My final U.S. House computations are complete and barring last minute shifts, the Republicans should gain ten seats in Tuesday's national elections.

I have the GOP taking twelve seats currently held by the Democrats, while two Republican seats should go the other way. Since my last analysis on June 28, eighteen races have dropped from the list as no longer in danger of having the incumbent party lose. They are: CA 9 (D), CA 10 (R), FL 13 (R), IL 8 (D), MI 4 (R), MI 11 (R), MN 1 (D), MN 2 (R), NJ 2 (R), NM 2 (R), NC 2 (R), OH 6 (R), OH 14 (R), OR 5 (D), PA 8 (R), VA 2 (R), WV 1 (R), WI 7 (R). Note that fourteen of these are Republican seats and only four are Democrat. This has allowed the GOP to free up money and expand the playing field. Also, seven races have been added to the list. These contain: IA 4 (R), IA 2 (D), HI 1 (D), KS 2 (R), KS 3 (R), ND 1 (R), MA 4 (D). Note that this breaks pretty evenly with four Republican and three Democrat districts newly endangered. The recent craziness in Iowa and Kansas account for most of the new competitiveness while outliers in unexpected places (Hawaii, Massachusetts, North Dakota) have arisen from local issues and talented opponents.

There are now 64 seats where oppositions could conceivably triumph. Now, 37 are Democrat, 27 are Republican, so if there is further movement, it should be at the Democrats' expense. It doesn't appear the junior party will achieve John Boehner's goal of 245 sats, but they may get damn close. Mr. Obama cannot assume the lower house will get any more conciliatory in the near future.

Senate projections coming this weekend. Happy All Hallow's Eve.

ARIZONA

1

Ann Kirkpatrick (D)

Tossed out after one term in 2010, Kirkpatrick came back in an open reconfigured district in 2012. Gaffes, ineffective ads, and ballot shenanigans have marred this race. Dems maneuvered to have tribal elections the same day as the federal contest, hopefully boosting pro-Democrat Navajo participation. However she stumbled when her campaign entered a state holiday parade with a float which displayed a Mexican flag, but no American. The only polling has been done by a partisan conservative group which shows state Speaker Andy Tobin with a somewhat unbelievable moderate lead. His ads have been bland and sometimes confusing. Given the tide, and apparent movement toward the challenger, I'll pick the oust.

Last: Kirkpatrick (D) to hold by 1.5.

Now: Tobin (R) to take by 1.

2

Ron Barber (D)

Barber took over for his boss, Gabby Giffords, and won a close one against veteran and college prof Martha McSally in 2012. District still slightly leans R, McSally is back and this race has become slightly bizarre with reports of stalking by opposition staff, exaggerations of credentials, and unfair attack ads. Amazingly little polling has been done, given the assumed tightness of the campaign. It will be a photo finish and should follow the national wave.

Last: (R) to take by 1.

Now: Pick 'em (preference McSally (R) to take).

9

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Nader fan Sinema edged into this new district in '12 by 3 points and the tide is now running right. Air Force pilot Wendy Rogers runs in opposition. Although district has a slight right lean, Rogers hasn't aggressively made her case, signified by her recent decision to abstain from a televised candidate forum Sinema and a Libertarian attended. The GOP has better chances elsewhere and hasn't put a large bet on this one.

Last: Sinema (D) to hold by 2.5.

Now: Sinema (D) to hold by 4.

ARKANSAS

2

Open (R)

Incumbent Tim Griffin is looking for promotion to Lt. Gov and the area is only moderately Republican, so the Dems have a shot with ex-Little Rock Mayor Patrick Henry Hays. The GOP chose ex-Bush aide and banker French Hill. In this lean right area Hill has the advantage, but Hays has run a smarter campaign and has hammered Hill with the Romney tested "out of touch millionaire" label. With the Republicans gaining steam at the top of the ticket, there should be enough pull to carry Hill, but it's getting close.

Last: (R) to hold by 5.

Now: Hill (R) to hold by 3.

