Looking ahead to the Iowa Caucuses on Tuesday, February 1, IVN predicts that Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders will win their respective caucuses. However, IVN further predicts that the parties will find a way to take these wins away from them.

Every election year, IVN makes at least one prediction about the outcome of a major race. In 2012, IVN called Florida for Barack Obama before any other news outlet. In 2014, IVN projected that U.S. Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) was going to keep his seat in a hotly contested race against Republican Carl DeMaio.

This year, though the media reports a tight race going into the Republican and Democratic caucuses, IVN predicts that Trump and Sanders will take the popular vote and win their respective contests.

Both Trump and Sanders have strong support, not only from members of the Republican and Democratic parties, but from voters who are fed up with the status quo and feel disenchanted or disenfranchised by the current political system or cannot find a home in any political party.

The Republican leadership has frequently rebuked the candidacy of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is often at odds with the Democratic National Committee, which briefly denied him access to the party’s voter database in December and scheduled a limited number of debates on the weekend, an inconvenient time for a presidential primary debate.

This is why IVN further predicts that the parties will manipulate the private party rules that determine the allocation of delegates, including changing convention rules or going against the will of caucus voters, to make sure Sanders and Trump don’t get to eat the fruits of their victories.

It wouldn’t be the first time the parties have stepped in to alter the outcome in the nomination process.

In the 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus, Ron Paul officially came in third. However, Paul — who had a very similar appeal with voters as Trump and Sanders — had a different strategy than just winning votes. Paul’s grassroots-driven campaign encouraged supporters to remain at their polling location after the vote in order to become county delegates — the first step toward becoming a delegate at the national level.

IVN predicts that the parties will manipulate the private party rules that determine the allocation of delegates … to make sure Sanders and Trump don’t get to eat the fruits of their victories.

Unlike his primary opponents, Ron Paul played the delegate game, aimed at caucus states, and he played it well. However, reports suggest that various state Republican parties and the Republican National Committee blocked several Ron Paul delegates, either by unseating them or replacing them at the Republican National Convention.

Party leaders argued that Paul hadn’t secured a majority of the popular vote in any of the primary states, and therefore didn’t deserve the nomination. The party leadership also changed the rules during the 2012 convention to allow the RNC to change convention rules between conventions without the say of party delegates.

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