Independence referendum delayed in Montenegro

Jonathan Steele
Thursday May 24, 2001
The Guardian

Montenegro has abandoned plans for an early referendum on whether to break away from Yugoslavia and will wait until it has completed a "dialogue" with Serbia, the Montenegrin president, Milo Djukanovic, said in London yesterday.

Although his aides said the delay for the referendum would be six to nine months, in a speech to the Royal Institute of International Affairs and a later press conference, he refused to commit to a timetable.

Mr Djukanovic called early elections in April this year to pave the way for a referendum in June or July. But, with 57% of the vote, his coalition and other pro-independence parties received less popular support than expected. Montenegro has since been under strong international pressure to negotiate a deal with Serbia, the dominant partner in the Yugoslav Federation.

"The election showed that Montenegrin society is highly polarised," he said yesterday.

In an oblique reference to western threats to cut aid if Montenegro seceded, he complained that "direct and indirect influence from outside" reduced his coalition's chances of getting a better result.

Even if a referendum were held, Montenegro's constitution can only be changed by a two-thirds majority in parliament, 9% more than Mr Djukanovic and his allies have.

He said this rule was not necessarily binding, however.

"A broad range of competent lawyers don't think this is required. They interpret the current provision as relating to the existing constitution under which Montenegro is part of Yugoslavia. If Montenegrins vote for independence, we would have a new situation," he said.

Mr Djukanovic insists that the tide of popular support in favour of independence, which has grown to 57% from 10% in 1991, is irreversible. A federation in which one side has 18 times as many people as the other is "untenable", he said.

For the past four years, in spite of "brutal pressure" from Slobodan Milosevic, Montenegro has maintained de facto independence, he said, adding that the international community is wrong to try to maintain the status quo.

"We understand they prefer a democratic Montenegro in a democratic Yugoslavia. They are afraid of a fragile Balkans. But Montenegro cannot be held hostage to the international community's bad experience in the Balkans," he said. "To think the status quo in relations between Montenegro and Serbia is a guarantee of stability is wrong."

However, Mr Djukanovic also has his ear to the cash register. Next month western governments are planning the first big donors' conference on Yugoslavia since Mr Milosevic was ousted from power. Montenegro will take part, and it cannot risk alienating European governments and the US.

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