4

Open (R)

This is Tom Cotton's district and he's grabbing for the U.S. Senate. It's heavy GOP and Cotton won it when open last time by 23 in a slightly Dem year. However, the elder party's choice, ex-FEMA head James Lee Witt, has campaigned hard. Favored GOP state House Majority Leader Bruce Westerman hasn't and it seems the race is closing. Given the state and national mood, this still leans GOP, but Westerman should increase his energy.

Last: (R) to hold by 15.

Now: Westerman (R) to hold by 7.

CALIFORNIA

3

John Garamendi (D)

This one only leans Dem and Garamendi won by seven last time, four points behind Obama here. It doesn't seem a large enough wave is building to cause a turnover, but the GOP is going with a solid performer with state assemblyman Dan Logue. The GOP has better prospects elsewhere and this one appears to be sliding toward safe. Worth watching at the fringes, but an unlikely turnover.

Last: Garamendi (D) to hold by 6.

Now: Garamandi (D) to hold by 6.5.

7

Ami Bera (D)

Bellweather country. This district is straight up even and Bera ousted weak incumbent Dan Lungren in 2012 by 1.5. GOP isn't holding back with ex-U.S. Rep Doug Ose trying for a comeback. Huge money is being dropped here. Obamacare cuts both ways. Both are accusing the other of being Wall Street pawns. Should be enough of a national wave to force the turnover, although the Governor's race pulls left.

Last: Pick 'em (preference: Bera (D) to hold).

Now: Ose (R) to take by 1.5.

21

David Valadao (R)

Despite a tiny D tilt and an Obama 11 point sweep here in 2012, Valadao romped by 17 over a weak Dem. The Dems opted up to former congressional aide Amanda Renteria. Valadao has maintained a large, although shrinking, lead and has to keep the energy high. Dems are pulling money out, though, and seem to be conceding here.

Last: Valadao (R) to hold by 8.5.

Now: Valadao (R) to hold by 7.5.

26

Julia Brownley (D)

Mild left tilt here and 10 point Obama coattails helped Brownley oust Tony Strickland by four in 2012. State Assemblyman Jeff Gorell carries the GOP banner. The demographics work for Brownley, but she has been uninspiring and needs a heavy hispanic turnout. Big dollars are flying around and this is tight.

Last: Brownley (D) to hold by 2.5.

Now: Brownley (D) to hold by 1.

31

Open (R)

The jungle primary warped this seat in 2012 as two Rs emerged after a host of Ds split the majority vote in this moderate D district. Incumbent freshman Gary Miller bailed and the strongest candidate, former Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar (D), made the final two. He should have coasted against GOP primary leader Paul Chabot, but the race remains competitive. National Dems are a bit annoyed they have to spread wealth here, but it should be a worthwhile investment.

Last: (D) to take by 5.5.

Now: Aguilar (D) to take by 4.5.

36

Raul Ruiz (D)

Mr. and Mrs. Sonny Bono held this seat for 18 years before mild Obama coattails helped Ruiz oust the widow by four. This straight up neutral area's breeze has shifted, however. The Rs have experienced state legislator Brian Nestande but the incumbent seems to be holding up. The GOP has better bets elsewhere.

Last: Ruiz (D) to hold by 2.

Now: Ruiz (D) to hold by 3.5.

52

Scott Peters (D)

Peters edged technical incumbent Brian Bilbray in this redrawn district by 2.5 in 2012. There's only a slight D bend here and he stumbled by posting what were interpreted as anti-gay slurs against his foe, GOP former San Diego councilman Carl DeMaio. This one seems poised to tilt back and the polls support DeMaio by a little.

Last: (R) to take by 1.5.

Now: DeMaio (R) to take by 2.

COLORADO

6

Mike Coffman (R)

Coffman survived by 3.5 here last time although Obama took by five. District is virtually vertical and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff is his nemesis. The top line leaning right seems to have helped him as national Dems have pulled money out. Still could change, but the flow is carrying Coffman.

Last: Coffman (R) to hold by 1.5.

Now: Coffman (R) to hold by 3.5.

CONNECTICUT

5

Elizabeth Esty (D)

This is the least Dem district in CT and Esty is a freshman who won by three while Obama was winning by 9. The state seems ready to toss out the first term Dem Gov following tax hikes and rising unemployment, but Esty has used the "out of touch millionaire" ploy against the GOP's businessman Mark Greenberg and appears to be getting away with it.

