Articles, essays, opinions and analytics from KATEHON.COM

“Katehon think tank is an independent organization consisting of an international network of people - from a wide variety of fields and disciplines - who specialize in the geopolitical, geostrategic and political analysis of world events. The group consists of political thinkers, international relations (IR) researchers, experts in security and counter-terrorism, and journalists concerned with international affairs, geopolitics, ethno-politics and inter-religious dialogue. “

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Montenegro, Russia, and NATO

05.04.2016
Slavisa Batko Milacic

The first instance of official Russian – Montenegrin diplomatic contact was made in 1711, when Russian Tsar Peter the Great sent his envoys to Vladika (Bishop) Danilo, ruler of Montenegro. Vladika Danilo is the man who was responsible for the establishment of a pro-Russian cult in Montenegro, which still exists to this day. During this time, Russia was the protector of Montenegro, and played a key role in helping Montenegro remove the Ottoman Empire. In addition, Russia was the protector of Montenegro, and helped her in times of trouble. The people of Montenegro remember that and are eternally grateful to Russia. As a result, there is the term ‘Mother Russia’ in Montenegro.

But one man’s personal interests decided to change all that. That man is Milo Djukanovic, the current Prime Minister of Montenegro. The Djukanovic clan decided to sell Montenegro to the West due to private interests. All of this was done under the narrative that Montenegro wanted to change its “civilizational circle”. The 24th March marked 17 years since the beginning of NATO’s aggression against Serbia and Montenegro. The NATO intervention took place without the approval of the UN Security Council.
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What Is Cultural Marxism?

01.04.2016
Andrew Korybko

Cultural Marxism is first and foremost a neologism that its actual practitioners never ever use as a self-description and always scurry away from.

In brief, a Cultural Marxist is one who believes that that cultural/civilizational factors are irrelevant in understanding any type of social, political, or international form of relations, and in order to advance their "cultural-blind" end goal ideology, they:

(1) first support the dilution and then abolishment of majority cultures via the ‘politically correct’ dominance of minority/immigrant cultures, typically using slurring accusations of “racism”, “fascism”, and “white supremacy” to attack those who oppose this radical platform;

(2) and then afterwards ‘smoothing over’ all the remaining cultural mass into an amorpheous and unoriginal ‘blob’ which loses all aspects of its former cultural identity and is thenceforth molded into a new and unprecedented form of being.
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New Armenian-Azerbaijani war: Cui bono?

03.04.2016

Large-scale fighting has begun in Nagorno-Karabakh with the Azerbaijani army starting an offensive on the night of April 2nd, 2016 across the whole line of contact with the armed forces of Armenia, and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. After the day of fighting it was ceased, but may resume at every moment. Artillery, aviation and tanks were used, with both sides blaming each other for the escalation of the conflict, but the features of the Azerbaijani attack indicates a pre-planned operation. The age-old conflict between the two peoples of the region: Christian Armenians and Muslim Azerbaijanis, related to the Turks, broke out with renewed vigor.

Why Armenia is not interested in the conflict

The resumption of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is most dangerous for Armenia, which was previously quite satisfied with the status quo. The conflict of the late 80's early 90's resulted favorably for Armenia. Armenia could keep the conflict frozen for an indefinite time if it needed to. In fact, the territory has been under Armenian control.

Armenia had no reason to provoke Azerbaijan; after the defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh in the 90's, Azerbaijan has considerably strengthened and modernized its army. Money from the sale of oil and gas helped to accomplish this mission, yet Armenia does not possess these resources. In terms of the size of the army, including reservists, the number of people, the economic potential of Azerbaijan exceeds Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh Republic combined. This means that the war is risky for the Armenian side. In addition, Armenia will be forced to accept thousands of refugees, (Azerbaijan to take no one, because no Azerbaijanis would leave Nagorno-Karabakh), who will became a heavy burden on the social system of the country.
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Turkey: The Business of Refugee Smuggling, Sex Trafficking

04.04.2016
Uzay Bulut

Professional criminals convince parents that their daughters are going to a better life in Turkey. The parents are given 2000-5000 Turkish liras ($700-$1700) as a "bride price" -- an enormous sum for a poor Syrian family.

"Girls between the ages of twelve and sixteen are referred to as pistachios, those between seventeen and twenty are called cherries, twenty to twenty-two are apples, and anyone older is a watermelon." — From a report on Turkey, by End Child Prostitution, Child Pornography and Trafficking of Children for Sexual Purposes (ECPAT).

Many Muslims have difficulty with, or even an aversion to, assimilating into the Western culture. Many seem to have the aim of importing to Europe the culture of intimidation, rape and abuse from which they fled.

