March 19, 2015, 17:40
Photo: Alex Danichev / RIA "Novosti"
Text: Olga Samofalova
"This is a mistake in the original strategy of the company in the lineup and the level of localization."
With these words in the Russian government commented on the most high-profile events in the Russian market during the last few days - a full withdrawal of "Opel", and a number of "Chevrolet" models. Place of outdated models from "General Motors" is ready for other manufacturers.
On Thursday it became known that the supply of cars in Russia was completely stopped by South Korean automaker SsangYong. The reason - the weakening of the ruble and rising of their currency, Reuters reported citing an representative of that company.
Just in 2013, Russia was the largest market for SsangYong, but in 2014 deliveries fell sharply by 41%, according to the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association. This year, sales of SsangYong vehicles in Russia suffered a complete fiasco, dropping, in the first two months, by 61%, according to the Association of European Businesses (AEB). In January - February period they managed to sell only about 1,300 cars Korean brand.
Anyhow, the South Korean group leaves no hope of returning to the Russian market, the ruble will get stronger. In addition, the concern is that they did not react on the refusal to collect their models at the site of the Russian Sollers at Far East.
In contrast to the US General Motors, which on the eve of a suddenly, even for its dealers, announced the complete withdrawal from the Russian market of the brand Opel, as well as most of the models of the brand Chevrolet. ON the Russian market they left only Chevrolet Camaro, Chevrolet Niva and premium models Cadillac. GM also freezes its production at the GM plant in St. Petersburg and contract assembly of several models at the facilities of GAZ Group.
GM goes out by their own business mistakes
The main reason for the refusal of assembly plants localization - that GM just did not have time to bring the level of localization to an acceptable point. The devaluation of the ruble made the same assembly machines too expensive. "The smaller the localization, the harder it is to compete in the market," - said the head of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.
This is the first of the foreign corporations, who decided to stop selling popular models in favor of premium level vehicles, and close the Russian factories. However, other such unexpected moves no one is expecting.
"We do not see this trend," - says Manturov, when asked about a possible withdrawal of other foreign producers from the Russian market. "As for GM, it made a mistake in the original strategy of the company in terms of range and level of localization," - he said.
According to the Minister, at today's exchange rate of the ruble level of localization of production of GM's of 25% does not allow this automaker to compete, for example, the German Volkswagen and South Korean automakers, ave reached the level of localization of over 50%. "We believe that the decision of the company is absolutely not political, but it is due to it's economic strategy", - concluded the head of the Industry and Trade Ministry.
Other carmakers suggest that they do not support the decision of General Motors to withdraw from the Russian market. In Renault and Nissan say that they plan to stay in the Russian market, despite the crisis in the industry.
Renault «continues to believe in the Russian market and considers it strategic." This year, the company is launching new models.
In Nissan indicated that their production plan, of course, are adjusted according to the needs of the market, but are not going to change their strategic plans for Russia. "The plant in St. Petersburg, we suspend the assembly line from 16 to 31 March, but there is was power cut and layoffs are not carried out," - said a spokesman for Nissan.
American holding Ford and German Volkswagen also announced the preservation of their investment program in the Russian market. The Germans, as planned, in the second quarter of 2015 will open a central warehouse of spare parts and accessories in Chekhov plus engine plant in Kaluga.
The Ford also said that the company continues to work on a plan with the launch of new models, as well as engine plant, reports Tass. Though I must admit that the sale of the American concern is much more sad than the sale of Opel and Chevrolet concern GM. Even General Motors in 2014 remained among the leaders in the Russian market, especially good position were at Chevrolet. The same Ford in recent years strongly "shabby", and once his Ford Focus was the best selling and most popular foreign car in Russia.
GM put himself at a disadvantage
Even Ford still hopes to return to its former glory in Russia. Therefore, there is a suspicion that the decision could affect the geopolitics of GM, given US claims that sanctions against Russia never will be canceled.
If the refusal to build cars in Russia, given the low localization, yet can be justified by economic reasons, here's refusal to sell mass models in favor of premium looks unusual. Other automakers, on the contrary, are now trying to get rid of the niche, using the least popular models focusing on the mass car. Especially that from April will start the program of preferential car loan, on which you can buy cars assembled in Russia worth up to 750 thousand. Rubles.
However, we can not exclude that this is just a publicity stunt GM. Resignation forever Opel and Chevrolet, on the sale of mass models of these brands with big discount until the end of the year - it's definitely stimulate demand for them.
In any case, if the GM does not change his mind, other automakers will benefit from the withdrawal of American brands. So says, for example, the head of the Association of European Businesses Philip Pegorier and a spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov.