Last: Esty (D) to hold by 7.

Now: Esty (D) to hold by 7.5.

FLORIDA

2

Steve Southerland (R)

Fairly strong R lean here, but both Romney and Southerland strained to win last time by about five each. After coming in with the 2010 Tea Party wave, Southerland has been an ardent foe of Obamacare. Dems are trying to use the issue against him and have recruited the daughter of former U.S. Senator Bob Graham to make the run. Southerland's prickly personality keeps his favorability down, and he could be in trouble in 2016 if Graham seeks a rematch, but for now he appears to be riding a large enough tide.

Last: Southerland (R) to hold by 6.

Now: Southerland (R) to hold by 4.5.

18

Patrick Murphy (D)

Murphy scraped by half a point over Tea Party icon Allen West last time, so many expected war. GOP has backed off, though, and nominated unexciting ex-state rep Carl Domino. Mild right lean would seem to benefit GOP here, but they don't appear to be trying that hard against the energetic Murphy.

Last: Murphy (D) to hold by 2.

Now: Murphy (D) to hold by 3.5.

26

Joe Garcia (D)

Garcia defeated a damaged opponent last time by ten, but now has to work in this tiny tilt right area, since he was caught on camera eating his earwax and he joked (?) "communism works". The Republican, Miami Dade School Board member Carlos Curbelo, seems an ideal pick. Best info indicates Curbelo is pulling ahead.

Last: Garcia (D) to hold by 2.

Now: Curbelo (R) to take by 1.

GEORGIA

12

John Barrow (D)

This is the second least partisan district in Georgia. Unfortunately for Barrow, it still leans against him heavily. Both Romney and McCain carried by 12 while Barrow was surviving by seven. This year's GOP flavor is construction company owner Rick Allen. Sooner or later this seat will revert to Republican, and many analysts see this tightening because of the razor thin margins at the top.

Last: Barrow (D) to hold by 4.5.

Now: Barrow (D) to hold by 2.

HAWAII

1

Open (D)

Charles Djou (R) won a three way special election in 2010 to snare a six month term in the U.S. House. He was dispatched later that year by Colleen Hanabusa. However, Hanabusa gave up the seat to lose a squeaker U.S. Senate primary. Most thought the seat would remain easily Dem, but surprise, surprise, Djou seems to have built up a fair amount of good will in the district because of his previous service, and polls show him with a miniscule advantage over Dem state Rep Mark Takai. With the Dems having messy and acrimonious primaries in both the Govenor's and U.S. Senate races, and the gubernatorial race still competitive, this contest has moved solidly into the Tossup range. Can't quite bring myself to believe even a talent like Djou can overcome the heavy left demographics, though.

Last: Not Listed.

Now: Takai (D) to hold by 2.

ILLINOIS

10

Brad Schneider (D)

Despite somewhat heavy Dem lean here, moderate R Mark Kirk held this seat for several terms and was followed in 2010 by his assistant, Bob Dold. Schneider managed to oust Dold by one in 2012, but ran fourteen points behind Obama. Dold is back but Schneider is benefiting from the tightening Governor's race. Might be the closest finish in the country.

Last: (R) to take by 2.

Now: Pick 'em (preference Dold (R) to take).

11

Bill Foster (D)

This seat shouldn't be slightly endangered, but it is. It is a nudge less left than the neighboring Tenth and the Republican is a credible state rep, Darlene Senger. Foster carried by sixteen last time, but Senger has effectively reversed the "uncaring millionaire" ploy against the Democrat. Foster's attacks have also been sloppy and the polls show this as competitive.

Last: Foster (D) to hold by 11.5.

Now: Foster (D) to hold by 4.5.

12

Bill Enyart (D)

The Dem gerrymander caused Enyart to lose a few advantages since he seemed safe. Continued demographic shifts have caused this area to slip to straight up. The R is a reputable state rep Mike Bost and the tide is right. Plus a Green may drain from the left. Bost's temperament is an issue, but the polls show a tossup.

Last: Enyart (D) to hold by 4.5.

