A post submitted by CGI member, MAXtheMAGAnificent.

****************
Snip

1. Turkey

Turkey is the main event.

Last year we reported that 70% of Americans weren’t having their typical Thanksgiving celebrations because of the pandemic. As a result, the nation’s 2,500 turkey farms struggled to adjust to buyers preferring smaller turkeys or even opting for turkey cuts instead of whole turkeys — demands that threatened the turkey supply chain.

In a twist of fate, turkey farmers have smaller turkeys available for Thanksgiving 2021, but many Americans are returning to in-person gatherings. That means it will be more difficult to find larger turkeys in your local grocery store this year.

Another issue is that this year, the turkey supply chain is facing labor shortage issues. Farmers are having difficulties finding workers who will de-feather and prepare the poultry. One farmer said he normally hires around 100 workers for dressing season but that this year he has only been able to hire seven so far.

Also, the cost of refrigerated transportation has increased 10%, according to Tyson. Turkeys themselves so far are up an increase of 6%.

2. Canned Cranberry Sauce

Cranberries are a crop indigenous to North America, and Native Americans used cranberries for both food and medicine before the Pilgrims came over. Commercial cranberry sauce proved difficult, but, in 1912, Marcus L. Urann, cofounder of Ocean Spray, began canning and juicing the berries, which allowed for a longer shelf life. Farmers also developed a wet harvesting method that reduced the number of workers needed for harvesting cranberries. Today, 20% of cranberries are eaten the week of Thanksgiving.

Back in February, Thomas CEO and President Tony Uphoff reported that aluminum can sourcing had been up 83% year-over-year. While aluminum has been readily available, there haven’t been enough can manufacturers to meet the demand. If there aren’t enough cans to go around, then no matter the harvest, there won’t be ready access to cranberry sauce.

The New York Times is reporting that the cost of canned cranberry sauce will cost more this Thanksgiving.

3. Stuffing

The Kentucky Retail Federation’s Steve McClain warned that stuffing mix may be in short supply this year. A school food and nutrition manager said she had begun stockpiling stuffing mix last month because she knew supply chain issues could impact children’s Thanksgivings. Other consumers are stockpiling as well.

In addition to stockpiling resulting in fewer boxes of stuffing on grocery store shelves, many of the key ingredients that go into the stuffing are scarce and therefore expensive right now.

Bread cubes for the stuffing are more expensive as a drought impacted this year’s wheat crop. Eggs, which are often used as a binder, have increased in price by 5.7%. The cost of feeding dairy cows has become so expensive that those in the industry have decreased their herd by a number not seen for more than a decade, and, with fewer cows, there is less butter in the market. Many recipes also call for chicken stock, and, as Uphoff reported earlier this year, there is a chicken shortage.

4. Potatoes

Whether you like baked potatoes, mashed potatoes, potatoes au gratin, or sweet potatoes, you’ll be disappointed to hear this news: there’s a global potato shortage.

Cold and wet weather damaged the potato crop in South Africa. Japan imports its potatoes, and their KFCs couldn’t get their hands on any for french fries in October. Ireland, famous for its potato famine, is dealing with a ban on seed potato imports, which will negatively impact the potato harvest going forward. In Russia, potato prices are 2.3 times higher than they were in September 2020.

In South Carolina, sweet potato farmers are having difficulties finding workers and are struggling to afford rising costs in labor.

5. Pie
Pumpkin Pie

Do you know which state harvests the most pumpkins? While pumpkins are grown across the country, Illinois produces the most. About 80% of Illinois’ pumpkin crop is turned into pie filling and has other processing uses. Unfortunately, a fungus struck Illinois pumpkin patches this year.

California, a major player in the pumpkin industry, has had one of its worst seasons. In addition to the drought that impacted numerous crops, it has also faced a virus. One farmer even reported a new migratory bird in California that ate up the pumpkins.

