Writes: Ph.D. Goran Selanec
Records: Profimedia

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Goran Selanec, an expert with a doctorate at the University of Michigan, argues why the outcome of negotiations on the exit from the European Union is not as clear as how informed political commentators suppose

(Follows simple google translation)

Ph.D. Goran Selanec

After the historic decision on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union almost immediately after the publication of the official results initiated a discussion on how to Great Britain to withdraw from membership. The focus was, Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which regulates the issue of withdrawal. The aim of this in-depth analysis of the arguments to show that the outcome of negotiations on withdrawal is not even clear about how it assumes. Although there are a number of reasons why Britain will try to delay the startup process of withdrawal from the European Union, which is decorated not quite certain provisions of Article 50 of the Treaty of the EU, there is a significant number of ways that the institutions of the European Union and its member states allows the UK to effectively limit the room for maneuver that at the moment the account is faced with a ruthlessness result of the referendum.
Jump into the dark abyss of uncertainty

Reactions of shock and confusion of the vast majority of those who advocated the release of the Union, which are noted in the media lens extremely clear "full HD" resolution at dawn on Friday, when it became clear that Britain is relatively small majority voted margin out of the membership of the European Union , were evident. As if no one truly believed that such an outcome is really possible. How should they? The vast majority of rationally convincing arguments, primarily economic, clearly indicate that withdrawal from the EU-a "leap into the dark abyss of uncertainty." Just as the vast majority of the political, intellectual, cultural and even celebrity "elite for months has clearly expressed its support for the view" stronger there. "

The power of economic, educational, security argument was the extent to which side of the political camp has argued that the remaining political campaign for the release of the camp is already at a relatively early stage was successfully chased the two political-emotional argument - invoking populist former British global (essentially imperialist) slave wrapped in a criticism of the EU as a "bureaucratic superstate" that suffocates the glory and the question of the effects of the so-called. immigration of workers from other EU countries, primarily Eastern, the quality of life in Britain, which ultimately showed "lethal" for her to stay in the Union.

"During more than four decades of membership in the European Union tens of thousands of Union's legal regulations governing most of the daily life of the citizens of Great Britain became part of its legal system. It is about more than a hundred thousand densely printed pages of legal text whose legal validity of the United Kingdom should be as soon as possible to determine the precise to avoid legal chaos without precedent in the history of modern democracy "

That the consequences of leaving the EU are not as far-reaching political stability, security and defensive efficiency, economic prosperity, foreign influence, scientific development, energy sufficiency that Britain and the EU-a confusion that Friday morning was read in "full HD resolution" it would be fun given the almost British bitter irony of the fact that those who were so arrogant ready to play matches only now, when the fire ignited, they realized they did not know how to control it, or see each other burns because, as became clear this morning, did not believe that the matches get laid.
The decline of the economy in one day

Fire as a fire. When the burst began to relentlessly expand. Within five hours the pound has lost a tenth of its value, securities on the London Stock Exchange precipitously began to lose its cost and to the closing of the Stock Exchange guild was 180 billion pounds. Of these, 100 billion pounds of the value of pension funds and the like. Value of construction companies and their projects fell by 40 percent, while British banks by 30 percent. The credit agency Standard & Poor's announced drawdown of British credit rating from stable to the unstable while the same agency Moody's on Friday lowered to "negative".

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At the same time, one of the largest investment bank Morgan Stanley announced that it will start to move 2,000 jobs from the City of London, Frankfurt and Paris. The total effect of the above was the fall of the British economy from the fifth to sixth place globally in just one day. An even greater economic shock prevented sheer luck that the stock market closed on weekends. As the British economy is expected this week and in the near future hint reports continued to arrive and upon closing of the stock exchange. The media have already reported on Friday estimates that the value of property of citizens until the end of the year will be about 20 thousand pounds less.

Entrepreneurs have started to report that they began to arrive cancellations of agreed orders and delays initiated business negotiations with foreign partners, while from the public sector began to emerge about the letters that indicates the freezing of the project financing, especially those related to EU funds. Especially sad news of the poorest communities like Cornwall or Ebbw Valea whose financial survival depends on subsidies from EU funds, which are with the full support of local politicians voted for a firm date.
Possible early elections

The day after asking the Government guarantee that tens of millions of euros annually receive from the EU continue to be insured talks about leaving the membership or replaced by subsidies from the state budget. There is a hint of increases in energy prices, the prices of which were previously socially controlled. Given the fact that Britain much of their electricity imports from France and the Netherlands, and petroleum products from Norway, leaving the EU price controls will no longer be possible. Today's Monday and the future looks pretty bleak. Political earthquake was equally strong.

