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Volcano Updates; Rare Daytime Eruption on La Palma (videos)
My comments and updates:
I have been watching the La Palma volcano for over 3 weeks now. It is called a "Strombolian" type eruption, which means a steady eruption of lava fountains. These are known to go on for years. It is producing a steady stream of lava flow that is spreading across the island, destroying homes and farms(over 2,000), and reaching the sea.
It has 100 to 200 earthquakes a day, with yesterday having the largest at 4.8.
When the rumbling started to happen before the first eruption over 3 weeks ago, the earthquakes, in the 2-3 range, could be recorded as rising from 40 kilometers deep and steadily reach 2 kilometers. Once it reached that level, that is when the eruption took place. Since then the eruptions have been steady and the earthquakes restarted deep again, at around 40 kilometers deep. Yesterday the earthquakes were an average of 13 kilometers deep. Today they are 11 Kilom. deep. In my opinion it will still take several more days or over a week before the new rising magma mass will reach the surface and cause a large eruption.
The danger everyone is concerned about is an earthquake of 5 or stronger hitting the island. This would possibly cause the precarious fault line at the ridge of the lower part of the island to collapse into the sea and create a massive tsunami. This theory has not been debunked and is possible. But no one knows how probable it is. Which means the risk remains and it is prudent to watch the volcano and see what happens next.
If the mountain ridge collapses, the tsunami would travel to both north and south America and cause a lot of flooding of coastal cities. The wave as it reaches the eastern coast of the USA would be between 100 feet and 164 feet high. And cover between the Florida keys to Boston. If this happened the death toll would be in the millions. What are the chances of this happening? It is nearly impossible to predict. But if I were to guess I would say a 5% chance out of 100. If the ridge collapses the tsunami wave would take apx. 8 hours to reach the US. GE
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