Caribbean Hurricane Network
- Updates from the Islands -
http://stormcarib.com

Friday, September 8, 2017 08:26AM PDT - Jose

A lot of people are freaking out about Hurricane Jose. It is now a Category 4 storm packing 150mph winds. However, it will not directly hit any of the islands as it looks right now. But it will get close to some. Recon data showed that the center of Jose was a bit more south than previously thought, therefore the storm gets a bit closer than expected. The overall track is still the same, just shifted a bit, so it is not trending west.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla, Sint Maarten/St. Martin, St. Barthelemy. As of now hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). It is not expected to strengthen much. Some specific island info (CPA = Closest Point of Approach in miles, TS-winds = change of tropical storm force winds (39+ mph), H-winds = chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph)):

Island CPA TS-winds H-winds
Antigua 62 m 81% 14%
Barbuda 39 m 95% 47%
St.Barts 60 m

St.Maarten 62 m 84% 27%
Anguilla 52 m
St.Kitts 87 m 60% 5%
St.Thomas 121 m 41% 4%

Irma was 185 mph when it hit the islands, the storm force of 185 mph winds is 6 times that of 75 mph winds. As I wrote yesterday, normally a storm like this would be fine for the islands, but with so much loose debris laying around and many houses with damaged (or no) roofs, it is not going to be fun.
-Gert