Category 1 Hurricane Hector Headed Towards Hawaii
Dr. Jeff Masters · Weather Underground
August 2, 2018
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Above: Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Hector at 10:51 am EDT August 2, 2018. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com

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Intensity forecast for Hector
The SHIPS model predicts that Hector will be over warm waters of 27.5 – 28°C (81 - 82°F) on Thursday, slightly cooler waters of 26.5 - 27.5°C (80 - 81°F) on Friday and Saturday, then warmer waters again early next week. With wind shear expected to be a low to moderate 5 – 15 knots during the period, intensification into a Category 3 hurricane, as predicted by NHC, seems reasonable.

Track forecast for Hector

The 0Z Thursday run of the European model showed Hector passing about 300 miles south of the Big Island on Wednesday; the 0Z Thursday run of the UKMET model had Hector passing even farther to the south. However, recent runs of the GFS model have been trending more to the north, and the 6Z Thursday run of the model had Hector passing within 50 miles of the Big Island on Thursday, August 9. The models have large errors for 7-day forecasts, so we will just have to wait and see how the situation clarifies in the coming days. Over the past 3 years, the European model has been the top hurricane track model in the Eastern Pacific, followed by the GFS, then the UKMET.