(Giampiero Venturi)
10/11/16
http://www.difesaonline.it/geopolitica/tempi-venturi/yemen-le-guerra-diventa-globale-mentre-legitto-guarda-mosca
On 9 October, two anti-ship missiles launched by Houthi rebels have targeted the American destroyer USS Mason to the height of the Strait of Bab al Mandeb, the Red Sea, close to the Yemeni coast. The weapons have missed the mark, according to reports from the Pentagon, and the ship has not returned fire.
Just days before the support vessel HSV2 was hit and set on fire by other anti-ship missiles launched by the Houthi rebels near the port of Mocha. Local sources indicated the cargo ship as supplies of US-owned but leased by the naval forces of the United Arab Emirates for the occasion (remember that Abu Dhabi is officially out of the coalition in Saudi driving from June 2016).
These two would be enough news to synthesize the state in one of the hottest areas of the world geopolitically.
Let's step back.
In the southern part, the Red Sea chokes in the Strait of Bab al Mandab, a large funnel no more than 20 km. The Yemeni shore is in the hands of forces loyal to Saleh who fight against the Sunni coalition. The Houthi militia control all the western regions of the country, from the air port of Mocha and Hudaydah, up and over the border with Saudi.
The southwest coast of the Red Sea instead divided between Djibouti (with the US base of Le Monier) and Eritrea, whose governments have a pro Riad position, albeit limited to logistical support. Even some of the nearby islands of the Straits (Zuqar and Hanish) are in the hands of forces Hadi, a Sunni president supported by the coalition and the West.
From what one intuits how crucial the ongoing confrontation in the west of Yemen and the fury of the Saudi air force against its own rebels objectives (with massacres of civilians continue ...) concentrated along the coastal cities.
The military capabilities of the militia of Shiite Houthi and generally pro Saleh forces are in continuous progress. In addition to the Chinese anti-ship missiles (those terra-earth are devastating for months the bases Saudi) would be changing, thanks to the support of Iran and Hezbollah, especially the expertise in terms of special naval forces. A body of raiders Houthi divers would be trained by Hezbollah for its attacks to be carried out in the Red Sea. Numbers, between propaganda and silence, it is impossible to have reliable data.
The fact is part of a more general framework.
The Saudi invasion of Yemen had to be a blitzkrieg designed to isolate the Shiite rebels on inland mountains in the country and to restore the power of the Sunni Hadi. In fact it has resulted in a humanitarian disaster that has lasted almost two years.
The Saudi military difficulties have increased the instability that right on the Red Sea coast finds its most critical point: in the western regions of Yemen rebels are strong and keep in check an area from the strategic value globally.
It takes some data.
The Strait of Bab al Mandab south, corresponds the Suez Canal to the north. Suez goes to 8% of the world's maritime traffic and 5% of the petroleum traffic. With its 100 ships per day (up to a doubling of the 2015 Channel it was only 50) is the most important global maritime knot, any tonnage. After the expansion work, traditionally a lot of traffic bound for Panama, passes for the Red Sea and the trend is rising.
Yemen's war, can therefore have repercussions on the world economy?
Definitely yes.
The US took notice and sent reinforcements to the Fifth Fleet, as the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. The USS Mason, of Yemeni missile target, is part of it.
The American presence in the area is strong and growing. In addition to the base of Aden (October 12 is 15 years by the attack on the destroyer USS Cole, docked right in Aden), is the island of Socotra and the aforementioned Djibouti.
Rather than a strategic deterrent, the American action, however, seems a run for cover. In the regional context, the situation is far from smooth, the only military presence seems of little use if not supported by a long-term geopolitical design.
In this regard and in relation to the importance of Suez, it remains to be seen Egypt's role.
Al Sisi was one of the patrons of the Sunni coalition pro Hadi. Its support to Saudi Arabia, however, is integrated into a geopolitical situation far more complex.
Egypt, wounded by Islamic extremism that is rampant in Sinai, is at the forefront in the fight against international terrorism. Bitter enemy of the Muslim Brotherhood, supports Haftar that the fighting in Libya. The position taken poses Cairo in friction with the West, guardian of the semi-Islamist government in Tripoli. It also puts in friction with Turkey instead has excellent relations with Riyadh.
Not only. Despite official denials, for months talking about possible Russian military bases on the territory of Egypt. Relations between Al Sisi and Putin are great as well as trade relations between the two countries. No coincidence that the Mistral built in France and intended originally to Russia, are now equipped with Egyptian but Kamov helicopters provided by Moscow.
Who then is Egypt?
Cairo plays a game of chess independently, protecting their own interests, depending on the case. If Yemen has an official position of pro-Western and anti-Iranian, Libya is exposed and gives a nod to Russia. The fact that Moscow flirt with Iran in the round, it looks like a short circuit, but it is not: just as an example, Egypt has spoken in favor of the Russians raid in Syria (the same position of Tehran) with a momentum as to create discontent in Washington.
Very likely that in the Yemen War Cairo defending its direct interests, not generic ones of the West, demonstrating an exceptional diplomatic dynamism. also likely that a follow-up contact with Ankara, through the credits that Erdogan has won in Moscow.
With a foot in both Al Sisi it is held tight especially Suez, vital to its coffers. The ship tolls (around 150,000 euro in passage) are an essential resource for Egypt: after remittances and tourism is the third of the national budget item.
In conclusion, it would be appropriate to interpret what is happening in Yemen according to the importance it deserves. Behind the atrocious local conflict on which blow regional sponsors Saudi Arabia and Iran, we have here is a clash of the economic and geopolitical consequences of much wider scope.
Only countries that have political foresight will reap long-term benefits.
(Photo: U.S. Navy - AMN)
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IZAKOVIC