From: russbacher@aol.com
Date: Thu Jul 12, 2001 5:56 am
Subject: ISRAEL - Invasion Fever - Waiting for the "Big Bang"
Subj: Invasion Fever - Waiting for the "Big Bang"
Date: 7/11/2001 5:01:20 AM Pacific Daylight Time
From: MERL@MiddleEast.Org (MER)
Reply-to: MER@MiddleEast.Org
To: MERL@MiddleEast.Org (MER)

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The Arab American Orgs Controlled by the Arab Regimes - Time To Abandon
Them

INVASION FEVER

BULLDOZERS PREPARING THE WAY FOR THE "BIG BANG"

MID-EAST REALITIES © - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 7/11:

It's all part of the same game. The Israelis think they have the
Palestinians trapped. They publicly debate how to put them in their place
with bulldozers, expulsions, invasion, awaiting the "big bang". The
Palestinians don't know what to do, their own leadership having helped corner
them into this no win situation and now in charge of "policing" them and
"administrating" the neo-apartheid realities. The Intifada was their only
hope many thought; but now it has also potentially become their nemesis
threating to undo the gains they have made and the Statehood they were
supposed to have now long ago...or at least so claims the "Authority".

Then there are so many other factors that come into play in the modern
world when it comes to making war or peace these days: world ublic opinion,
condemnations at the United Nations, possible eruptions in the Arab and
Muslim worlds, potential use of weapons of mass destruction, maybe even a new
oil embargo, possibly something other than total American support for the
Israelis; and then of course the imponderables, the unknowns and accidents
that always take place once the guns start pounding with all their might,
especially in the Middle East it seems.

It's quite a complicated game now. Both Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat
are veterans like few others. And both know that after a lifetime dedicated
to this struggle to vanquish the other this may be their last time up to bat.

BIG PINES II - RUMORS ARE RIFE OF AN INVASION PLAN

By Akiva Eldar

[Ha'aretz - Tuesday, July 10, 2001]
Only the fading bumper stickers from the winter campaign are left as a
reminder
that Ariel Sharon promised peace. Even Shimon Peres isn't talking about a new
Sharon, "who doesn't want his career to end in smoke and flames." In private
conversations with friends, the eternal optimist has narrowed his vision to a
peace between Sharon and Yasser Arafat.

In the last few days, Peres's only excuse for his seat in the government is
the
holy mission to prevent war between the two. Peres warns that if he's out of
the
government, Sharon's invasion of the territories is a matter of weeks, if not
days.

For three months there have been rumors of a new version of Big Pines (the
1982
Lebanon invasion plan), written especially for the territories. The rumor
hovers
over the planet like a storm, with everyone talking about it but nobody
knowing
if and when it shows up.

In early May, the Foreign Report section of Janes - a particularly serious
journal - published details from what was purported to be Sharon's plan to
reoccupy some of the West Bank's towns and once and for all put an end to the
Palestinian Authority.

The report even mentioned a casualty estimate - 1,000 Palestinians and 100
Israelis. The last paragraph was the most interesting. It said that the U.S.,
Britain, and France have not only been informed of the plan's details but have
also given Sharon a green light to strike at Arafat if the Palestinians don't
cease the violence. Only the French, said the report, are opposed to any
escalation.

Someone told Arafat about the report. In one of his first conversations with
U.S. envoy William Burns (who's now in the region spending the weekend in
Beirut), Arafat asked the American what he knew about the plan.

Burns said that Sharon didn't divulge anything to the U.S. about conquering
the
territories. So, in any case, said the diplomat, the U.S. government did not
give any agreement, authorization or blessing to such a plan.

The clouds of war also flew with Sharon to Europe. In Paris they also
apparently
read the Janes report about European disagreements over a plan to get rid of
Arafat.

"It's not only France that believes Arafat is your peace partner," French
President Chirac and Prime Minister Jospin told Sharon. "Europe is united
that a
peace agreement will be reached with him, not against him and not without
him."
They were very polite about it, of course.