British Prime Minister, David Cameron, in an emotional speech, resigned immediately after the publication of the official results and announced that it will not initiate a process of disassociation with the European Union but will leave it to his successor. Cameron has not presented any transition plan. Although not necessary for the composition of the new government is very possible that by the end Britain held early elections after which the political scene look significantly different. Cameron is obviously aware of that and is held after the speech, regarding the negotiations on the way out, his associates allegedly said: "Why should I worked extensively bullshit for someone else, just so I gave them everything served on a plate."

"Someone else" is primarily a former mayor of London and Cameron's friend from college days Boris Johnson, who, despite the fact that the city is driven by a nearly immeasurable benefits from the European Union, "pragmatic" assessed the easiest way to taking over the Conservative Party and became the most ardent advocate and "poster-face" campaign to date. After the announcement of the results on Friday, Johnson was burglary rage citizens of London had to be kept by the police, and he was visibly shaken by the public address announced that he will not change anything in a hurry and that Britain is no less European and nothing less open to immigration and diversity.

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Corbyn at Pride

So much about immigration as a threat to the stability of the British. This statement did not sound any less cynical statements by the head of the Radical Party of the British for independence (UKIP) Nigel Farage who was already on Friday afternoon said that he personally never support one of the key promises of the campaign to date - that 280 million pounds that Britain paid annually in the Union's budget will be invested in the national health system. Nothing better than Cameron it was not a leader of the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn Labour who took over after a heavy defeat in the last parliamentary elections, announcing the return of classical politics of the left.

Corbyn is rigidly refused any cooperation with Cameron in order to promote the campaign to stay, a dominant position of the public is that I did not invest too much energy to motivate the party's base to firmly stand behind residue. As a result, a third of Labour voters, mainly those from working class parts of England that most of its remaining workers' rights to enjoy thanks to European Union legislation, it voted to stay which has greatly contributed to the final outcome. Corbyn, the day after the announcement of the results naively decided to join the London Pride, where faced with a barrage of sharp criticism of citizens, co-defendants in the outcome of the referendum, and de facto banished from the procession.

Already on Friday, a significant part of the Labour Ministers' governments out of the shadows "submitted a resignation within the party and the initiative for his resignation. The similar situation is not with British members of the institutions of the European Union. British member of the European Commission, Lord Hill, in charge of financial policy of the EU announced his resignation on Friday, stressing that "when something like this happens to a huge such as the decision on the British referendum, actions have consequences." Seismic effects are not limited solely to the two largest parties.

"After the announcement of the results on Friday, Johnson was burglary rage citizens of London had to be kept by the police, and he was visibly shaken by the public address announced that he will not change anything in a hurry and that Britain is no less European and nothing less open to immigration and diversity"

Britain will delay the release of

When following the publication of the results became clear that 62 per cent of Scots voted to stay in the Union Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish National Party leader and First Minister of the Scottish Government, said the circumstances have changed significantly and that a second referendum on independence very likely due to the Scotland to be seen as part of the European Union. A similar step was announced by the leader of Sinn Féin and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland, Martin McGuinness, pointing out to Britain from the EU meant the end of the basic tenets of the peace agreement in Northern Ireland in 1998 - freedom of movement between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

There is also the question of Gibraltar who voted to remain markedly due to the fact that Spain has made it clear that will insist on the joint administration of the peninsula if Britain decides to come from the EU. Faced with the above gap torch in society and economic and political instability it is understandable that almost all members of the political camp that advocated the release from the EU immediately on Friday insisted that the release will not be quick. The motive of this policy is clear. The assumption is twofold. First, what steps are gradual but long lapse of time that is reportedly more likely to be calm market volatility, and thus the economic consequences will be less violent.

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Secondly, given that it has become evident that there is a coherent transition plan, the passage of time allows proponents to exit 1) take the bodies of state power among themselves after the clear up who has the highest legitimacy and 2) subsequently develop a British politician bargaining for the release. This means that Britain will not rush to the final act of leaving the European Union, but it is unlikely that with him to delay as much as her political and economic fit. Existing EU's legal framework apparently gives it significant room for maneuver in order to achieve that objective.
Legal maze of Article 50th

The process exit from the membership is governed by the provisions of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. Pursuant to this provision, the British Government has the possibility in the context of the European Council to inform the other Member States to initiate the procedure for withdrawing from membership. With this act of starting negotiations on the disassociation of the moment of notification must be completed within two years. The deadline can be extended only if agreed by all member states agree. Agreement on leaving the membership must be adopted by a qualified majority of Member States in the Council and with the consent of the European Parliament.

If agreement is not concluded within the prescribed period after the expiry of a two-year basic (constitutional) contracts (Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU) shall cease to apply to the State which has initiated proceedings under Article 50 of the TEU, and with them overall acquis of the EU (all legal requirements, such as regulations and directives, official policy and judicial courts of the European Union). During more than four decades of membership in the European Union tens of thousands of Union's legal regulations governing most of the daily life of the citizens of Great Britain became part of its legal system.

