Source:
https://fos-sa.org/2021/04/07/the-telegraph-third-wave-deaths-will-predominantly-be-driven-by-people-who-have-been-vaccinated/

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THE TELEGRAPH- Third wave deaths will predominantly be driven by people who have been vaccinated.
FOS-SAApril 7, 2021

[Telegraph article starts here:]

telegraph.co.uk

Why the models warning of a third UK Covid wave are flawed

Hopes that life may soon be back to normal were dashed by Boris Johnson this week when he indicated that restrictions would remain in place to prevent a deadly third coronavirus wave.

Predictably, the announcement relied on unduly pessimistic modelling, which suggested a full release from lockdown in June could trigger a new wave of hospital admissions every bit as bad as the January peak and result in up to 59,900 deaths.

It seems absurd that Britain should find itself facing a similar situation to the second wave after an extremely successful vaccination programme.

***SNIP**

The models of viral spread in the months to June are also based on immunity levels of 34 per cent – again far below what we currently have. We know that even by mid-March it was far higher.

Risk among the vaccinated

There is an extraordinary paragraph buried in the summary of modelling submitted to Sage by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) which discusses who will die in a third wave.

It says: “The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60 per cent and 70 per cent of the wave respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age groups.”

Yes, you did read that correctly. Third wave deaths will predominantly be driven by people who have been vaccinated.

***SNIP TO END***

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