But there’s one data point being used in all of the prevailing models, including Imperial, that no one is talking about.

When did the COVID curve begin?

And it’s an important point. How can we interpret the data we currently have if we don’t know where on the time axis we actually are?

When the Imperial College model relied on Chinese data about the origins of COVID-19 and presumed that COVID was seeded in the United States in early January, they were likely predicating their output on flawed input.

Because the first confirmed case of COVID in the United States was identified 20 January in Washington State, setting the seed date a week or two earlier must have seemed reasonable.

It is not.

https://www.morozkoforge.com/post/the-curve-is-already-flat