Texas Republicans are flocking to the polls, but the increased turnout doesn’t necessarily add up to a sure-fire win for home-state presidential hopeful Ted Cruz.
“There’s no way around it that [Donald] Trump’s presence in Texas has complicated things for Ted Cruz in a negative way,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
Early voting numbers for the state’s largest 15 counties, released by the secretary of state’s office, show nearly double the number of voters in some counties, compared to early turnout during the 2008 and 2012 presidential primaries. By the end of early voting on Friday, more than 658,000 Republicans had cast ballots in their party’s primary election.
That’s more than double the 303,000 who voted early in 2008, the most recent year in which the state had a competitive primary that was early in the voting.
About 448,000 Democrats submitted early ballots this year.
The state’s top voting officials expect those numbers to continue growing on Super Tuesday, as Texans cast their first votes in what has become a nasty presidential primary battle.
“We don’t make predictions about what turnout will be,” said Alicia Pierce, a spokeswoman for Secretary of State Carlos Cascos. But, she added, “there will be large number of voters coming out to vote.”
In other words, if you’re planning to vote between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. on Tuesday, scope out your polling place and get there early.
In other states, the primary election has resulted in long lines and late returns. If you’re planning to stay up for the results, a nap might be in order. And remember, the voting party isn’t over until El Pasoans cast their ballots, and they’re an hour behind on Mountain Standard Time.
Republican voter turnout has been on the uptick in recent years, so the fact more GOP voters are getting to the polls for this race, isn’t terribly surprising, Henson said.
But, if the trend produces an “extraordinarily high” turnout, it could spell trouble for Cruz, for whom a homestate win in absolutely crucial.
“One of the problems for Cruz is he’s still having to manage the residue of pre-Trump expectations in a post-Trump world,” Henson said.
In the earlier primary states, Trumpmania has driven increased turnout. As a result, he’s nailed down 82 of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the party’s nomination. Cruz is in a remote second with 17.
Texas has 155 delegates up for grabs - the most of any of the dozen or so states that go to the polls on Super Tuesday - and the junior senator is working hard to secure them.
They’re doled out proportionally (not winner take all), so there’s no expectation that Cruz will get the whole delegate kitty from Texas. The question is how many he can keep from Trump. And the more people who turn out to the polls, particularly first-time voters, the higher the chances more delegates flip to the billionaire of reality-TV fame who has thrown this race into disarray.
“It shouldn’t be surprising that Donald Trump has scrambled the race here just as he has elsewhere,” Henson said. “That doesn’t mean that Cruz is going to lose, but it’s kind of ridiculous to think the magnitude of Trump’s success does not eat into Cruz’s margins.”
It’s not only Cruz who’s worried about the Trump effect, said Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak. In races further down the ballot, many incumbents and their challengers are sweating what the anti-establishment bent of unfamiliar voters might mean on Election Day.
“It’s added a real variable and a level of uncertainty,” he said.
The new pool of voters also presents a challenge for the Texas GOP after the polls close, in figuring out how to keep those new voters coming back.
“They love the fact that they have huge growth and record turnout,” Mackowiak. “These are new voters we can hopefully keep.”
No matter the turnout, Mackowiak said he was certain Cruz will win Texas. A solid performance here won’t likely launch Cruz ahead of Trump, but it could help him battle Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for the first spot in Trump’s shadow.
“We’ll see,” Mackowiak said. “It’s going to be fascinating result.”
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2016/02/why-high-gop-voter-turnout-in-his-home-state-might-not-be-good-for-texan-ted-cruz.html/
: Report: Trump Supporters in Texas See Votes Switched to Rubio
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: http://www.infowars.com/report-trump-supporters-in-texas-see-votes-switched-to-rubio/
: ODD THEY WEREN'T SWITCHED TO CRUZ.
: I hope the Trump Ground Team has poll watchers at every voting
: location.
