A Louis guest article on geopolitical possibility . . .

By DOOMERNAT - March 26, 2026

This is not a prediction that the Chabahar Bay raid will happen or on a particular date. This analysis is that it is the most viable mission with the current deployed forces in theater that meets the requirement of the Trump doctrine. Certainly, Trump is expressing a certain monomania around Kharg Island in the media these days.

The Trump doctrine is defined by many things.

Taking audacious risks, making the operation a media spectacle, not justifying or making the case for action or spending political capital beforehand, and letting success justify itself post hoc. Before taking the big gamble, the Trump doctrine is all about staying out of the range of the enemy whenever possible. The Trump doctrine is more conservative prior to action and shifts to being more audacious during it.

In the current conflict, the 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain was utterly abandoned by the Navy to simply be bombed at the pleasure of the Iranians, troops and ships were removed to reduce risk from Iranian capabilities. During the Venezuela operations, ships in the Caribbean stayed well out of missile range. The Trump doctrine is willing to take on significant risk in tactical terms. Losing Maduro’s helicopter and a squadron of Delta operators in a Chinook was prevented more by luck than anything else when the cockpit took a near miss. This refuge in audacity is not to be understated.

Also, all negotiations are victories even when they are failures. The Trump doctrine needs to end the conflict on a tactical high note more than it demands diplomatic or strategic success.

In Venezuela Trump audaciously ordered the kidnapping of Maduro, and the new government simply ended up offering the normal terms of sanctions relief the Venezuelans had offered prior, and Trump accepted. Nothing to do with drugs or criminal gangs was changed or any agreement reached. The diplomatic win was more minor than the kidnapping operation.

The Yemeni military, in its own conflict with the United States, was victorious and allowed to continue its blockade of Zionist-linked merchant shipping, but Trump claimed victory because U.S. naval ships were granted passage. Those same ships were not prevented passage before the conflict with Yemen. The Yemeni military also continued to send ballistic missiles at occupation bases in Palestine. Trump declared victory as the war ended with some U.S. bombing strikes before the Navy slinked away to Bahrain.

The 12-day war ended in much the same way. An American strike on Fordow and then a general ceasefire. The objectives of the war were not met by the Epstein coalition forces despite a devastating surprise attack during peace talks to open the conflict. In fact, Iran won the right to enrich uranium up to 60 percent, which was the contention of the talks that were interrupted by coalition bombs and, after the general ceasefire, were de facto permitted to the Iranians.

The current conflict is . . .

[SNIP]