Forget the Virus: Fear The Greater Depression
George Ure's Urban Survival
Mar 9, 2020
https://urbansurvival.com/forget-the-virus-fear-the-greater-depression/

[snip]

In our Aggregate markets work, we have been in a bear market now for several weeks, if you consider the all-time high on a daily basis came before this last bounce (last week):

How much worse will it get? Oh…not a long-term reader, eh?

While there will be a lot more in Wednesday’s (rather dark) look-ahead on the Peoplenomics side, let’s just offer than in Elliott wave theory what this looks like is a wave 1 down (from the top) a minor bounced (possibly a wave 2, but we don’t know that yet). So if that was 1 down and 2 up, then the leg we are entering now could be a 3 Down and these are typically 1.5, 1.6, 1.75, 2, 2.5…and sometimes more the size of the Wave 1 down.

At a minimum, therefore, you might be wondering how your portfolio will be if/when the Dow drops to around 21,181 in a couple of weeks.

If this really is THE BIG ONE, then around 21,000 on the Dow, we would get a month, maybe more, of rallies and fails, and then we’d go down for another 6-thought points. Which could hit us into the Dow 17,500 kind of range.

That’s Where the Danger Is

How so? Well, remember that market wave functions are NESTED.

In other words, we can pretty clearly see how the market could blow off another 5-thousand Dow points to the downside.

It would be nice if we bounced from there, what what if not?

What IF this whole pending move down to the 17,500 area on the Dow is – itself – an even LARGER Wave 1 Down? The kind that unravels 200 years of trading and globalism. Something bigger than the East India Co.-South Sea Bubble or Tulip Mania collapses?

There are a number of long-wave economic studies – where we go back and look at prices and values over time – and the argue that we have hung as much debt on the US dollar as will ever be possible. That we’re still at the leading edge of utter collapse of the currency, the Internet, the economy, globalism, and oh yeah…the country.

No, it’s not a pretty picture how it can all unravel from here. But the good news is that there’s a lesson in here: It may not come to pass.

At least, not yet.