AUTHOR: Vlado Vurušić
POSTED: 01/15/2017. at 13:38

http://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/svijet/balkan-sljedece-mjesto-za-veliki-obracun-zapada-i-rusije-savjetnik-kremlja-upozorava-ne-treba-iskljuciti-mogucnost-novog-srpsko-hrvatskog-sukoba/5503663/

What is happening in the Balkans? Balkans again becomes a stage on which are breaking the interests of the world's great powers. In the Balkans, things are quite complicated, and according to some announcements, could become a testing ground for political confrontation between the West and Russia.

The eastern parts of the former Yugoslav states are the only "free" territory of Europe that Russia still can reflect on (which was virtually pushed out of Europe) because they are beyond the reach of the EU and NATO. This is down albeit only to Serbia and Bosnia, but enough to inflame passions. Russia and the West certainly have an interest and influence in the region. Croatia and Serbia have distinguished themselves as countries through which is "projected" this policy. Currently, the West is in crisis, but Brussels does not have a clear vision of the policy towards the Western Balkan area in addition to the general position of the Association and the formal effort to prevent Russia to anchor here. Russia in turn, currently exceeds the policy of permanent destabilization "infiltration crisis" in this area, yet all the intricate politics of survival in the Balkans, especially in Serbia and through, even tacit, support Dodik's secession escapades, which is dangerous and joined Tomislav Nikolic.

Russia at the moment seems far superior. In fact, a lot of things in 2016 went in her favor more than it is itself expected. The Kremlin is on Brexit wings and some other upcoming European "Exits" (many Western politicians mention the year 2017 as a key to the survival of the EU), significant (current) political-military victory in Syria and by that had Turkey, the former stable US and NATO ally embraced into its lap. Angela Merkel is faced with problems, and the (un)certainty which brings Donald Trump in international relations, and Vladimir Putin, the winner in 2016, is trying to grab the advantage over the dazed opponent before he came to himself, and the Balkans, especially Serbia, is that bite he as soon as possible, wants to complete.

Network over Serbia

Brussels and Moscow threw the nets over the Serbia and it is now tangled in both, but the patience of both "launchers", is slowly running out, even though Russia, at least so it seems has a slight advantage. But the pressure will be all the greater because both have enough aces up their sleeves available.

EU considers Vučić its player, he opened the negotiations and in the words that is the strategic goal of Serbia, but the EU is wandering and in Belgrade increasingly ask themselves whether this integration is still capable and desirable partner, especially as the Russian siren call is stronger and more attractive. Well, anyway, Aleksandar Vucic does not await an easy year and no matter how hard he will rebuke Croatia, he will have to step clearly on one side. Namely, since he is expected to make a final clearing and bring definitive decisions - EU or Russia, and there are still, as the weight - the presidential and possibly early parliamentary elections. The decision to whom to bow - EU or Russia - could become a crucial and decisive not only for Serbia but also the overall relations in our region, because any interested party has less patience with equilibrating Aleksandar Vucic - EU and Russia no longer correspond to its policy of balancing and compromise.

big promises

Both sides have called for Serbia to be reasonable and finally definitively decide, in that course it will not avoid the threats, says Russian Balkanologist Nikita Dedkov, which states that "the Serbian society is traditionally pro-Russian, and that before Vucic are decisions that could have far-reaching consequences". Of course, all under the assumption that Vučić still wants to join the Union because the EU on a long stick (undecided receptions asking the impossible - recognition of Kosovo and ultimately insecure about their own survival), but still tempting offer because Vučić is aware that otherwise Serbia could remain an isolated island in the middle of Europe.

On the other hand, Russia promises everything, right now. Vučić is therefore in all the more delicate position. Some however say that he could remain in the position of those indecisive ass who could not decide between the two dreaded shadow. Russia has strongly embraced Vucic and does not intend to let him go just like that. In this package is the famous "donation" MiG's. After Aleksandar Vucic from the rooftops spread the word that Serbia will get Russian MiG's-29, all in response to what was said in Belgrade, to "Croatian threats" and to prevent the recurrence of Flash and Storm military operations, which raises the question of its relation to the expansionistic politics of Slobodan Milosevic and the war in Croatia and possible message that with the strengthening and with Russia behind again it will go back to such a policy. Namely, that his statement could be interpreted as belligerent election rhetoric, but also in accordance with the rampant revision of history that is at work in Serbia.