Now: Enyart (D) to hold by 1.

13

Rodney Davis (R)

Davis and Romney inched across the line here in 2012. The Dems have united quickly around ex-county judge Ann Callis and this was well-funded on both sides. However the national Dems are pulling money out. Polls are still close, but with the lean virtually vertical, and Davis having won tough last time, he gets the advantage.

Last: Davis (R) to hold by 3.

Now: Davis (R) to hold by 4.

17

Cheri Bustos (D)

Bustos ousted Bobby Schilling by 6.5 in the Dem 2012 sweep here while Obama was locally up 17. Schilling is in it again, so Bustos has to deal with both an experienced pro and an unfavorable state trend. District does have a moderate left lean, though, so she has to motivate the partisans. National Dems are pouring in money because the polls are slightly against her.

Last: Bustos (D) to hold by 1.

Now: Schilling (R) to take by 2.

INDIANA

2

Jackie Walorski (R)

Walorski came in under 50% while winning by 1.5 to gain this mildly R district in 2012. Dems don't seem all that serious with ex-state rep Joe Bock gaining their nod. I don't think many incumbent Rs are in trouble in Indiana this year. District seems to be heading for the GOP safe zone.

Last: Walorski (R) to hold by 6.

Now: Walorski (R) to hold by 9.

IOWA

1

Open (D)

Bruce Braley is trying for the Senate and this mild D district is up for grabs. The elder party seems to have the quality with past state House Speaker Pat Murphy making the run. Software company owner Rod Blum emerged on the Republican side. Braley's missteps are causing pain down the line and the Dems are forced to pour funds here. The polling remains close.

Last: (D) to hold by 8.5.

Now: Murphy (D) to hold by 3.

2

Dave Loebsack (D)

The volatile political environment in Iowa has resulted in all five races for congress becoming competitive. This is probably the least likely to switch, but a strong effort by Iowa Medical Society President Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) has shoved this on to the radar. Polls still show Loebsack with a double digit, albeit shrinking, margin. If this one changes hands it means swing state Iowa has gone solid red.

Last: Not Listed.

Now: Loebsack (D) to hold by 10.

3

Open (R)

Tom Latham is saying goodbye and this district is flat even. He was shoved into a member/member contest last time with Leonard Boswell, winning by 8.7. The GOP boldly chose long shot former Senate aide David Young at the convention after an inconclusive primary. Young started as a fresh face, but has drawn criticism for a lackluster effort. Meanwhile, Dem Staci Appel has kept the pressure on. Polling is scattered.

Last: (R) to hold by 3.5.

Now: Pick 'em (preference Young (R) to hold).

4

Steve King (R)

King's seat has become somewhat questionable because of the energy and qualifications of Democrat Pentagon staffer 28 year old Jim Mowrer. They have clashed on Ebola policy, immigration, and farm bills with Mowrer outright claiming King's lack of military service handicaps the incumbent. There's enough of a right lean and experience by the seven term King to make this close to safe, but it has crept on to the radar.

Last: Not Listed.

Now: King (R) to hold by 11.

KANSAS

2

Lynn Jenkins (R)

The sudden weakness by the GOP in both the Governor's and U.S. Senate race has trickled down to the U.S. House races. While none of the seats seem seriously threatened, incumbents have seen fit to increase their efforts. Jenkins caused a bit of a controversy by strongly attacking her adversary, Congressional District Chair Margie Wakefield, on Obamacare. Even the Republican state Insurance Commissioner advised the attacks included inaccuracies. Given the rapidly evolving local political situation, anything is possible, but Jenkins has enough backing to keep her seat.

Last: Not Listed.

Now: Jenkins (R) to hold by 12.

3

Kevin Yoder (R)

This district is slightly less right than the others in KS, and Dems caught a break with ex-state Senator Kelly Kultala. She has run an energetic, even amusing campaign, mixing a funny ad about an odd skinny dipping incident involving Yoder several years ago with strident attacks on the incumbent's stand on Social Security. With the state political scene in turmoil, she's taking advantage and seems to be surging, although polling is non-existant.

Last: Not Limited.

Now: Yoder (R) to hold by 6.5.

