There is less then a month left...

• The concept of “election night,” is no longer accurate and indeed is dangerous. We face a period
of contestation stretching from the first day a ballot is cast in mid-September until January
20. The winner may not, and we assess likely will not, be known on “election night” as officials
count mail-in ballots. This period of uncertainty provides opportunities for an unscrupulous candidate
to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the process and to set up an unprecedented assault on the
outcome. Campaigns, parties, the press and the public must be educated to adjust expectations
starting immediately.
• A determined campaign has opportunity to contest the election into January 2021. We anticipate
lawsuits, divergent media narratives, attempts to stop the counting of ballots, and protests

drawing people from both sides. President Trump, the incumbent, will very likely use the executive
branch to aid his campaign strategy, including through the Department of Justice. We assess
that there is a chance the president will attempt to convince legislatures and/or governors to take
actions – including illegal actions – to defy the popular vote. Federal laws provide little guidance
for how Congress should resolve irregularities when they convene in a Joint Session on January
6, 2021. Of particular concern is how the military would respond in the context of uncertain election
results. Here recent evidence offers some reassurance, but it is inconclusive.
• The administrative transition process itself may be highly disrupted. Participants in our exercises
of all backgrounds and ideologies believed that Trump would prioritize personal gain and
self-protection over ensuring an orderly administrative handoff to his successor. Trump may use
pardons to thwart future criminal prosecution, arrange business deals with foreign governments
that benefit him financially, attempt to bribe and silence associates, declassify sensitive documents,
and attempt to divert federal funds to his own businesses.
These risks can be mitigated; the worst outcomes of the exercises are far from a certainty. The purpose of
this report is not to frighten, but to spur all stakeholders to action. Our legal rules and political norms
don’t work unless people are prepared to defend them and to speak out when others violate them. It is
2
incumbent upon elected officials, civil society leaders, and the press to challenge authoritarian actions in
the courts, in the media, and in the streets through peaceful protest. Specific recommendations include:
• Plan for a contested election. If there is a crisis, events will unfold quickly, and sleep-deprived
leaders will be asked to make consequential decisions quickly. Thinking through options now will
help to ensure better decisions. Approach this as a political battle, not just a legal battle. In the
event of electoral contestation, sustained political mobilization will likely be crucial for ensuring
transition integrity. Dedicated staff and resources need to be in place at least through the end of
January.
• Focus on readiness in the states, providing political support for a complete and accurate count.
Governors, Secretaries of State, Attorneys General and Legislatures can communicate and reinforce
laws and norms and be ready to confront irregularities. Election officials will need political
and public support to see the process through to completion.
• Address the two biggest threats head on: lies about “voter fraud” and escalating violence. Voting
fraud is virtually non-existent, but Trump lies about it to create a narrative designed to politically
mobilize his base and to create the basis for contesting the results should he lose. The potential
for violent conflict is high, particularly since Trump encourages his supporters to take up
arms.
• Anticipate a rocky administrative transition. Transition teams will likely need to do two things
simultaneously: defend against Trump’s reckless actions on his way out of office; and find creative
solutions to ensure landing teams are able to access the information and resources they need
to begin to prepare for governing.