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STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - January 4, 2000

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STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update January 4, 2000

Russia and Yugoslavia Prepare to Test NATO

Summary

Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is once again reviving nationalism in order to divert attention away from Yugoslavia's domestic woes. This time the focus is on the continuing problems that NATO faces in maintaining order in Kosovo. It appears that Russia and Yugoslavia are teaming up to put NATO in an impossible corner. They plan to make NATO live by the very agreement it forced on Yugoslavia at the end of last year's war, which would allow Yugoslav troops to return to Kosovo - causing immediate chaos from Kosovar Albanians. Or, they plan to make NATO violate the agreement by refusing Yugoslavia's return, thus painting NATO and its members as hypocrites when they speak of the international rule of law.

Analysis

Yugoslavia's official Tanjug news agency announced Dec. 28 that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic had promoted a number of officers [ http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c0001040104.htm ], raising some to the rank of general, reshuffled a number of senior commands and decorated military units and individuals. The announcement came just four days after Yugoslavia's parliament adopted its 2000 budget. The parliament had allocated 73 percent of the $1.94 billion total to finance the Yugoslav army. A week earlier, the Serbian assembly had adopted the republic's 2000 budget of $2.49 billion, of which nearly 25 percent was earmarked for the Milosevic-controlled police force.

Two days after the announcement about the military, on Dec. 30, Milosevic said that Yugoslavia was determined to hold onto Kosovo. In an interview with the Politka daily, as reported by Tanjug, Milosevic said that the presence of NATO troops in the Serbian province was "temporary." Reviving his nationalistic rhetoric, he said, "We must put up with it and show great patience." He added, "no one can take Kosovo from us."

Milosevic's comments reiterated those of Gen. Nebojsa Pavkovic, head of Yugoslavia's Third Army, who said two weeks ago that his troops would go back into Kosovo, probably in June, as authorized by a NATO agreement with Yugoslavia reached at the conclusion of last year's war.

Playing into Milosevic's hand, U.S. Gen. Wesley Clark, supreme commander of NATO forces in Europe, immediately ruled out any return of the Yugoslav army to Kosovo, in an interview released the same day. Clark told the Montenegrin weekly newspaper Monitor that "the Yugoslav Army will not be authorized to return to Kosovo." He said, "If by chance it tries, it will be prevented."

Nevertheless, under the June 15, 1999, military technical agreement between NATO and Belgrade, and the subsequent Annex 2 of U.N. resolution 1244, a small, lightly armed contingent of Yugoslav soldiers and police is authorized to return to Kosovo in June 2000 to guard cultural sites and Yugoslavia's borders as well as aid in the clearing of minefields.

In making these aggressive statements, Milosevic is invoking a familiar strategy of generating nationalistic fervor to detract attention from serious domestic problems, such as the reconstruction of critical infrastructure and the revitalization of the economy. Milosevic has consistently attempted to provoke the United States into a diplomatic confrontation in order to maintain his position of power. To this point, he has succeeded in turning the sanctions, the possible succession of Montenegro and the continued violence in Kosovo to his favor. When a crisis isn't pressing, Milosevic raises the public's awareness of the NATO intervention by holding awards ceremonies and having the Yugoslav army hold special operations and army training exercises, some near the Kosovo border. [ http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c9912032031.htm ].

However, this new round of confrontation with the West is different due to the re-emergence of Russia in Yugoslav diplomacy. On Dec. 22, four days after Duma elections, in a key victory for interim Russian President Vladimir Putin and the nationalist centrist movement in Russia, Russian policy toward Kosovo began to shift.

ITAR-Tass news agency reported Dec 22 that the head of the Defense Ministry's Main Directorate for International Military Cooperation, Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov, said that Russia "will revise the forms and degree of its participation," if NATO does not comply with its obligations. However, he added, "Russia is not considering any ways of its withdrawal and exit from Kosovo."

NATO's agreement in Kosovo was to let the Yugoslav army eventually return. Ivashov made it clear that if NATO doesn't live up to its agreement, Russia would not withdraw troops but may "stop cooperating."

Not coincidentally, the next day Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, at the head of a delegation of Russian officers, arrived in Belgrade for talks with Milosevic focused on bilateral relations, Kosovo and other issues affecting southeastern Europe. At a military reception in Beli Dvor following talks, Milosevic decorated prominent Russian officers for their contribution to the development of relations between the armed forces of the two countries. Milosevic also awarded Sergeyev and Gen. Anatoly Kvashnin the Yugoslav Star Order of the First Degree.

On Dec. 24, Sergeyev met with Gen. Klaus Reinhardt, the commander of NATO's KFOR peacekeeping troops, in Kosovo's capital of Pristina. He reiterated the clause in the military-technical agreement, allowing the Yugoslav army and police to return to Kosovo. As well, on Dec. 30 - the same day Milosevic vowed to re- enter Kosovo and Clark vowed to stop him if he tried - Yugoslav Defense Minister Pavle Bulatovic said that Yugoslavia would seek greater military cooperation with Russia to boost its capability. The Belgrade daily Vecernje Novosti also reported that same day that Sergeyev had discussed the possible shipment of modern Russian anti-aircraft missiles and Sukhoi-27 and MiG-29 combat planes during his recent visit to Yugoslavia.

To a lesser degree, these developments point to a small domestic victory for Milosevic by detracting attention away from Yugoslavia's economic woes. It is also a victory for Russian nationalists disenchanted by Yeltsin's capitulation to the West over Kosovo. Also, it puts the Russians in a strong position in Yugoslavia through threats to pullout of the international peacekeeping force. It provides them with a lever to use against NATO and especially the United States. But most importantly, for both Russia and Yugoslavia, these moves put the United States and the rest of NATO in an awkward position, forcing NATO to choose between adhering to or breaking the military technical agreement.

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