By the way, when Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz is asked about "the plan" he
shrugs
and says he never saw nor heard about any plan to reoccupy the territories.

But he phrases his answer so carefully that it's hard to understand if he is
also denying that his top desk drawer is holding a similar hit-and-run plan.

Members of the cabinet swear that they haven't ever been asked to approve a
plan
to reoccupy the territories - but they also say they won't be surprised if
they
hear on the radio that our troops are storming Arafat's headquarters.

Cop, judge and hangman

Along with the report from Paris about Sharon's visit, the Washington Post
reported on waves of criticism against the Bush Administration in the Arab
world. The newspaper, which described the Sharon visit to the U.S. capital as
much less successful than what most of the Israeli reported, said that the
American initiative against Saddam Hussein is being interpreted by many Arabs
not as a way to defend the Gulf but "as a way to oppress the only country that
has the power to threaten Israel."

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell apparently knows what would happen to the
sanctions he wants on Iraq on the day after Israel invades the territories.

In their discussions with the Europeans, the Americans sign on to every word
the
French told Sharon about the need to immediately start implementing the full
Mitchell Report. They also agree that Sharon can not be the policeman of the
cease-fire, its judge and its executioner. Would Sharon agree to Arafat's
being
the sole judge of whether Israel is living up to its commitments to freeze the
settlements - and the one who decides how much force to use against a
violation.

If it were up to Peres, he would invite the CIA to monitor the cease-fire and
go
immediately to the confidence-building measure stage, including economic aid
to
the Palestinians. Sharon, so far, refuses to hear a word about outside
monitors.
Around Peres they are saying that's where the cracks might grow in the
national
unity government - and they hope that as usual, Foreign Ministry Director
General Avi Gil will whisper a wonder formula into Sharon's ear that saves the
situation.

Smart sanctions - on Israel

There are signs that if it were up to Powell, he wouldn't mind using a smart
sanction or two to make clear to Sharon that he can't put the key to U.S.
interests in the region in the hands of any crazed Hamasnik. The instructions
from the Oval Office, as of now, are to avoid direct confrontations with
Sharon.
That's why Powell wasn't stubborn about the monitors for the cease-fire. It's
also why he makes do with State Department spokesman's statements against the
targeted assassinations.

The impending arrival of Dan Kretzer as the new ambassador in Tel Aviv - and a
member of the inner circle of participants in the diplomatic dance - could
help
Powell explain to his president the meaning of a war in the territories.
Kretzer
is coming here after a long term in Cairo. He knows a thing or two about the
anti-American mood that the Israeli occupation inspires in the Arab capitals.
Communications Minister Reuven Rivlin joked last week to outgoing U.S.
Ambassador Martin Indyk that he always goes to one of Indyk's farewell parties
to make sure Indyk is really going.

Kretzer will find a man after his own heart in the American consulate in
Jerusalem: Ron Shlicker, who also has served in many Arab capitals. Shlicker
recently appointed a special consul for urban affairs, Robert Waller. And one
of
Waller's first actions was to ask Meretz city councillor Meir Margalit, for an
update on Ehud Olmert's plans for demolishing building without licenses.

If you add Kretzer and Shlicker to Burns, an alumnus of the Amman embassy, the
result is a powerful lobby for deeper American involvement in the conflict.
Rivlin and company will soon be longing for the days of Indyk and Dennis Ross.

An hour in their bedroom

A.B. Yehoshua pointed to the Palestinian neighborhood across the way. He said
that he wanted to sneak in one night to one of the bedrooms to hear what the
neighbors have to say about us. Toward the end of Sunday's meeting of Israeli
and Palestinian intellectuals, someone stuck a Hebrew letter into Hanan
Ashrawi's hands. She whispered to Dr. Ron Pundak, who was sitting beside her,
that it was demolition orders from Jerusalem city hall for 25 Palestinian
homes.
Yesterday, not a stone remained of the bedroom the Israeli novelist wanted to
see. Maybe that's what Palestinian Culture Minister Yasser Abed Rabo meant
when
he said that he wanted his guest from Haifa to turn into a Palestinian from
Ramallah, for an hour.