Although the desperate victims are their Muslim sisters and brothers, wealthy Arab states do not take in refugees. The people in this area know too well that asylum seekers would bring with them problems, both social and economic. For many Muslim men such as wealthy, aging Saudis, it is easier to buy Syrian children from Turkey, Syria or Jordan as cheap sex slaves.

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Geopolitics of corruption: George Soros and the Panama Leaks

05.04.2016

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Compromising the system’s enemies

The most frequently mentioned person affected by the scandal in the Western media is, of course, Vladimir Putin. The damaging information against the Russian president is a direct attack by the ruling circles of the West, and a tool of pressure against the President and a significant part of the Russian elite. They are forcing Russia to renounce an independent foreign policy, using the "exposure" and media hype around them as a tool. It is significant that the "independent journalists" also rushed to publish damaging material against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and President of South Africa Jacob Zuma. The West is leading a direct war against the former, and is trying to oust the latter because of his pro-Russian and pro-Chinese stance.

Pressure on the puppets

But if Putin's name is not mentioned in the published documents, and if the "evidence" gathered against the Russian president is indirect, two other post-Soviet leaders, Ilham Aliyev and his family, and Petro Poroshenko, are mentioned directly. It is significant that on the eve of the publication of the material, Aliyev, during his visit to the United States, decided to launch a war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Coincidence? I do not think so. Aliyev and Poroshenko’s inclusion in the Panama Papers is a sign that the West now holds the leadership of these countries on a short leash.
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Energy Security of the Balkan States: is there any alternative to Russian gas?

04.04.2016
Dušan Proroković

<..........................>The Balkans is located in an area important for the transport of oil and natural gas from the Middle East and Central Asia to western markets. This is the reason why since 1993 there were plans for eight energetic corridors to be built over the Balkans: "South stream" pipeline, then its successor the “Turkish stream”, “NABUCCO”, the “Trans-Adriatic pipeline”, “AGRI” and “East ring”, as well as the oil pipelines “AMBO” and “CPOT”. None of these projects were ever realized. The South Stream would connect Russia with Western Europe through Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and Slovenia. Without any doubt, it is the most important project. It is the only sustainable project. Under the current circumstances it is difficult to expect the realization of the Turkish Stream. NABUCCO was ambitious but unrealistic, and all other gas pipelines-TAP, AGRI and East Ring had a dual function. First, they were to influence the decline of consumption of Russian gas by the EU market. And secondly, to demonstrate to the leaderships of the Balkan states that the issue of energy security could be solved by relying on other projects, in which there is no participation of Russia. Both of these tasks are debatable.

The biggest western energy project in the last two decades that concerned the Balkans was the Nabucco pipeline. Although the construction of this pipeline was a political priority for the United States, it turned out that it cannot be be competitive to the “South Stream” pipeline. First, the capacity of Nabucco is supposed to be between 31 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which is only half of the capacity of the “South” or the “Turkish” stream. In addition it remained unclear from where Nabucco would be withdrawing the said amount of gas, as the source from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz can only fill the pipeline with a maximum of 16 billion cubic meters per year. Another open question is the price of the distributed gas, because of the length of the pipeline, and the associated costs of providing for the pipeline that would go through unstable areas. Therefore, even if it came to realization, it would not be possible to provide a significant alternative to Russian energy through Nabucco, nor can it reduce the energy dependence of Europe from Russia. The same goes for “Trans Adriatic”, AGRI and East Ring. The "Trans-Anatolian" pipeline as a Turkish project should be completed by 2018 and is supposed to initially bring about 16 billion cubic meters of gas per year to the "Trans Adriatic" pipeline.

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Fools or liars on the Trans-Pacific Partnership?

29.03.2016
Dean Baker

Given the recent flood of op-eds and editorials on the wonders of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Obama administration must be about to present the deal to Congress for approval. Otherwise, it’s hard to see why so many pieces would spontaneously appear on the TPP. Since there is real money at stake, we can expect the debate to get pretty low and nasty, with the pro-TPP forces liberally substituting ad hominems and claims to expertise for serious arguments.

My favorite on the lack-of-argument side is the exciting news that if the TPP were approved it would eliminate 18,000 tariffs on U.S. exports to the countries in the deal. That sounds like a huge boon to trade, right? Public Citizen looked up the 18,000 tariffs that would be eliminated. It found that the United States is not currently exporting in more than half of the categories in which these tariffs apply. Included in the list of tariffs to be removed are Malaysia’s shark fin tariffs, Vietnam’s whale meat tariffs, and Japan’s ivory tariffs.

The overwhelming majority of these tariffs are of little consequence in very narrow product categories, like Brunei’s tariff on ski boots. So when the proponents of the TPP tout the 18,000 tariffs, is this because they have no clue what they are talking about, or are they deliberately trying to deceive the public?

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