MAINE

2

Open (D)

Mike Michaud is in a dogfight for the promotion to Governor. The Second has only a small left lean, although Obama won by nine and Michaud sixteen in 2012. The Dems decided on former house Minority Leader Emily Cain. The GOP took ex-state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin. Both sides went partisan with the winners defeating more establishment opponents. The top pull is mixed, with U.S. Senator Susan Collins cruising and Gov. Paul LePage struggling. Polls are all over the lot with voters finding both too extreme. Gotta stick with the lean.

Last: (D) to hold by 2.5.

Now: Cain (D) to hold by 2.5.

MASSACHUSETTS

6

Open (D)

Incumbent John Tierney failed to overcome his wife doing jail time for a gambling scandal which he, unconvincingly, claimed he had no connection to. Dem businessman Seth Moulton grabbed the nomination and seemed to have a clear path over Richard Tisei, the same gay Republican Tierney edged in 2012. However, recent polling shows Tisei surging into the lead. I still can't buy the upset in this moderate left district.

Last: (D) to hold by 1.5.

Now: Moulton (D) to hold by 1.5.

9

Bill Keating (D)

With the governor's mansion going south, and the sixth district a tossup, Dems didn't need polls showing the ninth suddenly close. Former Romney staffer John Chapman is hammering the two term incumbent for anti-business bias and Mass seems tired of one party rule. The state and national Dems are annoyed at having yet another left seat needing a money infusion, but they may have no choice. They should be able to pull it out, but the senior party didn't expect their line of defense setting up in Hawaii, New York, California, Illinois, and Massachusetts this year.

Last: Not Listed.

Now: Keating (D) to hold by 4.

MICHIGAN

1

Dan Benishek (R)

The Tea Party rebellion hoisted Benishek from obscure surgeon to Congress. He survived the 2010 primary by fifteen votes and survived the general in 2012 by half a per cent. The demographics have evolved to a moderate right lean. Democrat ex-county sheriff Jerry Cannon doesn't seem to have the horses nor political experience. With top pull mixed and pulling away most donations, Benishek has a clear path.

Last: Benishek (R) to hold by 6.5.

Now: Benishek (R) to hold by 5.

7

Tim Walberg (R)

There's only a small R lean here, so Walberg has to be careful the floor doesn't collapse. He carried by ten last time while Romney edged by four. Dem ex-state rep Pam Byrnes hasn't displayed exceptional talent. Walberg should trot across the line first. This one is barely still on the radar.

Last: Walberg (R) to hold by 9.

Now: Walberg (R) to hold by 11.

8

Open (R)

Mike Rogers is out of here in this tiny tilt R district and former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R) wants the promotion. The elder party picked Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing. Rogers carried by 21 last time as Romney led by three. The debates have featured squabbles over Social Security and questionable accusations by Bishop against Schertzing's use of county money in staffing. The national Dems have stayed out of it with larger stakes needed for the competitive U.S. Senate and Governor's races.

Last: (R) to hold by 4.

Now: Bishop (R) to hold by 6.5.

MINNESOTA

7

Colin Peterson (D)

There's a noticeable Republican preference here and Romney took by ten. Peterson didn't have to sweat as he romped by 25 in 2012. Peterson straddles enough that he gets by as the third most likely Dem to vote against his party. The GOP is serious this time, with state senator Torrey Westrom getting solid funding. Both are complaining about outside attacks and a partisan conservative polling group, unbelievably, has Westrom ahead. They're likely wrong, and Peterson is playing the bipartisan card well.

Last: Peterson (D) to hold by 6.5.

Now: Peterson (D) to hold by 4.5.

8

Rick Nolan (D)

Virtually no lean here, but Nolan won by nine in 2012, leading Obama by three. The GOP went all Brad Pitt, with long haired sexy businessman Stewart Mills a novice but alluring choice. There's also a Green draining left votes. The one legitimate poll shows Mills up by a shocking eight points, with Nolan suffering on the Obamacare issue. If the sweep is large enough, Congress will get a rock star, but for now...

Last: Nolan (D) to hold by 6.

Now: Nolan (D) to hold by 1.