The discussion in the hall in A-Ram in northeast Jerusalem sometimes felt like
group therapy for aging couples who are clinging to one another with the last
of
their strength. "We've been through worse," Abed Rabo said, trying to be
encouraging, though it was hard to tell if he was trying to convince the
guests
or himself. He recalled the first Intifada and Yitzhak Shamir.

Prof. Galia Golan, a Peace Now old-timer, remembered the romance of the first
meetings between Israelis and Palestinians in the 1980s, when the words
"Palestinian entity" stuck in the throat of Peace Now leaders. Ashrawi said
that
the current crisis and the effort to persuade the Israeli peace camp that
there's a partner for peace is a throwback to the 1970s. Yair Tzaban, the
grand
old man of Meretz, seemed emotional as he recalled burying the victims of the
Deir Yassin massacre and his struggle against the radical Jewish undergrounds
during the War of Independence. Prof. Yuli Tamir gushed about her honeymoon
with
Ashrawi only a year ago, when Barak and Arafat were so close to a deal on
formalizing relations between the two peoples at Camp David.

Like all of his Israeli colleagues who spoke, and like most of the Israeli
"peace camp,' Amos Oz sounded like a cuckolded husband. He was promised two
states for two peoples and got the Palestinian right of return to both sides
of
the Green Line. He knew exactly when his attitude to the Palestinians changed.
He was watching the return of Arafat to Gaza from Camp David on TV and heard
the
crowds chanting "welcome Salah a-Din." Now he has given up the dream of one
big
happy family with the Palestinians and is ready to make do with prosaic
neighborly relations. He said that sometimes peace and justice are opposites.
A
just peace for one side can be a death sentence for the other," he said.

It seems that the Palestinian intellectuals and politicians understand the way
back to broken Israeli hearts is through Oz, Yehoshua, Tamir, David Grossman
and
Nissim Kalderone. But it's also difficult for the acting president of Bir Zeit
University, Gabi Baramki, and his colleagues, to empathize with the sufferings
of the occupier.

Along with the desire to start anew with the Israeli left, they don't
understand
why all Israelis sound like Sharon. "You've all become security fanatics."
Albert Agezarian said he wouldn't be surprised if the Shin Bet would have
asked
to make sure it was safe to drink the lemonade served to the Israelis at the
gathering.

The event ended like a blind date. Everyone said it was important to meet and
to
meet again and promised to stay in touch. Sure, they'll call. But they aren't
so
sure anything can come of it.

A joint statement was supposed to come out today. It was worked out by Yossi
Beilin and Ron Pundak on the Israeli side and Ashrawi and Abed Rabbo, culture
minister in the Palestinian Authority. There's a call for a cease-fire, a
return
to sanity, rehabilitation of the dialogue, and implementation of Mitchell in
its
entirety.

The problem came up, as expected, around the right of return and the Jewish
indentity of Israel.

Beilin and Yuli Tamir were unable to convince Hanan Ashrawi that there's no
way
they'd be able to sell the Israeli public a statement that did not mention the
Jewish identity of the state of Israel alongside the Palestinian state.
Ashrawi,
who has been consulting lately with MK Azmi Bishara, pulled out the argument
of
the post-Zionists: She doesn't understand how liberal Israelis can ask the
Palestinians to recognize a theocracy.

Abed Rabbo spent a lot of time trying to persuade the Israelis that the claim
that the right of return made the peace talks fail was an Israeli
disinformation
ploy. As evidence, he said that Arafat at Camp David distinguished between the
overall refugee problem and the specific problems of the refugees in Lebanon
and
offered five ways for refugee rehabilitation - only one of which was return to
Israel.

But when the Israelis suggested a reference to the need for a solution to the
refugee problem in the joint statement, Abed Rabo said that in a written
document he had no choice but to make sure there was a mention of the right of
return.