As a result, there are fewer varieties of pumpkins available, and prices have gone up.
Apple Pie

Likewise, there are various factors working against the apple harvest this year. Freezing temperatures this past spring led to apple shortages in Georgia and the Carolinas, while a drought reduced the apple crop in Bayfield, Wisconsin, by 40%.

It’s not just pie filling that’s in short supply, though. In the week ending October 3, 18% of bakery items were not stocked.

6. Beverages
Soda and Seltzer

Due to power cuts at factories in China and fuel shortages in Europe, there’s been a fertilizer shortage. This has led to a shortage of carbon dioxide, which creates the bubbles in drinks. Because carbon dioxide plays a critical role in keeping packaged foods fresh, the supply available may go more toward food sources rather than carbonated beverages.

Pair this with the aluminum can shortage and the trucking shortage, and it means there may be less variety available in carbonated beverages, as manufacturers try to optimize by playing it safe with the classics.

That said, we reported last month that Coca-Cola recently completed its $23 million bottling plant expansion in Virginia, which is expected to increase production efficiency. For a deep dive into how the company is using automation as well as tracking and analytics to bolster its supply chain, read our article “Behind the Scenes of the Coca Cola Supply Chain.”
Wine and Spirits

The pandemic has been driving people to drink: 60% of American adults have increased their alcohol consumption, according to a recent study. This means there is greater demand at a time when there is a stock shortage.

With the shortage of shipping containers and with containers stuck offshore, due to port congestion, imported alcohol is less available. However, even domestic alcohol is being impacted because the glass bottles wine comes in are often manufactured in China. Shipping expenses have tripled, and shipping time from China increased in September from 40 days to 73 days.

There has been an ongoing staffing shortage during the pandemic, as many workers are choosing their health over working retail jobs, which includes working at liquor stores. Now, with the National Association of Wholesaler-Distribution requesting workers to get vaccinated, some workers are saying they will quit their jobs.

63% of Americans drink wine at Thanksgiving so make sure you’re prepared.
Beer

The solution of what to drink around the Thanksgiving table isn’t quite as easy as switching from imported wine to domestic beer, though.

By July of this year, Vice President of Marketing for Thomas Shawn Fitzgerald reported that sourcing for aluminum cans was up 116% year-over-year. He indicated that on top of there not being enough can manufacturers, the price of barley, an ingredient necessary for brewing beer, was up 3.5% over the previous year.

Sourcing for shipping services is up 80% year-over-year. Last quarter, it was up 185% over Q2. “One craft brewer said that the costs of moving a truckload of beer had doubled for small brewers because of increased demand and a dearth of truck drivers,” said Fitzgerald. This means that beer is getting more expensive.

It also means there’s less variety. Uphoff said, “Molson Coors and other major labels have reportedly shifted production away from their smaller labels to prioritize their more popular brands in an effort to ensure their major products don’t run out of stock.”
Coffee

Don’t think your coffee is safe. A harsh drought in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee supplier, and a strange summer frost mean there is less coffee to go around.

And if you use coffee syrups, keep in mind that Uphoff reported this summer that Starbucks was experiencing shortages in flavored syrups. If the largest coffee chain in the U.S. can’t even keep it in stock, do you think your aunt can?

7. Bread, Rolls … and Your Thanksgiving Leftovers Sandwich

Friends’ Thanksgiving episodes are arguably some of their most famous, but who could forget the rage Ross flew into when someone ate his Thanksgiving leftovers sandwich? Ross Geller isn’t alone: 73% of adult Americans think leftovers are the best part of Thanksgiving.

But this year, bread is harder to come by and more expensive.

Last year, during the height of the pandemic, searches for all-purpose flour shot up 400%, while searches for yeast increased 1050%. The supply chain weathered the strain in 2020, but in 2021, 98% of America’s wheat-producing regions were in the area impacted by the aforementioned drought. Fortunately, manufacturers were prepared with carryover inventory; unfortunately, it’s driving up the costs.