A VERY SIMPLE ANALYSIS
• Everyone knows oranges contain vitamin C, which is necessary for good health.
• Florida is well-known for growing oranges.
• Extreme weather events like hurricanes and frosts damage orange groves and reduce the market supply.
• A reduced supply often triggers a temporary markup in the wholesale and retail price of a commodity.

Looking at the following commodity chart, orange juice futures prices began to increase steadily from $1.20 a pound back in February to its current level of more than $2.00 a pound.

Source: TheICE.com

In contrast, Hurricane Matthew didn't materialize as a potential threat to Florida until it formed in the Atlantic last month. Were speculators who took long positions in their orange juice futures back in February, March, or April of this year just plain lucky, or did they have inside information about the 2016 hurricane season?

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ICE FUTURES U.S.
https://www.theice.com/products/30/FCOJ-A-Futures

Description
The FCOJ-A futures contract is the world benchmark contract for the global frozen concentrated orange juice market. The contract prices physical delivery of U.S. Grade A juice (with grading performed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture), in storage in exchange licensed warehouse in several U.S. delivery points. Allowed countries of origin are the U.S., Brazil, Costa Rica and Mexico.

Contract Symbol: OJ
Contract Size: 15,000 pounds of orange juice solids (3% or less)
Price Quotation
Cents and hundredths of a cent to two decimal places