WAITING FOR THE BIG BANG

By Moshe Arens

[Ha'aretz 10 July 2001]:
Everybody seems to be waiting for the big bang: the military onslaught
against Arafat's forces, from Jenin to Hebron and from Gaza to Rafah, that
will create chaos among the Palestinians and - in the same way the Big Bang
15,000,000,000 years ago blew our universe into existence - will bring forth
new forces among the Palestinians, creating new dimensions of time and space
in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza. Sharon's long-time supporters are convinced he
is gritting his teeth, waiting for an opportune moment. It did not come, as
some had expected, after Sharon's return from his meeting with President
Bush, and it did not come after his return from his meetings with Chancellor
Schroder and President Chirac. Will it take another catastrophe like the
Dolphinarium? Or will it come after patience has worn thin, after everything
that could have been said has been said at the Cabinet debates between
Shimon Peres (who continues to insist Arafat is our only hope) and the
hard-liners?

In the meantime the debate continues. Will we be better off with Arafat out
of the way, or is this irascible terrorist the best option on offer to
Israel? If he informs us that he intends to return to Tunis or set up shop
in Baghdad, are we going to beg him to stay? And in the meantime, the
government's policy of restraint and unilateral cease-fire continues while
Israelis are being killed on the roads, Psagot receives its nightly dose of
bullets and Gush Katif its daily ration of mortar shells, car bombs are left
to blow up in Israel's cities and suicide bombers are being prepared for
their murderous missions.

Instead of attempting to divine what alternate futures hold in store for us,
or arguing about whether Israel would be worse or better off if Arafat were
to leave the scene, our government should be concentrating on immediate
objectives - putting first things first. It is incumbent upon the government
to protect the lives of Israel's citizens and it should be taking all
possible measures to attain that objective. Even Shimon Peres should have no
difficulty explaining a policy whose specific objective is protecting
Israelis against murder - murder on the roads and murder in the streets of
our cities. This is not primarily a matter of targeting individual
Palestinians, but rather of extending protective cover to Israelis in danger
of attack, interdicting terrorists on their way to attack Israelis, and
taking initiatives in the field to abort acts of terror.

Too often we hear the lame excuse that the Israel Defense Forces cannot
protect motorists on thousands of kilometers of highways in Judea and
Samaria - that, in other words, we are destined to suffer daily murder on
the roads until such time as we have given Arafat what he wants. The fact of
the matter is that the stretches of highway on which Israeli motorists are
endangered are far fewer, and focused military action on these stretches can
produce results. The use of protective walls along the sides of roads is
generally a waste of time and money. Unfortunately, after almost 10 months
of killings on the roads, we are only now beginning to hear of plans to
direct the IDF to focus on the roads, and we have yet to see the results.

Dealing with the danger of suicide bombers is also presented as an almost
impossible task. The fact is that the entry of Palestinian suicide bombers
into our cities is at present relatively easy and often it has only been
luck that prevented additional catastrophes. The reason for this is that
over 100,000 Palestinians, from Judea, Samaria, Gaza, and Jordan, move
freely among us, many of them residing in Israeli cities and villages. Total
anarchy reigns concerning the entry - legal or illegal - of Palestinians
into Israel, their work and their residence here. In these circumstances it
is relatively easy for Palestinian terrorists to move about in Israel,
frequently receiving assistance from Palestinians who happen to be here.
Thus, suicide bombers make it to their intended targets with relative ease.
The terrorist who exploded himself at the Dolphinarium was driven there by a
Palestinian from Qalqilya who resides in Jaffa and was asked by his friends
in Qalqilya to drive the suicide-bomber from the Qalqilya check-point to Tel
Aviv. The time has come to put an end to this state of affairs. As long as
we are threatened by these kinds of outrages, the presence of over 100,000
Palestinians from Judea, Samaria, Gaza, and Jordan in our midst is a luxury
we can ill afford.

If the measures required to restore safety to Israel's citizens are taken,
the big bang may not even be necessary.

