Seismologist Warns of Moderate Earthquakes in Bay Area

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - A scientist predicted that mid-size
earthquakes will soon rumble through the San Francisco area
and another said Seattle's recent quake was no surprise.

Tousson Toppozada, of the state Department of Conservation,
based his projection on the last two centuries of Bay Area
quakes, including four major ones dating back to 1838.

Toppozada could not say when or where specific earthquakes
would occur, but he told the Seismological Society of
America at an annual meeting held Wednesday to expect

temblors in the range of 5.5 to 6.0 fairly soon.

Art Frankel, of the United States Geological Survey in
Golden, Colo., said Thursday that pinpointing earthquakes in
advance is impossible but developing hazard maps can help
minimize an area's losses.

"We've sort of gotten beyond earthquake prediction in a
way," Frankel said. "We don't need to know the exact time of
the earthquake. We can prepare for it ahead of time."

Seattle's 6.8-magnitude Nisqually earthquake in February
caused $2 billion in damage and about 400 injuries. It was
fairly deep - centered about 33 miles beneath the earth's
surface - limiting its destructive ability.

"Well before Nisqually, we knew there was a big hazard for
these type of earthquakes," Frankel said. "We didn't expect
it to be particularly destructive, and the ground motions
that were seen from this earthquake were more or less in
line with what we expected."

AP-ES-04-19-01 2101EDT

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