PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGE BULLETINS
January 14 , 2001 by MW Mandeville

ITEM(S): Recent Quake Patterns, Strange XY Plots, Spring 2001

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1. As predicted last November, we are definitely getting some spikes of
earthquaking in the current X Wave rebound . A lot of earthquakes have
occurred during the past 48 hours after a few days of quiescence.
Considering just 4.5 and greater quakes, which tend to be the surface
quakes, they began with the New Moon syzygy in Vanuatu, escalating in
intensity, then moving up through Papua into the Philippines, which is a

boundary collision between the Asian and the Pacific plates. Then the
Alaskan plate edge began to shake, with a tremble rippling through
Vancouver Island followed shortly by a huge 7.6 quake in El Salvador
mirroring the huge 7.0 quake some 72 hours prior in Vanuatu. That is two
7.0 class quakes in this Perigee/Perihelion syzygy window, with some
smaller tremblers following yesterday in Southern California.

2. There are two interesting patterns here. One is the beginning of the
pattern in Vanuatu, which is about dead center of the Fiji-Papua Tectonic
Arc. The shaking moves up the Asian side of the Pacific Ring of Fire,
jumps to the Northern boundary in Alaska, and then the relative plate
movements are felt chaotically in North/Central America.

3. Secondly , the New and Full Moon syzygy windows pattern is not
operative for the current round of activity. Activity is substantially
above daily average and as great as the Full Moon syzygy window activity
was but we are 90 degrees off the cycle, smack betwixt. What is going on?
Check the cosmic windows table in Chapter 47 of Return of the Phoenix Book
Three The Prophecies. We are within the last day of the Lunar Perigee
Syzygy almost smack dab in the closest point of the perihelion. The Earth
- Moon - Sun system was just about as close together as they can get a
couple of days ago but of course now they are moving apart.. Observe that
the Sun pulled all the motions into a synchronicity which followed the New
Moon alignment when and where the Sun and Moon combined forces to mutually
leverage their influences on the motions of the Earth..

4. I think we will show for the month a good sized spike of seismic
activity for this rebound of the X Wave, as with previous rebound periods.
It will take another month before the quake databases are fully vetted and
complete for this period of time so we will have to wait a bit to see just
what the whole picture shows.

5. However, the X and Y Wave motion of Chandler's Wobble is still decaying
into a radical change. The rebound X plot (moving from negative up to the
zero line) already is looking like a sawtooth wave similar to the previous
gradual sawtooth. This means that the normal sinusoidal waveform is
nowhere in sight with the actual X position beginning to stay very close to
the average X position. Meanwhile the Y plot is looking more and more like
a straight line which is much too steep and headed for high numbers. The
plot should already be beginning to show a knee as it tapers off and
approaches its maximum distance from the average position, but the knee is
nowhere in sight. The computers optimistically predict a rounding of the
plot to make it look like previous waves but so far all predictions for the
past 12 months have been off by a substantial amount.

6. I believe that these plots (the two year daily plots by IERS which you
can click into from the Polar Motion Monitor page (link below) are
displaying the actual deterioration of Chandler's Wobble, with the energy
moving out of two dimensions of movement into just one dimension of
movement (from a circle to a long ellipse). Instead of wobbling in a
circle, the Earth is beginning to dip back and forth and this change is
still progressively developing from its starting in approximately December
1998.

7. This may be the beginning of a profound shift in the poles but we are
still too early in the pattern to know. For sure it is a profound change
in Chandler's Wobble. The primary question is, when will the pattern in
the X and Y plots betray a failure of the Earth to find a new equipoise? I
have no answer, I am not enough of a mathematician/astrophysicist to
advance theorems in this department. The most I can do is observe naively
and wait for the curves to go out of bounds, past plus or minus 0.6 (zero
point six) arcseconds. At those points anyone who thinks the issue of the
shifting pole is academic is crazy.

8. For a variety of factors too complicated to discuss at the moment,
****my hunch*** is that during the last week of March we may be able to see
enough to force our hands in hedging our bets. The signal will be in the Y
plot. If it shows no sign of curving into a knee by then, we will be in a
very strange situation with the historical patterns of Chandler's Wobble
for all intents and purposes clearly gone, with absolutely no ability to
predict what is going to happen next.

9. The key may reside in getting a good handle on the acceleration which
is shown in the Y plot. Serious astrophysical analysis must be in place by
then to crunch numbers and plot them. Then we will have to cold sweat out
the numbers week by week.

10.. It is beginning to seem that the first real beginnings of an obvious
shift in the crust may not surface until Summer of 2001. It may then slide
very slowly and reach the crescendo stage at some indeterminate point later
in the year. In Book Three of the Phoenix Trilogy, I painted a speculative
scenario with the rapid phase of the avalanche beginning around the Summer
Solstice.with a period of "tribulations" becoming apparent by April. At
the moment I would suppose that the schedule should slide three months to
see the beginning of the first slow waves in June. Naturally this all
involves vectors beyond our ability to model and it most certainly also
involves what the Sun is going to do with the spiraling alignments of the
inner planets during the next few months. Anything can happen and thus we
have no idea what I am talking about, not even me.

11. Damn I hate psychics. Stay tuned.

12. At 02:51 PM 1/14/01 -0800, you wrote:
>Hi Michael,
>
> Is it just me or do these geomagnetic storms often seem to show up
>shortly before a significant earthquake, especially when lunar influence is
>near peak? The 7.6 off the coast of Central America yesterday morning is
>getting closer to home. Yipes!
>
>Hangin' in here,
>Linda
>

Linda the answer is probably really yes and no. In this instance, I think
the storm is simply a storm which has arrived after the fact of the quakes.
Notice that perihelion was Jan 10 (Earth at closest to Sun, maximum
possible electronic attraction for storms, with Venus moving slowly into
alignment with the Earth and Sun. The Sun did not miss the opportunity to
eject a large stormfront which came in yesterday.