"Matthew to thread the needle only 50 miles wide between Haiti and Cuba" sure sounds like the path of this hurricane is being controlled remotely.

Sunday, October 2, 2016 19:26PM EDT - Calamitous Matthew
Caribbean Hurricane Network
http://stormcarib.com/

Good evening,

Hurricane Matthew I fear will be one for the ages. Currently on a very slow NW trek towards Jamaica and expected to turn to a northern track soon, Matthew is expected to remain a major hurricane as between Haiti and Cuba possibly avoiding direct interaction eyewall wise with the high mountainous terrain of both countries.

Jamaica, being on the western side of the storm if Matthew follows track guidance, will get a severe lashing, heavy rain squalls which have already started, TS to hurricane force winds and storm surge. Haiti, on the much stronger east right quadrants side, is in a terrible spot. Not only will they get the full brunt of the storm wind wise, the torrential tropical rains will be almost biblical in nature. The infrastructure, deforested landscape, and the amount of people who have little or nothing in addition to those still living in temporary shelters from the earthquake all form a recipe for an event of catastrophic proportions. Another ingredient in this disastrous mix is the heavy convection laden blob anomaly seemingly attached to Matthews right hip. This will do nothing but enhance the downpours and storminess in Haiti and the western side of the Dominican Republic if it remains throughout the next few days.

Once through the Windward Passage, again if the forecast track remains intact, the low lying islands of the Turks and Caicos are on deck for a Cat 3 Matthew. Again, on the eastern, right side quadrants of Matthew, they would see devastating effects. The Bahamas would see very similar effects if this course holds true as Matthew moves north, especially with very low wind shear forecast and energy rich waters.

So, Florida, you think you might appear to be out of the woods but hold on there. Your not. The margin of 3-5 day errors in track and intensity are quite large and the NHC is adamant that you know that. Savannah, Charleston, Wilmington, the OBX, your not out of the woods either. Actually you could be in the crosshairs. Basically if you live along the east coast pay attention and be prepared. This storm is not playing games. It's a very serious threat. We will have a better idea tomorrow night/Tuesday how the upper atmospheric conditions will influence Matthews track and intensity.

The coast of Africa is still spitting out some waves and we are still in the heart of season so all bear some attention.

Meanwhile, 98L, to the NE of the Lesser Antilles, has been beaten up by Matthews outflow and is doubtful to reach named status. If it was to intensify, it would help pull Matthew away from the east coast so a saving grace may be there. Don't count on it.

Dave