, the southern Windwards, the Central Caribbean, the Yucatan and eventually emerge into the GOMEX. The year of the low rider continues. 97L, an exception to the low riders, is loitering around the central Atlantic and has a small window of opportunity to make a Gastonite of himself. That window will close quickly though and his remnants might affect the Azores down the road. Shipping and fish will most likely be his legacy.

One wave of interest is now on the western coast of Africa with good potential and low now but is expected to be drawn up north after splashdown, maybe get a quick spin up, then just as quickly die out as it moves towards the Iberian Peninsula.

The sneaky wave is now located close to 50W and 10N. The NHC just posted it as an area to watch although not an invest yet. The long term models are actually in modest agreement already that this might be a major player down the road through the east and central Caribbean. This does not bode well for Jamaica, The Yucatan, Cuba, the Caymans and eventually the Gulf of Mexico. Texas to Florida by the end of the month might be staring down a monster running amok in the gulf with nowhere to go but land. Again, this is a long term look at things but it is that time of year and there is a large reservoir of untapped hot water just waiting to fuel a willing, organized storm.

Lake Charles has been a storm magnet as of late while the Tampa shield has been a force. Something to be aware of in the coming weeks. Significant organization and strengthening is not expected until it reaches 70-75W where wind shear values will plummet. For now, the outflow from Fiona should limit any quick development as it heads towards Barbados and the lower Windwards.

- Dave