MONTANA

1

Open (R)

Ex-state senator Ryan Zinke emerged from a large primary pack. Dems went with ex-congressional aide John Lewis. Polls show a moderate R lead, but Zinke is still running hard. Looks like a Republican year in a Republican state.

Last: (R) to hold by 8.

Now: Zinke (R) to hold by 8.

NEBRASKA

2

Lee Terry (R)

How mediocre does a nine term Republican incumbent have to be to lose in Nebraska in a GOP year? We may find out. Terry barely survived his primary and now a Tea Party independent will drain votes in the general, plus there's a Libertarian, plus the Democrat, Brad Ashford, is a formidable state senator. The district is only mildly Republican and Terry scraped by 2.5 while Romney won by seven in 2012. Part of the cause is decade old stuff when Terry was caught bending his elbow overmuch with women not his wife. Most of it is that, after nine terms, Terry has proven himself uninspiring, slippery, unmotivated, and, well, mediocre.

Last: Terry (R) to hold by 5.

Now: Terry (R) 2.5. to hold.

NEVADA

3

Joe Heck (R)

Heck ousted now First District Rep Dina Titus here in 2010 and won by eight last time while Obama carried the district by half an inch. Absolutely even distribution here. Dem national committeewoman Erin Bilbray, daughter of a former GOP U.S. Rep, has the connections and money, but not the renown. This is expensive, but still should be Heck's easiest race yet. National Dems have walked away and Heck has a clear path.

Heck (R) to hold by 7.

Heck (R) to hold by 8.5.

4

Steven Horsford (D)

Horsford received some pull from Obama while winning by eight in 2012. There's also a mild left lean. The Republicans settled on state assemblyman Crescent Hardy. Unless Nevada undergoes a conservative paroxysm, Horsford should rejoin the next Congress.

Last: Horsford (D) to hold by 6.

Now: Horsford (D) to hold by 6.5.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

1

Carol Shea-Porter (D)

After being tossed by Frank Guinta in 2010, Shea-Porter returned the favor in 2012. It's time for round three. This district has a tiny right tilt. Obama won here by less than two and the tide has shifted. Polling has randomly walked around the dead even line, with one spurious and tiny UMass/Amherst offering showing the incumbent with a seventeen point lead. With Republicans surging in both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, looks like a rare GOP win in New England.

Last: (R) to take by 1.5.

Now: Guinta (R) to take by 2.

2

Ann Kuster (D)

Kuster avenged an open seat loss to returning U.S. Rep Charlie Bass in 2010 by finally retiring Bass in 2012. The Republicans came on strong with state rep Marilinda Garcia. There is a mild Dem lean here and Kuster took by a solid five points last time, although that was five behind Obama. Polls show Garcia closing, although the consensus remains with the incumbent. This probably won't be Kuster's last stand.

Last: Kuster (D) to hold by 3.5.

Now: Kuster (D) to hold by 2.5.

NEW JERSEY

3

Open (R)

Jon Runyon's drop after only two terms in this even district which Obama won small twice raised this one to barnburner status. Both sides went with competence and experience with ex-mayor Tom MacArthur leading the GOP and county freeholder Aimee Belgard contending for the Dems. Runyon won last time by nine and the infrequent polls appear to give MacArthur a mild lead.

Last: (R) to hold by 1.

Now: MacArthur (R) to hold by 3.

NEW YORK

1

Tim Bishop (D)

This slight R lean district has always given Bishop a headache to hold. He won by 4.5 last time, four points ahead of Obama. He will face a rematch with his 2008 foe, state senator Lee Zeldin, who's trying to take Eric Cantor's old slot as the only Jewish Republican in Congress. If the rightward breeze picks up, Bishop could be toppled. Polling is spotty, but shows Bishop with a lead.

Last: Bishop (D) to hold by 2.

Now: Bishop (D) to hold by 3.5.

4

Open (D)

Gun restriction advocate Carolyn McCarthy leaves with her agenda largely unfulfilled and both sides have A-list contenders. Dems chose District Attorney Kathleen Rice. GOP countered with former County Legislator and former State Controller nominee Bruce Blakeman. Mild D lean here and Obama won by twelve. Polling shows Rice is cruising and the GOP is concentrating on better local bets.