ISRAEL MOVES INTO GAZA REFUGEE CAMP

By IBRAHIM BARZAK

RAFAH REFUGEE CAMP, Gaza Strip (AP - July 10) - Moving tanks and bulldozers
into a Gaza refugee camp early Tuesday, Israel demolished Palestinian homes
it said served as cover for gunmen, triggering one of the fiercest gun
battles since a truce was declared a month ago.

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, meanwhile, laughed off persistent rumors
that Israel's government is planning to topple him if he does not stop
Palestinian attacks on Israelis. ``O mountain, you cannot be shaken by the
wind,'' a smiling Arafat told reporters in the West Bank town of Ramallah,
quoting an Arab proverb.

The Rafah raid came a day after Israel demolished 14 Palestinian homes in a
refugee camp in Jerusalem on grounds they were built without permits.
Palestinians have said it is virtually impossible for them to obtain building
permits in Jerusalem.

For the second day in a row, U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher
criticized Israeli destruction of Palestinian houses on Tuesday, calling the
moves ``highly provocative.''

At a briefing in Washington, he said the United States is ``deeply
troubled,'' and ``urged an immediate halt to any further demolition of
Palestinian homes,'' according to a transcript released by the State
Department.

On Monday, Boucher had spoke against the tearing down of 14 houses in the
Shuafat refugee camp near Jerusalem.

The Israeli moves threatened to further undermine a cease-fire negotiated by
CIA director George Tenet. The truce went into effect June 13, but has been
shaken by repeated acts of violence and deaths on both sides.

As the armor-plated bulldozers rumbled into the camp, Palestinians opened
fire and threw grenades. Three Israeli soldiers were wounded, one seriously,
the military said. Five Palestinians were wounded by Israeli fire.

The destruction was so complete that it was impossible to count the number of
structures that once stood on the site in the Rafah camp along the Gaza-Egypt
border, opposite an Israeli army post. An area of about 500 square yards was
destroyed. Palestinian agencies gave varying numbers up to 24 houses and 11
shops, but there were several apartments and shops in each building,
confusing the picture further.

Piles of rubble lay on the ground, and residents picked through the remains,
looking for belongings, though the Israeli military said the structures were
uninhabited and used only by Palestinian gunmen to fire at the army post on
the Egyptian border.

An Israeli army spokesman, Lt. Col. Olivier Rafowicz, said 10 to 15 homes
were demolished.

Mohammed Abu Libdeh, an engineer, watched with his five children as
bulldozers destroyed his house. ``It is a barbaric action by them,'' he said.
``I spent all my savings to build this house and now I am homeless,'' he
said.

The Israeli military said the area is under Israeli security control, under
interim peace accords, because it is near the border. However, the
Palestinians said the operation was an incursion into their territory. The
army post on the border has come under daily gunfire and grenade attacks from
the camp. The Israelis said hundreds of grenades have been thrown at the
post, and they cleared away the structures to stop the attacks.

``It's a crime,'' said Arafat, talking to reporters. ``They have demolished
these houses while the residents were sleeping in them.'' He said he would
seek Arab and international involvement ``to stop these crimes.''

Arafat laughed off reports in the Israeli press that Cabinet ministers were
calling for his expulsion because of more than nine months of violence.
Reports from an Israeli Cabinet meeting Monday reflected deep divisions
within Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's national unity government, with
hard-liners calling for an offensive against Arafat and moderates counseling
restraint.

Environment Minister Tsachi Hanegbi, from Sharon's Likud party, called for an
operation including attack helicopters and warplanes, according to the Yediot
Ahronot daily. Trade Minister Dalia Itzik of the Labor party warned that a
small war might turn into a big war.

Sharon took the side of the moderates, pounding his fist on the Cabinet table
in anger, according to the newspaper account, insisting that he has not
limited the actions of the military.

Sharon, meanwhile, toured the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau captured
from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war. He assured Jewish settlers there that
Israel would not withdraw from the Golan. ``This danger does not exist,'' he
said. ``Today the reality is different.''

Peace negotiations between Israel and Syria, conducted by Sharon's
predecessor Ehud Barak, broke down, though Barak offered to give back almost
all of the territory.

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