"In the case that Britain really start to abuse the art. 50. or make decisions that would grossly violate the rights of citizens of the European Union or its obligations under it, the European Union is available art. 7 of the Treaty on European Union, which allows the suspension of contractual rights troubled member states, including the rights under the common European market "

It is about more than a hundred thousand densely printed pages of legal text whose legal validity of the United Kingdom should be as soon as possible to determine the precise to avoid legal chaos without precedent in the history of modern democracy. Given the fact that it seems that the British administration is not prepared for this task, it is clear that this will be one of the main reasons why Britain will try to delay the process out of the membership. While it is clear that the delays with the procedure referred to in Article 50 of the TEU currently the main determinant of the British negotiating strategy it is also clear that the European Union has at its disposal a whole series of legal moves which is able to thwart such a strategy if British policy so decides.

First of all, the British strategy of delay is based on the premise that in order to start the negotiation process under Article 50. The need for some sort of official notification formalized - eg a formal letter - addressed to the European Council by the British Government, and at the same time wording of the provision does not contain any deadline for referral. But just as there is no defined time limit, the text of Art. 50. no way requires no bilokakav formal notification forms. Moreover, the foreign ministers of the six member states that make up the so-called founder. the core of the European Union (Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Germany) clearly stressed over the weekend that "divorce" to be fast while European Parliament President Martin Schultz even set a deadline until tomorrow Tuesday.
"According to the UK should not be naughty"

Such statements indicate that the EU already has available a legal strategy to try to "force" the United Kingdom to initiate proceedings if necessary. British counter-argument position is available in international law in which there is an established practice that the statements of representatives of the competent state authority given to the public commit their countries. The British government has already publicly expressed their intention to exit from the membership. The European Union is not merely an international organization rather than a supranational political entity with its constitutional framework and independent legal system in which international law is not a primary source of law.

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Well, based on this example does not take much ingenuity to the legal provision of Art. 50. TEU interpret in a way that it is sufficient that at the next European Council meeting, to be held on Tuesday, Cameron with other colleagues engage in discussion on the results of the referendum and its consequences, which would de facto informed them of its intention to exit. Such "a non-formal" notice indicated it would start the negotiations on the way out, and thus the expiration of a period of two years.

Given the fact that Angela Merkel, Chancellor economically and politically influential Member States very soon after the declaration mentioned six Ministers of Foreign Affairs and President of the European Parliament, said that according to the UK should not now be "naughty" and that the startup procedure is not necessary Rush seems that the interpretation of art. 50. Based neformaliziranoj notification will not have sufficient political support to be activated as early as Tuesday. Moreover, the statement that went alongside the statement of Angela Merkel, European Council spokesman said that the notification referred to in Article. 50 shall be made "an unequivocal manner and with the express intention of activating Art. 50 ".
The problem of trade relations

But that does not mean that if Britain really goes through the delay, this interpretation will still be available. The longer the lapse of time the statements of British officials and their actions will leave less room for 'ambiguous' interpretation of their desire to depart, and their intentions will be increasingly "more explicit". This will especially be the case if, prior to the initiation of proceedings under Art. 50. UEUa British Parliament starts with the legislative changes that have been announced by representatives of the political camp to go, and they want to limit or revoke the current EU rules concerning free movement of workers, asylum, the effects of the judgment of the Court of the European Union, etc.

"Yes, the consequences of leaving the EU are not as far-reaching political stability that Britain and the EU, confusion which was read Friday morning would be fun given the almost British bitter irony of the fact that those who were so arrogant ready to play with matches is only now, when the fire ignited, they realized they did not know how to control it, or see each other burns because, as became clear this morning, did not believe that the matches get laid "

The European Union has at its disposal another powerful legal strategy. British position also rests on another problematic assumption. From the statements that came from the representatives of the political camp to exit the EU clearly shows confidence that in the course of negotiations under Art. 50. TEU negotiate a new, more favorable to Britain, trade relations between the European Union and Great Britain. However, the text of Art. 50. TEU does not constitute a firm foundation for this desire. Article 50 in its second paragraph states that in the framework of "negotiated and concluded with that country an agreement which defines the arrangements of its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union."

In other words, the art of negotiation. 50 will be tackled issues such as the use of the remaining budget funds, transitional position of British nationals in the EU and vice versa, the status of companies based on the one or the other during the membership. Agreement on trade relations can not be part of the negotiations referred to in Art. 50. TEU and will have to be agreed in separate negotiations in the framework of a more complex procedure and accepted by a unanimous decision of all Member States in the Council and ratified by all national parliaments. Representatives of the Union's institutions and the foreign ministers of member states have clearly stressed that any negotiations about trade relations with Britain as a place to "third country" which means that it will start only after the conclusion of the negotiations coming out of art. 50. TEU.
"Nuclear Option"

This is obviously an aspect that does not understand nor Croatian expert commentators considering that argue that according to some information we have from Brussels negotiations exit could take up to seven years. As without the unanimous consent of the Member State talks about leaving the art. 50. TEU can not be extended after the expiry of two years, information on the period of seven years relating to possible negotiations on trade relations. In short, what more Britain will delay the negotiations referred to in Art. 50 of the TEU to be her how the weather later and politically difficult to achieve any agreement on trade with the European Union, which without it may no longer be the largest global market, but it will be another right behind the United States.