Last: (D) to hold by 6.5.

Now: Rice (D) to hold by 7.

11

Michael Grimm (R)

Oops. Federal indictments have a way of upsetting incumbents. Grimm claims it's a political set up. Meanwhile, City Councilman Dominic Recchia is on offense in this mild right tilt area. A Green impairs his chances slightly. Obama did carry here by five last time, but Recchia has been uninspiring and the only legitimate poll actually has Grimm ahead.

Last: (D) to take by 2.

Now: Pick 'em (preference Recchia (D) to take).

18

Sean Maloney (D)

Maloney won this straight up district by 3.5 while Obama was carrying by four. The Republican he ousted, Nan Hayworth, got the rematch. Has the tide shifted enough for her to rebound? Maybe. The GOP brand has gained less ground this cycle in the Northeast than elsewhere, however. The only valid poll, over a month old, has Maloney by eight, but Dems are skittish because the lack of major races might mean decreased turnout.

Last: Maloney (D) to hold by 1.5.

Now: Maloney (D) to hold by 3.

19

Chris Gibson (R)

Tiny D tilt here and Obama took by six. However, Gibson won by seven last time under those circumstances. Dems decided to go extreme with rich kid homosexual agenda activist Sean Eldridge. Although Eldridge has a ton of money, he hasn't spent it well. Plus, he has the most insincere smile I've ever seen on a campaign site. This is barely on the radar and the only valid poll has Gibson +24.

Last: Gibson (R) to hold by 9.

Now: Gibson (R) to hold by 11.5.

21

Open (D)

In this dead even district, Bill Owens scraped by two while Obama carried by six last time. This followed a similar experience in 2010. Owens decided to leave as a winner. Dems went with documentary producer and green grocer Aaron Woolf. White House aide Elise Stefanik (R) has run an energetic campaign and the polls show this approaching blowout. Dems have pretty much conceded and a Green might well drain 10 points on the left.

Last: (R) to take by 1.5.

Now: Stefanik (R) to take by 8.

23

Tom Reed (R)

Mild right tilt here and Reed and Romney both managed to scrape out two point wins last time. County Legislator Martha Robertson provides adequate competition, though she stumbled badly recently by claiming Reed, who has eight sisters, was anti-woman. The comment elicited groans from a debate crowd. No polling has been done, but the consensus remains this is a long shot for the Dems.

Last: Reed (R) to hold by 4.5.

Now: Reed (R) to hold by 6.5.

24

Dan Maffei (D)

Maffei is in trouble in this moderate left lean district Obama carried by 16. He only won in 2012 by 4.5 with 48.6. He's against attorney John Katko in a head-to-head match and a surprising new poll indicates Maffei has dropped 20 points in five weeks. Even Katko's internal polls aren't that positive, so I'm cautious.

Last: Maffei (D) to hold by 4.

Now: Maffei (D) to hold by 2.

NORTH CAROLINA

7

Open (D)

Mike McIntyre is the latest of the vanishing Blue Dog breed to get out before he's shoved. The 0.2 point scrape last time was his final clue. The losing Republican from then, ex-state senator Dave Rouzer, has assumed the lead position in this largely GOP area and shouldn't have much trouble from Dem County Commissioner Jonathan Barfield.
If McIntyre had been a Republican, this wouldn't be listed at all, as it is safe GOP. As a turnover, it is mentioned.

Last: (R) to take by 14.

Now: Rouzer (R) to take by 16.5.

NORTH DAKOTA

1

Kevin Cramer (R)

This one came out of nowhere. With no high level offices open and a general GOP tide seemingly building, no one thought Cramer had to even wake up for this one. However, ND did elect a Dem U.S. Senator in 2012 and the Dems did put up state Senator (and son of a former Governor) George Sinner. Sinner does seem to have inherited some political genes, has attacked Cramer as anti-woman, and is seen as closing on the incumbent. Polling is all internal, but even Cramer's show the difference approaching single digits. Sinner claims a dead heat. The truth is somewhere in between, but Cramer must push through to seal the deal.

Last: Not Listed.