"In the market there is no vacuum. And if one leaves the company, its place once filled with other companies, - stated the representative of the Kremlin. - And most importantly, that, of course, the company has, unfortunately, already pre puts itself at a disadvantage at a time when the market enters a phase of revitalization. " According to Peskov, we can already say with certainty that the drop in sales will be replaced by rapid growth. "And then, unfortunately, this company will be among the losers" - he concluded.
Gazprombank analyst Kirill Nicodemus believes that niche GM are taking a more successful producers, whose level of localization of production is more than 40%, "as well as more aggressive marketing and updating the model range." From leaving Chevrolet wins first Nissan, which is good in general and for AvtoVAZ, where the Japanese with the French Renault - shareholders.
"The place of the outgoing brands occupy other - the competition in each segment is large, and it is difficult to say now who is luckier most likely it will be a model of Asian brands," - says George Vashenko of IR "Freedom Finance".
It is worth saying that in fact GM is not completely left the Russian market. Concern saves assembly premium models at the facilities of Kaliningrad "Avtotor." In addition, the Americans did not refuse co-production with AvtoVAZ on GM-AvtoVAZ, which is quite logical: in this project investments have been made long ago, and there is high level of localization.
And it must be understood that the closure of American missions brands in Russia does not mean that the dealerships with these brands will not be able to continue to trade them. They just are not authorized dealers.
Third year of crisis
The Russian car market is experiencing the third year of the crisis. Sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles began to fall further in 2013 (5%), all fell in 2014 (by 10.3%, not fall greatly aided earned recycling program). And the first few months of this year showed that in 2015, subsidence can be truly catastrophic. Experts expect the fall by 35-45% this year. Thus, the association "Russian Automobile Dealers" believe that car sales could collapse this year to the level of 2009 - to 1.5 million cars against 2.5 million in 2014. May close one thousand dealerships.
The sharp decline in demand for cars in this year was for obvious reasons. Devaluation of the ruble has forced automakers to seriously raise the price of the car. Also fall in the ruble led to a reduction of income Russians. Plus increase the key rate by the Central Bank has led to higher prices and tightening of car loans, and more than half the cars it was bought on borrowed money.
Go weak model
SsangYong is actually not the first who had to stop the import of foreign cars imported to Russia. Just this brand managed to hold out a little longer. Number of weak brands did it last year. The crisis puts everything in its place - weak brands and unprofitable production is always closed, the strongest survive - successful models and well-formed production process.
So, in the spring and summer of 2014 the Russian market went Ukrainian automobile "Bogdan" and ZAZ, which were supplied to Russia Cherkassky Automobile Plant and ZAZ. In Ukraine, the auto market has died literally in the last year.
In August 2014 Chrysler Group vehicles stopped supplying Dodge, because for half a year, Russians bought a total of 26 new minivans Dodge Journey.
Volkswagen had to sacrifice a niche brand SEAT, covering its import in the Russian Federation. In this brand at all a bad history of entering the Russian market - it was the fourth attempt, and also failure. Also in the summer had to stop production in the Russian line of models Skoda Fabia (also included in the VW), and this year to stop the supply of Fabia hatchback and kompaktven Roomster.
Peugeot Citroen had to abandon the sale of cars Citroen DS5 and Peugeot RCZ in Russia, Honda this year stopped supplying Civic-hatchback and Crosstour, and Mazda - just recently - the supply of the Mazda 3.
And Volvo Trucks, whose plant in Kaluga, there had to stop the assembly of trucks and fire 30% of employees.
This trend may continue - from the Russian market will go some models that do not cause the interest of the consumer. Corporations will reduce the range, leaving only those models for which there is the most stable demand. However, the complete withdrawal of the Russian market, as it suddenly makes American GM, not a speech.
The same Volkswagen, for example, donated brand SEAT and three models of the brand Skoda, but at the Russian plant is still going on the whole a great number of models. This Volkswagen Tiguan, Polo sedan, Skoda Rapid, Volkswagen Touareg and Volkswagen Multivan, as well as cars Audi A6, A7, A8 and Q5, Q7. And at the facilities of GAZ Group - Skoda Yeti, Skoda Octavia and Volkswagen Jetta.
Many foreign automakers (as opposed to the American GM) understand that the prospects for the Russian car great, you just have to wait and wait for the crisis, when the market starts to grow again. Then the range of models will begin to expand again.
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Source:
http://www.vzglyad.ru/economy/2015/3/19/735289.html
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GM move is important.
It is war on Russia.
IZAKOVIC