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In addition to these legal options available to the European Union has a "nuclear option". In the event that Britain really start to abuse the art. 50. or make decisions that would grossly violate the rights of citizens of the European Union or its obligations under it, the European Union is available art. 7 of the Treaty on European Union, which allows for the suspension of contractual rights troubled member states, including the rights under the common European market, which would have been affected by the economic interests of British companies operating in the European Union. All three options clearly indicates that despite current belief among the supporters of withdrawal from the EU and the British maneuvering space quite cramped.
British constitutional uncertainty

With the pressure from the EU described by the United Kingdom are already faced with specific constitutional dilemmas in your yard that will push it as soon as possible to open negotiations on the withdrawal from membership within the art. 50. On Saturday, a day after it announced a second referendum on the independence of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon has publicly put forward the view that if the negotiations on leaving the European Union will need the consent of the Scottish Parliament and is very clearly pointed out that in order to protect Scottish interests Parliament is ready to veto the entry of Great Britain into negotiations under Art. 50. The existing constitutional practice has no clear position on the jurisdiction of the Scottish Parliament to influence the negotiations that led the British government in the framework of the European Union, which have far-reaching consequences for the position of Scotland.

Scottish Parliament, just like the Welsh and Northern Ireland were called. parliaments delegated his powers derive from the jurisdiction of their legal act delegating the British Parliament. However, as an act of delegation is not a mere act of good will but a reflection of the constitutional reality in which these government units exercise a certain degree of sovereignty no clear stance on whether the British Parliament delegated powers revoked easily, but also on what is the exact scope and extent of those powers. Consequently, the question of whether Britain to make such an important decision such as the withdrawal from the EU which would have far-reaching consequences for Scotland without the consent of the Scottish Parliament constitutes a legitimate constitutional issue.

Although representatives of the political camp which has achieved victory in the referendum may not be aware of it until the end of the past few days, described the constitutional uncertainty related to the question of the sovereignty of the Scottish Parliament will create significant pressure on the British government to start negotiations as soon as possible within the art. 50. Namely, once the state notification by the European Council of intent to withdraw from the Union negotiation process can not be canceled or interrupted. He is non-refundable. At the same time, as long Britain will delay activation of Art. 50. it will be exposed to opportunities that Scotland consolidate its position on the veto powers of its parliament being will certainly be able to count on support from Northern Ireland in which the Irish oriented political parties tend residue is likely to take a similar position.

"In a period of five hours, the pound has lost a tenth of its value, securities on the London Stock Exchange precipitously began to lose its cost and to the closing of the Stock Exchange guild was 180 billion pounds. Of these, 100 billion pounds of the value of pension funds and the like. Value of construction companies and their projects fell by 40 percent, while British banks by 30 percent "

Increasing number of petitions for a new referendum

Should the Scottish Parliament to obtain legal recognition of their competence this constitutional issue could be dealt with by the highest judicial authorities in the UK. Such a development would weaken the negotiating position of the British Government with regard to the fact that Article 50 states that the State will notify the European Council of its intention in accordance with their constitutional laws. In other words, no court judgment would be resolved this constitutional dilemma, the British government would not be able to start negotiations with since it is not clear if he had the constitutional authority it here. In the event that the procedure is necessary to run the approval of delegated parliaments probability of leaving the UK from the EU would be significantly reduced.

Indeed, the fact that supporters leaving at the end really might be able to remain "short sleeves" refers to the fact that since Friday when they published the results of a referendum over the weekend as part of a petition from the British Parliament asking to call a new referendum on leaving the EU Union collected more than two and a half million signatures. Continue whether the number of signatures to grow at the same rate, which is closely related to the ability of the British government to get control of the relentless flames of economic, political, social and legal consequences produced by a referendum on leaving, and political circumstances related to the question of survival "unity" of the kingdom of teaching create constitutional uncertainty of the final outcome of the negotiations on the way out as part of Article 50 of the TEU will be all the more uncertain.

Written by Goran Selanec, a legal expert in the areas of protection and promotion of human rights and the rights of the European Union. He earned his doctorate at the University of Michigan Law School in America. He was an employee of the Faculty of Law and a member of the Network of national legal experts on gender equality of the European Commission, and currently holds the post of Deputy Ombudsman for Gender Equality.

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IZAKOVIC