Now: Cramer (R) to hold by 9.5.

PENNSYLVANIA

6

Open (R)

Jim Gerlach managed four close wins before finally opening up some space in 2010 and blowing the gates off in 2012, winning by fourteen while Romney was scraping by two. So, of course, he decides to retire from this tiny tilt right district. The GOP seems more serious than the Dems. County Commissioner Ryan Costello will try to keep this seat nailed down for the GOP, while the Dems are retreading Dr. Manan Trevedi, who was stomped by Gerlach in 2010 and 2012. Three tries is likely not the charm here. Despite top pull for the Dems in the governor's race, there's no sign that's affecting any lower office.

Last: (R) to hold by 9.

Now: Costello (R) to hold by 9.

TEXAS

23

Pete Gallego (D)

Romney carried this mild right lean area by three while Gallego held by five, so the incumbent can fight the tide. Unfortunately for him, the adverse drift should only increase with the Governor's race providing huge swells for the GOP. He benefits from this being the only competitive race of any sort in TX this year, so the state party can shovel him dollars. Will Hurd, an ex-CIA employee who was the Republican nominee here in 2010, is going again. Gonna be close, but Gallego seems to be holding his own.

Last: Gallego (D) to hold by 1.5.

Now: Gallego (D) to hold by 2.

UTAH

4

Open (D)

If this were Open (R), it wouldn't be mentioned because it will stay in R hands. However, after Jim Matheson barely survived in 2012, he knew it was time to bid adieu. This leaves Sarasota Springs Mayor Mia Love as the prohibitive favorite in her second run for this heavily rightward district which Romney won by 37. The Dems did the best they could with attorney Doug Owens. The polls haven't shown Love blowing it open, but a double digit win still seems likely.

Last: (R) to take by 16.

Now: Love (R) to take by 11.5.

VIRGINIA

10

Open (R)

Only a tiny right tilt here and Romney barely finished ahead. However, outgoing U.S. Rep Frank Wolf swept by twenty and this would be safe if he ran again. He's out and the Dems are respectable with County Supervisor John Foust. GOP got their best with State Delegate Barbara Comstock. Foust has made lobbying ethics charges against Comstock to uncertain effect. Polling is scarce but the consensus believes Foust is keeping it close.

Last: (R) to hold by 7.5.

Now: Comstock (R) to hold by 4.

WASHINGTON

1

Suzan DelBene (D)

Only a moderate Dem tilt here and the incumbent ran four points behind Obama last cycle. Still, she won by seven. The GOP chose Mexican immigrant and Ph.D. Pedro Celis who has challenged DelBenes on energy policy, minimum wage, and environmental issues. While she has the advantage, he has run a sharp campaign and this might be close.

Last: DelBene (D) to hold by 5.

Now: DelBene (D) to hold by 3.5.

WEST VIRGINIA

2

Open (R)

This is Shelley Capito's seat as she storms toward the U.S. Senate. This will be a contest of former state party chairs as the Maryland ex-chief, Alex Mooney, transplanted to make the run. Dems WV ex-chief, Nick Casey, carries the Dem banner. There is slippage because of Mooney's carpetbagging and a Libertarian drain. However, there's a heavy tilt right, and Capito won by forty last time while Romney romped by 22. Mooney has had to exert himself as Casey is hitting the home grown issue hard.

Last: (R) to hold by 17.

Now: Mooney (R) to hold by 9.5.

3

Nick Rahall (D)

Rahall did carry by almost eight while Romney romped by 32 in this hard right district. However, the Rs are more focused, sensing a statewide romp. State Senator Evan Jenkins was carefully vetted and has steamroller momentum. Seems like WV finally completes the shift to crimson.

Last: (R) to take by 2.

Now: Jenkins (R) to take by 2.

WISCONSIN

6

(R) Open

Incumbent Tom Petri romped here by 24 while Romney cruised by seven in this moderately GOP district. The Dems quickly consolidated around County Executive Mark Harris, but caught no luck when Republicans chose state Senator Glenn Grothman. The fierce Governor's race shouldn't impact the lean here.

Last: (R) to hold by 4.

Now: Grothman (R) to hold by 7.5.