In Russia, they are very serious about this, Serbian acceptance of the MiG's and do not consider this merely Vucic election trick to comfort and excite the Serbs and to scare the Croats, which for weeks Vucic blasted over the media under his control. Russians do not believe this is only a formal act. Kremlin is in hurry, it wants as soon as possible (quite logically from their point of view, because what you do without a European superpower base) and the more you tie with Serbia itself, in order to preserve at least a small influence in the Balkans, and therefore in Europe.

Mihail Aleksandrov, an analyst at the Moscow University Center for Military-Political Analysis, which advises the Kremlin believes that the sale of MiG's "arrived at the right time" for the EU and NATO are trying to press Serbia to decide to go for them.

- If you leave Serbia without our support, she can slip into NATO, which would be tantamount to national defeat of Serbia - says Aleksandrov who sees this as a defeat of Russia, which lost influence in the Balkans after two full centuries. Russia is so again considering the possibility of the idea of ​​"military alliance between the two countries." This idea was current at the end of the 90s, but notes that Aleksandrov then Yeltsin's Russia was too weak for Milosevic to accept.

- Now things have changed dramatically, and Russia and Serbia have both interest in this - he says. In fact, Russia does not want to miss the chance to "pushed" in to Serbia, including Aleksandrov believes that a military base in Serbia, along with Tartus in Syria, would be a big hit because it would, he said, "complicate eventual NATO operations in the Balkans and the Mediterranean, and Russia would have control. " The Kremlin already long requires that Serbia to their staff at "humanitarian", but in fact military base in Nis gives diplomatic status and freedom of movement in Serbia as Vučić recently allowed to employees of NATO. It was stalling by Vucic one of the reasons why half a year, month by month, was postponed the announced visit of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to Belgrade. Medvedev will come if the agreement is signed for a base, and he will thicken that by Russian investments and favorable loans, including those for the purchase of Russian weaponry.

Here comes the "BUK"?

Russian media said that after the MiGs Serbia will obtain missile systems BUK, a Aleksandrov even has goine so far as to believe that Serbia could be a country where Russia would install its anti-missile shield in response to NATO's missile shield. Alexander still believes that one should not "turn off potential of a new Serbo-Croatian conflict." Jelena Guskova from the Center for the Study of contemporary crises in the Balkans, however doubts in the Serbo-Croatian conflict, because, she says, "this time, unlike in the 90's behind Serbia stands Russia to whom the Balkans now are entering into the sphere of interest". However, as Croatia announces the purchase of American weapons, the two countries could become a testing ground on whose backs will break west-Russian rival relations. But that now the Serbs return the debt to Moscow speaks Serbian vote in the UN against the resolution of the Crimea, and recall, agains also voted Iran, Venezuela, Angola, North Korea, Cuba, Syria and Kazakhstan.

The burden of Kosovo

No, it's not just a question of NATO, it seems that Russia is reviewed and Serbia's EU membership. Thus, during the opening of the honorary Serbian Consulate in St. Petersburg where he was Tomislav Nikolić, Gennady Timchenko, the oligarch who is called "Putin's banker" said that "Serbia will not gain anything by joining the EU," as if "the Serbian companies and factories of doom", and even said that Serbia will pass "as well as Ukraine". Regarding negotiations with the EU, and well informed Kommersant Moscow brings an interesting observation, as a warning to passing Vucic. I Croatia, they say, in that game on the line Brussels - Moscow - Belgrade - has a role to play. When some other, more serious soil block Serbia negotiations with the EU (Germany, Netherlands, France), the local politicians and the media attached to Aleksandar Vucic almost redundant, but why when it comes to the blockade of Croatian not choosing his words. Kommersant argues that Andrej Plenković not block Serbia on its hands than on instructions from Brussels and Vucic, saying that one can always find a way to disable if continued flirtation with Russia and extend the policy of sitting on two chairs.

And finally, Russia has another advantage, and that is Kosovo. From Russia more often says that Serbia will in the end have to admit Brussels ballads Kosovo and that they are the only one who can help it. In Serbia, constantly creating an atmosphere that would be crucial and final condition for Serbia's EU. Although Serbia has no effect on Kosovo and the process of negotiations is practically Vučić accepted this reality and defeat, that no one has publicly uttered.

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Rest at source linked above.

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